# My prediction for Amazon HQ2

By [Brandon Donnelly](https://paragraph.com/@brandondonnelly), 2017-09-08

amazon, amazon-hq2, dallas, economic-development, headquarters, hq2, request-for-proposal, rfp, seattle, swingers, tech, technology, toronto, uncategorized

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> _“Now the trick is that we gotta look like we don’t need this shit and they give us the shit for free.“ -_[_Mike Peters_](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swingers_\(1996_film\))  

This is a line from one of my favorite movies, [Swingers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swingers_\(1996_film\)). Short video clip [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wl7eVOTUpfs). Mikey and Trent are in a Las Vegas casino trying to play it cool. They’re looking to make a scene at a table and Mikey throws out this gem of a line. He knows that people want what they can’t have and that confidence matters.

I was reminded of this line today after Amazon announced its [HQ2 Request for Proposal](https://www.amazon.com/gp/browse.html/?node=17044620011) (full RFP document [here](https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/G/01/Anything/test/images/usa/RFP_3._V516043504_.pdf)) and every city, from Chicago and Toronto to Philadelphia and Dallas, started swooning over the prospect of housing Amazon’s second headquarters in North America. 

But to be clear, I do not think this is a bad idea. I actually think Amazon HQ2 is an incredible city building opportunity that would generate countless positive externalities for the selected city. I’m thrilled that Mayor John Tory will be personally “[leading the charge](https://twitter.com/JohnTory/status/905861338282557441)” with respect to Toronto’s response.

Over $5 billion in construction and as many as 50,000 employees making on average over $100,000 per year. Amazon is looking for about 500,000 sf of space in phase 1 (2019) and up to 8,000,000 sf in total. Based on the RFP, they seem to be pegging their capital investment at somewhere around $600 per square foot.

If I’m being as objective as possible, I honestly believe that Toronto is the city to beat in his competition. I think it will come down to access to talent. Human capital is the lifeblood of a company and Trump’s immigration policies simply put U.S. cities at a disadvantage in this regard.

Of course, Toronto is also awesome. So that’s my prediction: Amazon HQ2, Toronto.

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*Originally published on [Brandon Donnelly](https://paragraph.com/@brandondonnelly/my-prediction-for-amazon-hq2)*