# Source of Truth By [Shushant](https://paragraph.com/@0xshushant) ยท 2025-07-28 --- How prediction markets revolutionize news consumption The news landscape has drastically changed over the past 20 years. * Before television, people relied on newspapers to be informed about the world * Then, news channels dominated due to the ability to provide real time news reporting * However, as the demand for real time news scaled, social media networks provide more accessible news reporting, with even faster real time updates about events happening across the world * From here, the future of news consumption will transition to build off of real time prediction markets, such as polymarket [https://polymarket.com/](https://polymarket.com/) ### At a Glance * Prediction markets provide truth faster than news or twitter due to how people are financially incentivized to bet on information they know about a market which may not be priced in yet * This results in extremely fast, unbiased news reporting for anyone browsing the website * This revolutionary tech is already being used within bloomberg terminal and quoted by grok to provide accurate real time data about events * * * ### How it works: * A market is created by Polymarket. Example: "Who will win the 2024 presidential election" * People can buy and sell shares of an outcome between $0-$1 (Eg: Donald Trump wins). The price is based on the supply and demand of the market * When the event resolves, the winner(s) of the market can redeem each winning outcome they own for $1/share ![Prediction market for the 2024 US presidential election winner](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/fea7154b90cac0c16349378820388a44f8b34e530adb8792d1779bf32ffa79ee.png) Prediction market for the 2024 US presidential election winner * * * ### Why it works * News from the media is often biased, where certain stories are amplified and others are downplayed or omitted based on the media company's agenda * By attaching a financial outcome to a news event, people can put money on what they believe or know * Advanced actors who have insider or early information have financial incentive to bet on that information, which updates the market outcomes to better reflect the actual probabilities of each outcome occurring, based on ALL information available. Example: * Market called "Will Taylor Swift drop a single today" is created * Advanced user goes to Taylor Swifts website, and sees that it was recently updated to market the new single that launched, even though no information has been posted to social media or music platforms * Recognizing that the Swiftie team is now preparing to release the single, the user can bet "YES" on the market * For the average user, they see that the market for Taylor Swift dropping a single has spiked in probability and can reasonably assume that Taylor Swift is most likely dropping a single today * Having financial incentive to trade on news you know means prediction markets better forecast events compared to news organizations. * For the 2024 presidential election, polymarket had effectively priced in the outcome of the election prior to 11 pm on election day (with outcomes moving towards the singularity since 6pm) * In comparison, AP news was not able to call the election until 10:34 am the next day ![The 2024 election was much faster to resolve on polymarket compared to reputable news sources such as AP news](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/da8954d8e9ad45c37dfd4efef95bf6bf144068f2c0636ca0cd4568691201e4b7.png) The 2024 election was much faster to resolve on polymarket compared to reputable news sources such as AP news ![AP news was not able to call the 2024 election until 10:34am the next day](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/083fe3036cdbb1c3ad28f68e7258ac05fab265c64aba50b47ad99c7c353b5388.png) AP news was not able to call the 2024 election until 10:34am the next day * * * ### Why do it onchain? * The resiliency of a prediction platform relies on the reliability on the platform to resolve the correct outcome, and create a variety of controversial markets * When done in a centralized manner, the platform is more susceptible to censorship from a government from publishing a market which may portray them in a bad light * When resolving markets, subjective resolutions are at the mercy of the company to decide. When decentralizing the resolution process, outcomes can be decided by a broad "What does the average person think" * An open platform for market creation allows for anyone to create markets on any number of controversial issues they want the truth on. Examples * Chance of a ceasefire between India and Pakistan / Israel and Palestine / Ukraine and Russia * Who will be listed in the Epstein files * Chance of tariffs being implemented * * * ### Conclusion * Financial markets often indicate the macro state of the world with all pieces of information "priced in" * By harnessing the same incentive structure and applying it to predictions, we get accurate, real time forecasting of news in an easily digestible way * By building this on blockchain infrastructure, we get unbiased, un-censorable markets in which we can base as the true **source of truth** Subscribe for more bullposting. [Subscribe](null) --- *Originally published on [Shushant](https://paragraph.com/@0xshushant/source-of-truth)*