# epochal wealth #1

By [0xChancellor](https://paragraph.com/@0xchancellor) · 2023-11-19

---

This is a manifesto I’m writing for myself to reflect back on in Q4 2025, when I’ve made revanchist dynastic epochal generational wealth.

**Performance to date**

I’ve been tracking the performance of my bags since Nov 2020. It’s now been 3 years:

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/6e1f20011572be31649536e44d835b7f21957955e603b821a19f39f89b3a4828.png)

Unit price = 252 = return adjusted for capital inflow (eg savings being deployed) and outflow (eg buying a car), a purer measure of return.

Net worth = 314 = how much money I actually got.

Three take aways:

*   I have never lost more than I put in
    
*   I have 2.5-3.0x’d my bags during this period
    
*   I’ve spent the last 2 years crawling back to my previous higher watermark reached in Nov 2021, and still not there yet on unit price basis.
    

**Goal**

My goal is to 5x my bags from today to the end of this cycle. And keep it.

My time horizon is 24 months, based on picotop in Q4 2025.

**Portfolio allocation**

My target allocation for this cycle is:

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/875e0fab1548af5c011ba4dc65232349be111507edf430a86170aa6793fc6941.png)

Cash: Money set aside to buy 12 months of runway to focus on crypto full-time. To re-assess after 6 months.

BTC: There is a chance that BTC outperforms ETH this cycle, but I’m not willing to bet on it. I also have meaningful exposure to BTC via my retirement account (401(k) in the US) and that’s enough.

ETH: ETHBTC at bottoming support level of 0.055. Expect ETHBTC to outperform in bull phase of the cycle. Expect spot ETF approved in the US by mid-2024. Crypto native yield attractive to tardfi. Less capital needed vs BTC for price to rally.

SOL: relative value catchup play to ETH. Hedge to modular roll-up smart contract approach not getting meaningful traction by late 2025. Most people don’t care about decentralisation. Anatoly is loved. A diehard community forged by the pain inflicted from FTX and a 97% drawdown to $8 SOL. Proto-danksharding won’t be ready in 2025, ETH L2 continue to offer subpar user experience vs Solana.

COIN: best public market bet for crypto exposure. Brian is bald.

LDO: ETH beta, to outperform ETH late cycle and/or when the LSD narrrative gets picked up by tardfi.

Active: Money I will be managing actively to ride narratives and make outsized returns relating to core HODL positions.

**Price targets**

My price targets for base / bull / bear case scenarios for the peak of this cycle are:

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/b7dd4b7c8eb2a9bd6fc843a0b6f95859e4b8c389bc669a3b1620712377dcf51b.png)

Probability: I assign probability of 60%/20%/20% to Base/Bull/Bear cases respectively.

Base: price targets that I think are most likely for the upcoming cycle.

Bull: upper range of my price target expectations, but not unreasonable.

Bear: Based on previous all-time high (ATH) prices.

In setting these target prices, historical ETHBTC, SOLETH, LDOETH ratios were also checked and they seem to fall within historical breakout ranges.

**Target outcome**

This is what the end result will look like, based on illustrative $1m starting capital:

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/e2346284723538bb9243b4a9942151889a568d84faa5067e0db176afd6ad8252.png)

Put in $1m, get out $6.0m.

Applying a 15% discount for not being able to time the top perfectly, end outcome is $5.1m, or 5.1x return.

Here are the 3 individual scenarios that make up the weighted outcome:

Base case (60% probability)

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/fd5d3b93aa6438b52060108dcbca56e8880ff04b1c47861b3013594a79bc22c0.png)

Bull case (20% probability)

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/c121a24bb9d69b6eefeae539d6a52be5efe0504f8363278744eac2224096e201.png)

Bear case (20% probability)

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/543fcc86f1d9c4402b105e3d7d78408f9a700d22e04574dbdfe5d80573bca3b0.png)

That’s the plan.

Time to fucking execute,

0xChancellor

---

*Originally published on [0xChancellor](https://paragraph.com/@0xchancellor/epochal-wealth-1)*