Bitcoin halving is one of the most significant cyclical events in the crypto market. Occurring every four years, it reduces block rewards by half, affecting miners’ profitability and often driving substantial shifts in market sentiment and price action. With the 2024 halving approaching, discussions about its potential impact are intensifying. But can historical data reliably predict this cycle’s outcome?

1. Historical Post-Halving Market Trends

Looking at the past three halvings (2012, 2016, and 2020), a fairly consistent pattern emerges:

Pre-halving, the market typically experiences a gradual uptrend.
6 to 12 months post-halving, a bull run tends to follow, often leading to new all-time highs.
Afterwards, the market undergoes a bubble burst, leading to a bearish correction.

For instance, following the 2020 halving, Bitcoin surged from around $8,000 to an all-time high of $69,000 within a year, only to experience a major pullback in 2022. Similar patterns played out in the previous halving cycles.

2. Will the 2024 Halving Follow the Same Trend?

While historical data suggests a pattern, the market environment in 2024 is different from previous cycles:

Macroeconomic Factors: Global interest rate policies, inflation, and geopolitical risks now play a more prominent role.
Institutional Investors’ Influence: Unlike in 2016 and 2020, the market has seen a significant influx of institutional capital, potentially altering price dynamics.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs and Derivatives: The launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs may shift supply-demand dynamics, leading to a different market reaction to the halving.

3. Is Halving Still a Bullish Signal?

From a long-term perspective, halving remains a key event that reduces Bitcoin’s inflation rate, which historically has driven price appreciation. However, unlike previous halvings, the market may have already “priced in” the event to some extent, meaning short-term price reactions might not be as dramatic as before.

Conclusion

Although past halvings have consistently preceded bull markets, the 2024 market landscape is unique. While Bitcoin's long-term scarcity-driven value proposition remains intact, short-term market moves will likely be influenced more by macroeconomic trends and market structure changes. For investors, avoiding irrational FOMO and staying cautious during market euphoria might be the best approach to navigating this halving cycle.

English Version: Bitcoin Halving and Market Cycles – Does History Still Hold