# Global Liquidity Cycle Cheat-Sheet: Where Are We Right Now?

**Published by:** [Bitcoin Ecosystem](https://paragraph.com/@bitcoin-ecosystem/)
**Published on:** 2025-07-13
**Categories:** liquidity
**URL:** https://paragraph.com/@bitcoin-ecosystem/global-liquidity-cycle-cheat-sheet-where-are-we-right-now

## Content

Why You Should Care (Even If You Hate Macro) Central-bank liquidity is the WD-40 of the world economy.Too much → asset bubbles.Too little → seized pistons (and your date ghosts you). Track the flow and you front-run the pop or the crash.2020-2025 in Four StagesDeluge (2020-2021) – ZIRP + record QE + US$16 trn fiscal bazooka – Global M2 growth fastest since WWIIDry-Out (2021-2022) – 500 bp rate hikes, QT starts, pandemic aid expires – 2022 = worst bond year ever (-17 %)Plateau (2022-2024) – Policy left on “auto-tight” to kill inflationPivot-Beginning (2024-2025) – Global easing starts, though rates remain high – Today: one foot still on the plateau, the other testing the first step downThe 2025 Mid-Year Dashboard (🔴 = off 🟧 = early 🟢 = full-on)Lever20172021Mid-2025NotePolicy Rate Cuts🔴 hiking🟢 emergency ZIRP🟧 first cuts penciled for Q4-25watch Fed/ECB tone shiftQE / QT🟧 Fed taper, others buying🟢 record global QE🟧 QT still on; BoJ buying, PBoC selectiveFed QT continuesFiscal Pulse🔴 neutral🟢 record stimulus🟧 modest new packagesgrid-locked US, targeted AsiaBank Lending Standards🟧 easing🟢 ultra-loose🔴 still tightFed SLOOS >40 % tightUSD Funding Stress🟢 low🔴 repo spike🟧 FRA-OIS ~15 bp>25 bp = red alertEM Liquidity (PBoC RRR)🔴 hikes🟢 cuts🟧 25 bp RRR cut rumoured4000 bn CNY if triggeredCredit Creation🟧 slow🟢 explosive🟧 subduedwaiting for green lightRisk Appetite (VIX)🔴 low vol🟢 meme euphoria🟧 VIX 15-20not yet risk-onCrypto Liquidity🔴 bear🟢 DeFi summer🟧 selective flowsstable-coin supply flatEquity Buybacks🟧 normal🟢 record🟧 still lowawait cheaper fundingCross-Border Flows🔴 strong USD🟢 weak USD🟧 mixedUSD still firmReal-Estate Credit🔴 tightening🟢 boom🔴 global slumpwaiting for policy pivotKey Signals to Watch NextFed/ECB shift to “balanced risks” language → unlocks rate-cut narrativeQT pause or full reinvestment → first net liquidity add since 2022FRA-OIS >25 bp or GC repo spike → forces Fed backstop (S.R.F.)PBoC 25 bp RRR cut → EM liquidity domino #1The Bottom Line We are not back in “deluge” mode. Until more levers flip green, expect continued risk-on / risk-off whipsaws—not full-blown euphoria.

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