# Where Will BTC Go After Falling to $80,000? A Brief Analysis of the 4 Most Likely Scenarios

By [Christopher](https://paragraph.com/@-christopher) · 2025-03-10

bitcoin, btc

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Based on different market perspectives and three time frames, the following four scenarios are most likely to unfold for Bitcoin：

### Scenario 1: No Catalyst and Gradual Decline

The announcement of the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is a milestone, but the actual capital inflow is modest. Without new catalysts, as market enthusiasm wanes and funds shift to other assets, a gradual sell-off may occur.  
**Time Frame:** 1-8 weeks  
**Impact:** Low to moderate, but prolonged  
**Key Indicators:** Declining ETF inflows, weakening holding interest, liquidity contraction.

### Scenario 2: Animal Spirits and Relief Rally

The Bitcoin reserve could still trigger a short-term emotional upturn, drawing renewed attention from traditional finance. If MicroStrategy announces a stock issuance to purchase Bitcoin, coupled with a rising stock market, it could trigger a brief but sharp price spike.  
**Time Frame:** Next 7-14 days  
**Impact:** Moderate, but short-lived  
**Key Indicators:** Surging ETF inflows, MSTR stock issuance, rising stock market.

### Scenario 3: Increased Adoption

Even if the reserve doesn't immediately create positive capital flows, it sends a strong signal: retail investors see progress in Bitcoin adoption; institutions receive dovish signals and may accelerate their entry; banks, insurers, and other nations might view this as an early signal to include BTC on their balance sheets.  
**Time Frame:** 3 months+  
**Impact:** Low single-trigger probability, but potentially disruptive  
**Key Indicators:** Increased institutional exposure, pension fund entry, sovereign wealth fund purchases.

### Scenario 4: Liquidity-Driven Gradual Uptrend

Some believe that the M2 money supply is the true driver of Bitcoin prices. The current M2 has bottomed out and is rapidly rebounding, with historical data showing that BTC prices typically lag liquidity trends by about 20 days. If this logic holds, Bitcoin may enter a volatile upward trend in the coming weeks. However, skeptics argue that not all liquidity from the broad money supply (M2) will flow into Bitcoin and other risk assets. The counterargument is that Bitcoin was created to absorb such liquidity, making this correlation an important reference.  
**Time Frame:** 20-40 days  
**Impact:** Moderate, stable upward trend  
**Key Indicators:** Continued M2 expansion, Treasury General Account (TGA) contraction, stablecoin inflows.

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*Originally published on [Christopher](https://paragraph.com/@-christopher/where-will-btc-go-after-falling-to-dollar80,000-a-brief-analysis-of-the-4-most-likely-scenarios)*
