# Why is the h contract warning line drawn so conservatively?

By [AnJoniu](https://paragraph.com/@anjoniu) · 2021-10-17

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After one cycle, the most conservative estimate is that the average cost of positions established by Bazi Jue in the previous cycle should be around 1/5. Then in the 2018-2020 bear market cycle, stick to the Bazi Jue to open positions, and the worst level should be able to make the holding cost around $10,000. So 50,000 dollars is five times that of 10,000 dollars. It is appropriate to stop casting at this position. The top of the previous cycle was $20,000, and the next cycle would conservatively increase the level by a factor of three, so the position of the high-level step would be $60,000. Taking 60 thousand dollars as the watershed is to ensure that the average fluctuation is not loss. The Bazi Jue focuses on building positions. As long as the position is well established, after the price level has reached a level, it doesn't really matter when it will be sold. If there is no consumer demand, it is very good and safe to hold it all the time. Of course, we are talking about Bitcoin. Assets that cannot reach a higher level in each cycle are not within our consideration.

I remember it seems like Howard, a master of value investment, said that selling well is very difficult, but all the problems of not selling well can be made up by buying well.

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*Originally published on [AnJoniu](https://paragraph.com/@anjoniu/why-is-the-h-contract-warning-line-drawn-so-conservatively)*