# 银行暴雷! 暴涨前兆？BTC何去何从

**Published by:** [AnoPeter](https://paragraph.com/@anopeter-2/)
**Published on:** 2023-03-14
**URL:** https://paragraph.com/@anopeter-2/btc

## Content

对于最近发生的一系列事件，首先给大家梳理一下时间线： 3 月 8 日，对加密货币友好的银行 Silvergate Bank 爆雷宣布清盘，币圈大跌，看空情绪加剧 3 月 10 日，专门为硅谷科技公司提供金融服务的硅谷银行(Silicon Valley Bank，全美排名18位)出售 210 亿美元的可销售证券，遭受了 18 亿美元的亏损，疑似存在流动性问题，周四股价暴跌超过 60%，市值一日蒸发 94 亿美元，并即日宣布破产，大量储户无法提取账户储金。 3月11日，USDC、DAI、FRAX、MIM等稳定币相继脱锚，Coinbase，必按等关闭了USDC的美元提款通道，上一个稳定币脱锚的是UST，可以想象市场得有多恐慌，市场动荡剧烈。 3月12日，联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)完成对硅谷银行的清算行动；与硅谷银行破产有关的任何损失都不会由纳税人承担；美联储将向符合条件的存款机构提供额外资金，以确保银行能够满足储户的需求，硅谷银行又可以存取款了，币圈大涨，避险活力金的注入，看多情绪高涨, USDC也回到了锚定价格，恢复正常。比特币流动性储值价值的再验证在目前出金入金的体系以及加密货币的有限之下，加密货币依然依赖主流体系生存。大规模的银行暴雷短期内造成了稳定币脱锚危机并造成宏观市场下行。而美联储的救市救回了银行也挽救了加密货币市场的恐慌情绪。从长期来看，加密货币市场会在很长一段时间内与银行体系保持一致的利害关系。 CZ对美联储的救市行为表示批评。一旦你做了一次救助，你就会陷入进退两难的境地。通过稀释所有公民来“保护消费者”。如果你进行救助，那么银行管理风险的动力为零。当你失败时，你会得到救助。救助鼓励承担越来越大的风险，这需要更多的救助。 作为一个去中心化的市场，加密货币市场长期被视为主流中心化银行体系的替代品。事实上，针对加密货币的长期价值而言，银行体系的危机有利于加密货币的长期发展，银行储户不得不从银行以及其它投资品种逃离，以寻找更加稳定的储值体系，包括黄金与比特币，这是比特币被共识的核心价值所在。 不论主流市场发展如何，加密货币作为储值的备选手段之一的属性不会改变，反而必然随着技术发展而成为更加稳定的趋势。而NFT艺术市场作为加密货币领域目前最为显著的应用，其中的蓝筹产品将在市场中保有长期价值。 硅谷银行、银门银行和签名银行的失败继续在市场上掀起波澜，导致美国银行股暴跌。最近，查尔斯-施瓦布的股票在周一早上停止交易。与此同时，比特币和其他加密货币市场正经历着两位数的反弹，这可能是比特币第一次在风险的环境中反弹。也许这正是比特币的重新体现价值的时刻。比特币网络的创建是对2008年大金融危机的直接回应，当时许多人投资者得政府和金融系统都在与他们作对，而去中心化的金融体系正是为此而生。加密货币市场最终在流动性危机中获益数据来源MacroMicro显示，美国三个月远期利率协议（FRA）和隔夜指数互换利率（OIS）之间的差距，也被称为FRA-OIS利差，这是衡量银行相互借入美元的成本的指标，飙升至54.00，为2020年3月以来最高。FRA-OIS银行间的借贷是银行系统的一个重要组成部分，它帮助银行管理其即时流动性需求。当银行间借贷市场紧张或功能失调时，银行面临更大的流动性风险，这可能导致破产。因此，FRA-OIS利差的急剧上升是系统达到脆弱点的一个迹象。这加强了美联储在下周会议上暂停加息周期的理由，或者选择较小的25个基点的移动，而不是上周预期的50个基点的提高。央行在一年内将官方借贷成本提高了450个基点，使包括加密货币在内的风险资产陷入困境。 加密货币服务提供商Matrixport的研究和战略主管Markus Thielen表示，金融市场压力的迹象可能意味着政府在流动性方面的更多保证。比特币和加密货币，一般来说，被广泛认为是纯粹的流动性游戏。"金融市场压力指标已经上升到十年前欧洲债务危机以来的最高水平。与此同时，衡量为债券组合提供违约保险的成本的信用违约掉期也明显增加。比特币已经受益，因为更多的政府担保可能意味着更多的印钞。" Smugbunny是由设计师Juan Carlos Cuadra创作的3D动画形象，最早出现在苹果官网https://www.apple.com/studio-display/中，并最终被Juan Carlos Cuadra发行为NFT作品。Juan在广告、插图、真人表演、动画、游戏、雕塑和概念艺术方向均有浓厚兴趣与设计声誉。 曾与Disney, Nike, BMW 和 Apple等一系列品牌有着广泛的合作。目前Smugbunny有着三个系列，创世者系列500个，兔子旅行系列4500个，兔子CG动画系列月更不限量。其中创世者系列已经mint完毕，兔子旅行系列即将于3月3日mint。Smugbunny致力于创造VR/AR时代的著名元宇宙IP，并即将于各大品牌方和各界人士展开宣传合作。 项目官网: https://www.smugbunny.io/ 项目推特: twitter.com/Smugbunny_ 项目Discord: https://discord.gg/smugbunny For a series of recent events, let me first give you a quick timeline. On 8 March, Silvergate Bank, a cryptocurrency-friendly bank, burst into flames and announced its liquidation, sending the cryptocurrency world tumbling and bearish sentiment intensifying On 10 March, Silicon Valley Bank (ranked 18th in the US), which specialises in providing financial services to Silicon Valley technology companies, sold $21 billion of marketable securities, suffered a $1.8 billion loss and suspected liquidity problems, with its share price plunging over 60% on Thursday, evaporating $9.4 billion in market value in one day, and declaring bankruptcy on the same day, leaving a large number of depositors unable to withdraw A large number of depositors were unable to withdraw their savings from their accounts. On March 11, USDC, DAI, FRAX, MIM and other stable coins were de-anchored one after another, Coinbase, must press and so on closed the USD withdrawal channel of USDC, the last stable coin to be de-anchored was UST, you can imagine how panic the market had to be, the market turmoil was violent. On March 12, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) completed liquidation actions on Silicon Valley Bank; any losses associated with the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank