# [NFA]Polygon – $MATIC Analysis By [3HOUSE](https://paragraph.com/@3house) · 2023-05-04 --- **Author: 3House member @DwaThk** Fundamental overview -------------------- Just as the bank run panic started to fade away, **First Republic Bank** started the fire once again, closing on May 1, 2023. Due to bad investments and pressure from rate hikes, more and more banks are getting their feet burnt. Yesterday we had the **FOMC meeting** which increased the interest rate with another 25bps, which puts even more pressure on the banks and cut early bull runners and brought them to reality. As **Jerome Powell**, chairman of the Federal Reserve, was giving his speech about the current economic situation, manipulation in the markets started to appear. First, forward guidance on the direction of interest rates, he left the door open for additional rate hikes. FED committee doesn’t see inflation going so quickly and further actions will need to be taken to bring it back to stability. There is a difference in Powell opinion and the staff one, as Jerome believes we will mostly avoid a **recession** while his team thinks a modest recession is more likely. All this craziness in the financial markets brought more money into cryptocurrencies as we’ve seen record highs in the number of **Bitcoin daily transactions.** ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/600373db635c4499cc38f1a4aa665388a7050c8b4fa6ce30dfdf82f0046c93b5.png) Now, onto Matic. **Polygon** (previously known **as Matic Network**) is a Layer 2 scaling solution for Ethereum, designed to address the scalability issues of the Ethereum blockchain. The platform is backed by major players in the industry such as **Binance** and **Coinbase**, and its goal is to stimulate mass adoption of cryptocurrencies by offering an easy-to-use infrastructure development framework that allows for the creation of globally available decentralized financial applications. At its core, **Polygon** uses a combination of the **Plasma Framework** and proof-of-stake blockchain architecture to enable up to **65,000 transactions per second** on a single side chain with a block confirmation time of less than two seconds. This makes it one of the fastest and most efficient **Layer 2** scaling solutions available today. Polygon, as a Layer 2 scaling solution, relies on a **proof-of-stake consensus mechanism** to ensure the security of its assets. This mechanism involves validators staking their **MATIC tokens** as collateral to become part of the network's PoS consensus mechanism, and in return, they receive MATIC tokens as rewards. Users who do not wish to become validators can delegate their MATIC tokens to other **validators** and still participate in the staking process, earning **staking rewards**. In addition to its technical features, Polygon also has a **native token called MATIC**, which is an **ERC-20** token running on the Ethereum blockchain. The MATIC token is used for payment services on Polygon and as a settlement currency between users who operate within the Polygon ecosystem. Transaction fees on Polygon sidechains are also paid in MATIC tokens. One of the key benefits of using Polygon is that it allows developers to build decentralized applications (**DApps**) on a foundation that can scale to a much larger ecosystem. The Plasma framework gives Polygon the potential to house an unlimited number of dApps on its infrastructure without experiencing the normal drawbacks that are common on proof-of-work blockchains. So far, Polygon has attracted more than **50** dApps to its PoS-secured Ethereum sidechain. Overall, Polygon is an exciting project that offers a lot of promise for the future of blockchain development. By providing a fast, efficient, and easy-to-use infrastructure for building decentralized applications, Polygon could help to **stimulate mass adoption of cryptocurrencies** and bring the benefits of blockchain technology to a wider audience. Technical Overview ------------------ **Bitcoin** is a main watcher as it always guides the market of cryptocurrencies. After giving it time to catch a breath after crazy inside and algo trading at the FOMC meeting, we are given a few opportunities. By marking our levels of interest and liquidity zones, BTC presents us **two scenarios.** ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/efe4896253371a88b2859c32d97604a46a4a943cdb63cd9ae4b660adf1955dad.png) A clear **SFP** was formed at 27k level, barely touching the naked point of control and sending us to 30k again. Bitcoin is still in a **distribution phase** hence why we are range trading. Price can break the resistance trendline and send us to previous highs if it manages to get through 29.8k level of resistance. ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/fa41134aafcfe5b5473afcd3783561482b4defc90c3c0a8a51845df5918e90be.png) Overall sentiment is bearish due to liquidity sitting in big quantities on the buyingside. Current support trendline looks weak and easy to break, as we failed multiple times to get over 30k again. This struggle gives bears time to fill up their short positions and wait for the ride to **26.5k, last hope for a support by bulls.** Crypto options give us bearish confluence as see huge amounts of calls being sold, meaning a lost in faith for the upside. We can track this data through algorithms created by **Geniidata**, a full-stack, user-friendly platform that enables on-demand data analytics for blockchains and provides cloud-based API and business intelligence services. It offers **great insights** and can give traders a step ahead and look behind the curtains with automatic algos. ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/421017cf1ecbbeb785413dfaef03f8c90588f52839055ebecfe6e87b51054f09.png) Looking at **Matic** chart on a lower timeframe we can analyse price closely and identify the point of control of this **4H range** and sellside liquidity zone. Price is currently sitting at the monthly open. This is a critical moment as if it breaks below monthly open we can open a short position, around **0.98$,** with small size leaving room to dollar cost average later on. **1.005$** is a good level to **DCA** as this is the last daily open and can act as resistance. * **0.938$** is our first take profit, closing a small amount and moving stop loss to break even securing this trade without risks. This is the price mark where we want to see a break of structure to the downside flipping this support into a resistance. * **0.87$** taking 50% of our positions off and monitoring price as this level acts as our big support which is the point of control of the previous weekly range and has a lot of long orders to protect. * **0.79$** this is where we take full profits and enjoy the 3-4R trade, daily orderblock having the chance to flip the price. **STOP LOSS** should take place if the price closes a 4H candle over 1.035$, above the liquidity pool of this small range, or incase BTC breaks the trendline to the upside. ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/89c7e27b194bb4f9d422c176ac3d99568ac1f5240aa07863d6b36900f094f9be.png) ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/7fc1e2cfa8af439da1fee7d52ba96cd8598ca811b1748f7857a3af7fa92ff5af.png) If Bitcoin holds it’s current support and manage to break to the upside, we should have our bullish scenario prepare for **Matic**. We have formed a double bottom, not a very strong one, but it can play out. Buying power not losing steam even if it hits the liquidity pool and sellers being exhausted can boost the price. Change of structure at 1.02$ mark gives us a chance to start a long position with medium sized position. ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/60dd564a12e473751050316aa264f29141f5d7b258abd09fcd66a9f54af34f79.png) * **1.08$** first take profit where we close 25% of the position and moving stops to BE for safety. * **1.15$** second take profit, which sits at the 0.5 mark of the fair value gap left behind by the price dropping too fast and leaving orders unfilled. * **1.21$** closing trade completely as deviation can happen at this price mark and dust away our profits. **TRADE** should be close in a **LOSS** if price finds acceptance under 0.94$ level. _‘The biggest risk of all is not taking one.’ Mellody Hobson, CO-CEO of Ariel Investments_ This is not financial advice, trade at your own risk! ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/1c14836ba8330bf392959d5bd8f327d42bfc1ea87c8d26bcabadaf15ff920e1e.png) --- *Originally published on [3HOUSE](https://paragraph.com/@3house/nfa-polygon-matic-analysis)*