# Eurovision 2023 Forecast Post Mortem *Might as well...* By [Anti-Expert](https://paragraph.com/@anti-expert) · 2023-06-07 --- I figured I'd toss my forecast rationale for the [2023 Eurovision competition](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2854-which-country-will-win-eurovision-2023). I actually didn't score so hot with a Brier score of **1.1211...** oof. Essentially a little worse than a cointoss owing to my neglect of this question. I wish I had analyzed the songs earlier rather than just rely on prior results. C'est la vie. [You can listen to the tracks here.](https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZF1DWVCKO3xAlT1Q?si=vP8MgShoSvSwqMigrO8dgA) **FINAL PROBABILITY** **ANSWER:** 17% (-3%) Finland 9% (+2%) Norway 39% (-6%) Sweden 5% (-8%) Ukraine 30% (+15%) Another country Having listened to every track, and from the perspective of a recovering touring musician... here are some thoughts: * _Who the Hell is Edgar_ is weird, but has some tasty elements. * _Heart of Steel_ is easy to see as an obvious nod to the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works siege. Not sure if the timing or sentiments are right this time around. It hit my feels on a few occasions but didn't build into an all encompassing narrative. More of a World Cup jingle or Coca-Cola ad. Not as heroic as it could be, not as sympathetic, not as defiant as it should be. Just sorta Ed Hardy aesthetic. 1.8mil * _Queen of Kings_ renaissance faire girl power, and that is a compliment. * _Tattoo_ probably a favorite owing to wider listenership alone. 53.5 mil plays. * _Évidemment_ very very French. Representative, but modern. One of the few songs that actually feels like its source country. 7.7mil * _Cha Cha Cha_ is annoying as hell, but opens up into something that punches above its weight. Would be surprised yet unsurprised if this won, and would only reinforce my irritation with wider musical tastes. That said, it's like a Finnish Oliver Tree, and I hated it so hard that I started to like it. The bridge is the best part. And the weird hyperpop departure. * _Breaking My Heart_ is my dark horse, I think this is the only track that feels relevant and has the TikTok zoomer backing. Really probably one of the few I actually enjoyed. * _Blood and Glitter_... leave it to zee Germans, at least it's unique! Like Rammstein and Andrew WK with some metal, disco and Future Islands elements. * _DGT_ gets some raw uniqueness points. Feels like the song structure and mixing coming out of Korea. * _Dance_ is good from a complete funk groove perspective. Not a winner, but like a Euro Bruno Mars meets The Midnight. * _We Are One_ ...if you wanted to know what it'd sound like if James Blunt was in U2, then you are in luck. * _Aijā_ into this... got some nice Death From Above 1979/Mutemath undertones to pair with obscure 2000's indie band stylings. * _Because of You_ nails that 90's fashion techno pride pop. Actually refreshing and easily would've been a massive hit staple 30 years ago. Excellent bridge and satisfying chorus. Wouldn't be surprised if the live performance nails it or falls flat. * _Mama ŠČ!_ is a weird one, totally into it. I enlisted my buddy and guitfiddle player to weigh in unbiased. I'll update if I get his take. The bookmakers takes are surely to be considered, they've got their ways but their confidence in _Cha Cha Cha_ is disturbing. Including some Spotify streams with a list of contenders broken down by semis and those that already are included in the final. In the time I've started my deep dive many artists have been eliminated which has given me some opportunity for reflection. Sorry Reiley :( **Semi 1 ** 1 Norway Alessandra "Queen of Kings" **Qualified** 44.2mil 2 Malta The Busker "Dance (Our Own Party)" Did not qualify 1.4mil 3 Serbia Luke Black "Samo mi se spava" (Само ми се спава) **Qualified** 2.4mil 4 Latvia Sudden Lights "Aijā"  Did not qualify 1.6mil 5 Portugal Mimicat "Ai coração" **Qualified** 2mil 6 Ireland Wild Youth "We Are One" Did not qualify 1.5mil 7 Croatia Let 3 "Mama ŠČ!" **Qualified** 1.8mil 8 Switzerland Remo Forrer "Watergun" **Qualified** 2mil 9 Israel Noa Kirel "Unicorn"  **Qualified** 6.4mil 10 Moldova Pasha Parfeni "Soarele și luna" **Qualified** 2mil 11 Sweden Loreen "Tattoo" **Qualified** 53.5mil 12 Azerbaijan TuralTuranX "Tell Me More" Did not qualify 0.85mil 13 Czech Republic Vesna "My Sister's Crown" **Qualified** 6.4mil 14 Netherlands Mia Nicolai Dion Cooper "Burning Daylight" Did not qualify 5.5mil 15 Finland Käärijä "Cha Cha Cha" **Qualified** 18.7mil **Semi 2** 1 Denmark Reiley "Breaking My Heart" 2.6mil 2 Armenia Brunette "Future Lover"  **Qualified** 2.1mil 3 Romania Theodor Andrei "D.G.T. (Off and On)" 1mil 4 Estonia Alika "Bridges" **Qualified** 2.1mil 5 Belgium Gustaph "Because of You" **Qualified** 3.3mil 6 Cyprus Andrew Lambrou "Break a Broken Heart" **Qualified** 2mil 7 Iceland Diljá "Power" 1.5mil 8 Greece Victor Vernicos "What They Say" 0.99mil 9 Poland Blanka "Solo" **Qualified** 10.4mil 10 Slovenia Joker Out "Carpe Diem" **Qualified** 2.3mil 11 Georgia Iru "Echo" 1.2mil 12 San Marino Piqued Jacks "Like an Animal" 0.4mil 13 Austria Teya and Salena "Who the Hell Is Edgar?"  **Qualified** 4.7mil 14 Albania Albina and Familja Kelmendi "Duje" **Qualified** 0.4mil 15 Lithuania Monika Linkytė "Stay" **Qualified** 1.1mil 16 Australia Voyager "Promise" **Qualified** 1.8mil **Final**  France La Zarra "Évidemment" 8mil  Italy Marco Mengoni "Due vite" 49.1mil  Serbia Luke Black "Samo mi se spava" (Само ми се спава) 2.4mil  Spain Blanca Paloma "Eaea" 3.8mil  Germany Lord of the Lost "Blood & Glitter" 3.4mil  Ukraine Tvorchi "Heart of Steel" 2-4mil (split among versions)  United Kingdom Mae Muller "I Wrote a Song" 7.1mil Cumulative streams: 266 I do think _Évidemment_, _Because of You, Solo_ and _Tattoo_ have strong chances. After the fact, another strong factor I'm leaning on is earworminess. --- *Originally published on [Anti-Expert](https://paragraph.com/@anti-expert/eurovision-2023-forecast-post-mortem)*