will not be borne by taxpayers; the Federal Reserve will provide additional funds to eligible depository institutions to ensure that the bank can meet the needs of depositors, Silicon Valley Bank can access its funds again, the cryptocurrency circle soared, the injection of safe-haven vitality gold, bullish sentiment soared, USDC also returned to its anchor price and returned to normal. Revalidation of the stored value of bitcoin liquidity With the current system of outgoing and incoming funds and the limited availability of cryptocurrencies, cryptocurrencies are still dependent on the mainstream system for survival. The massive bank meltdown created a short-term crisis of unanchored stablecoins and caused a macro market downfall. The Fed's bailout saved the banks and saved the cryptocurrency market from panic. In the long term, the cryptocurrency market will remain aligned with the banking system at stake for a long time. CZ is critical of the Fed's bailout. Once you do a bailout, you're in a dilemma. You "protect the consumer" by diluting all citizens. If you do a bailout, then the banks have zero incentive to manage risk. When you fail, you get bailed out. Bailouts encourage greater and greater risk-taking, which requires more bailouts. As a decentralised market, the cryptocurrency market has long been seen as an alternative to the mainstream centralised banking system. Indeed, for the long-term value of cryptocurrencies, the crisis in the banking system favours the long-term growth of cryptocurrencies, with bank depositors having to flee from banks and other investment alternatives in search of a more stable system of stored value, including gold and bitcoin, which is the core value of bitcoin by consensus. Regardless of how the mainstream market develops, the attribute of cryptocurrencies as one of the alternative means of storing value will not change, but will inevitably become more stable as the technology develops. The NFT art market is by far the most prominent application of the cryptocurrency space, and the blue chip products within it will retain their long-term value in the market. The failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank continue to make waves in the market, causing US bank stocks to plummet. Most recently, Charles Schwab's stock stopped trading on Monday morning. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency markets are experiencing a double-digit rally, which may be the first time Bitcoin has rebounded in a risky environment. Perhaps this is bitcoin's moment to reassert its value. The creation of the Bitcoin network was a direct response to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, when many investors had governments and the financial system working against them, and a decentralised financial system was created for this purpose. Cryptocurrency markets eventually benefited from the liquidity crisis Data source MacroMicro showed that the gap between the US three-month forward rate agreement (FRA) and the overnight index swap rate (OIS), also known as the FRA-OIS spread, which is a measure of the cost of banks borrowing dollars from each other, soared to 54.00, the highest since March 2020. https://opensea.io/assets/ethereum/0xCF2A700CE0B877156Fe6Fefbb6F476375f31940c/964 https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FZFRgD-uFy-ohNUpQiojrg https://followin.io/zh-Hans/feed/3376890 https://followin.io/zh-Hans/feed/3379253 https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/03/14/bitcoin-nears-25k-as-interbank-funding-stress-indicator-surges-to-highest-since-covid-crash/

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