# Bitcoin: Who's Really Trading? - An Analysis of Trading Volume By [0xDoki](https://paragraph.com/@0xdok) · 2024-08-21 bitcoin, binance, crypto trading --- Bitcoin, the world’s first decentralized digital currency, operates on a 24/7 global market, making it unique compared to traditional assets like stocks, which are bound by regional trading hours. Understanding who is actively trading and when helps traders better understand their competition and make more informed decisions. In this report, **trading volumes** **will be the only metric** that is analyzed to identify the characteristics of Bitcoin traders and market dynamics on Binance, shedding light on broader global market participation. ### 1\. **Hypothesis** Based on the following observations: 1. The trading hours for China's shares market are 09:30-11:30 and 13:00-15:00, while for the U.S. stock market, it’s 09:30-16:00. Both markets show a common pattern: in most days, the morning hours see the highest trading volume. 2. Most regions around the world follow a typical 9-to-6 workday. 3. Major U.S. hedge funds are based in New York time zone. From these, we hypothesize that the majority of professional traders or trading institutions prefer to trade in the morning hours. This assumption will guide our analysis to identify which countries are most active in Bitcoin trading, given that it operates 24/7. I selected several key trading regions and extracted the hourly BTC trading volume from Binance, the largest crypto CEX, for each time zone: New York, Japan/Korea, Shanghai, Dubai, and London, for past two years data. ### **2\. Ranking of Trading Volume for Different Regions During Morning Hours** ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/20c20595f4ee10016823d0ed8979838f.png) Total Trading Volume by Regions for Past Two Years As shown in the chart, in morning hours of different regions, total trading volume in U.S. > UK > Japan/Korea > China > the Middle East. It appears that the U.S. plays a dominant role in Bitcoin trading. This result suggests though crypto trading is global, it is still heavily influenced by U.S. traders, particularly in the New York region. ### **3\. The Impact of U.S.'s Trader on the Market** To better understand New York's influence on the market, I split the data into two sets: one for New York during Daylight Saving Time (UTC-4) and another for Standard Time (UTC-5). ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/62815699135825ae0f787e5953e6cd99.png) Bitcoin Trading Volume: Daylight Saving Time vs. Standard Time Comparing these time periods, we observe that when New York operates on UTC-4 (Daylight Saving Time), the highest trading volume occurs at 10 AM (UTC-4). However, when New York shifts to UTC-5 (Standard Time), the peak trading volume moves to 11 AM (UTC-4). This shift in peak trading time shows that when New York's local time changes, the trading volume adjusts accordingly. It suggests that a significant portion of Bitcoin trading activity is driven by New York traders, who tend to execute their trades at specific hours (10 a.m at their local time). When New York shifts its local time, the global trading volume peak shifts too. ### 4\. Weekday vs. Weekend Comparison ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/a1f6106adbb73b40d985a9f49547604f.png) Bitcoin Trading Volume: Weekday vs. Weekend In this graph, the blue line represents weekend trading volume, while the yellow line represents weekday trading volume. It’s clear that trading volume is significantly higher on weekdays compared to weekends. ### 5\. **Three-Year Bitcoin Volume and Price Trends on Binance** ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/aeb828a8ed80c20b17c293fa917a67f5.png) Bitcoin Volume and Price Trends The volume-price data for Bitcoin on Binance over the past three years reveals some key trends. The volume trend line indicates significant increases in trading volume during the periods from July to November 2022 and from December 2022 to March 2023. From July 8, 2022 to March 21, 2023 Binance removed BTC trading fees, which contributed to the rise in trading volume. In November 2022, the collapse of FTX led to a mass exodus of traders, causing a sharp drop in trading volume, which then rebounded a month later. During this 6 months period, Bitcoin hit its lowest price, around $16,000, at the same time substantial buying (corresponding rise in transaction volume) occurred at this point. ### 6\. Conclusion Summary: This report highlights the significant influence of U.S. traders, particularly those in the New York time zone, on Bitcoin trading volumes on Binance. The data reveals a clear pattern: trading activity peaks during U.S. morning hours, with shifts in time zones due to Daylight Saving Time further emphasizing the dominance of New York traders. This trend suggests that despite Bitcoin's global 24/7 market, U.S. market participants play a pivotal role, especially during weekday trading hours, which consistently see higher volumes compared to weekends. Additionally, the analysis underscores the impact of major events, such as Binance’s fee adjustments and the collapse of FTX, on market dynamics. These events caused notable fluctuations in trading volumes, illustrating how quickly the market can respond to both regional and global factors. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, understanding these dynamics becomes crucial for traders looking to navigate the market effectively. Reference: Fetching data using Python and Binance API [https://app.hex.tech/ae2d9fe2-5af1-4c21-b00f-32e9f95f456d/hex/0bd18ea4-b09a-4b6a-b3c7-618d3653886a/draft/logic](https://link) --- *Originally published on [0xDoki](https://paragraph.com/@0xdok/bitcoin-analysis)*