# [MIND GAMES] By [circ0x](https://paragraph.com/@circ0x) · 2024-06-22 --- :an original thread you can find on my twitter by the tag @circ0x **Bull market will be in late 2025** Do you know why a lot of projects all of a suden are issuing tokens that much? Token unlocks. Whales waiting their cliffs to unlock their tokens approx. in late 2025 - **when the bull market starts** We were in the same range for a while, according both to TOTAL3 and $BTC globally almost nothing changed - so what's the deal with this ALTs dump? The thing is the **token unlocks**. Speaking about why issue tokens right now - for **VC**s to **have tokens already unlocked** on the **bullmarket**, some say the Q3 of 2025 ![total3 on tradin' view](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/0f0232ebff3c1d9a829485d7fb7b7fd8b7706699ac7605d78ae7f4be8db96b7c.png) total3 on tradin' view Generally, **token unlocks** is a mechanic that bears a **massive affect** on the price action. Let's go back to the Saint and Holy lifechanging $ARB airdrop back in Spring 2023... ![not eligible ahuh](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/218bef4f6c0161e8b20df4d1a240726eb5ec3d33a779663c729d27dc23e51b31.png) not eligible ahuh $1B where distributed amongst 600k elible users. Has everyone been happy? For shure - easy money. What they did? Right - **SELL**. Users sold, but pricewas and now is in the same range of $1-$2 - it's clear that it didn't go on "price discovery", no **_The_** Arbitrum **_team made the price remain still._** _\- let's just mention here that probably there were not only protocol users' wallets in the token distribution, but the teams', too - ahuh;_ _so it'd easier to maintain the price range. also, after everyone sold, there were no pressure on the order book, so that's not a big deal for huge company like_ @arbitrum _to hold the price._ ![thank you arbitrum and zk go \*\*\*\* yourself](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/d3c831e1a9463e2a01bcd65427128db60456ee8aee94a2906768c9db0b0a299f.png) thank you arbitrum and zk go \\\*\\\*\\\*\\\* yourself While **Arbitrum** Foundation **held** the **price** range, all these **years** there were **token unlocks** **Market Cap** became more and more **equal** to the **FDV** because of these **TON**s amounts of unlocks - we have **30% unlocked** already. ![münny](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/6b729a3473653f4773a7f6d091baf0f8761e2e1577b21db6835f44b2da1e77b8.png) münny Going straight to the point - there has been a gradual $ARB pump as you can see starting from Winter 2023. The price went up, from the 1$ to 2$ per $ARB Now we have actual 0.8$ per 1 $arb now, and it's not over yet... ![literally to zero](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/e50f88e0345d520ec095717d915c23464da87c02c98bbd67b79c7e35c179ab34.png) literally to zero WHAT HAPPENED and what are these roller coasters even mean? Watch the hands: - arbitrum held price around $1 from Spring to Winter - arbitrum pumped token on agiotage (local bull) to 2$ * The price went up -> MCap went up \- (there where not that much tokens in circulation that time so the token hadn't been "heavy" to move) \- now there's enough liquidity (+add here some fomo players who missed true dump... * Time to load out bags -> dump \- due to drastically voluminous unlocks, and on local bear - the price went down... ![welp somewhere we have been lured](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/f76f63a6277e6fb5707f738803c3e596de7915cf6089bca21746ee0d29068eb8.png) welp somewhere we have been lured **_Let's look at it from another perspective_** There are two circles on the curvature. They are both spotting us MCap points where it was valued approx. $2b; Now here comes the simple math: * imagine we have 1 mill $arb on hands with the prcie of 2$ * so, it's the $2m MCap here in total and we have $2m on hands * but, we actually possess not only 1 mil $arb, but 2 mil $arb - the only nuance is that this second million is locked * comes time, and this unlock is more near and near and... BOOM! We have 2 mil $arb on hands and the price is... 1$ (ONE DOLLA) ??? ![ah gotu](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/3980ec7d76d20480f181c74b410853c10634a614084a44193cdda3a9eef202e9.png) ah gotu See, globaly - nothing changed. We possessed $2m dollars before unlock. And we possess $2m now, after unlock. And actually we don't care what price we see, even if it made -50% - because we own the same amount of money as before While everyone were waiting for alt season, whales (investors) had been selling for $2 on highs, dumping price down to 1$; And it's 0.8$ actually now.... I'll tell you more guys - these fellas bought tokens not for 2$ or 1$ or 0.8$ per, but for 0.005$! They have SO SO SO much X's that they don't even care how much it costs now... And there're still some guys saying "DISCOUNTS DISCOUNTS BUY MORE" ![some guy from some vc](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/0b5d7833e484b0df698f11ff523f8e2eaedbf44e34e45aa15c0a04485c589611.png) some guy from some vc **TOKEN UNLOCKS**. And it isn't only about $ARB - the most ALTs have the same tokenomic mechanisms Remember the TradingView chart of $TOTAL3 from earlier? Now we see it's work as it's finest; TOTAL3 is a chart of total MCap for the most popular alts; Now it shows us how **Market Capitalization remained** nearly **the same** while most **ALT**s made **\-50%** of their **price**. Why? Because of **token unlocks**. If we are falling it's not a problem - there are more ALTs to be printed in the very near future. _Straight to the_ **_ZERO_**_._ ![wdgaf - said some guy from some vc](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/3f56e3ca4133914713dfec3e7f5f20810a96fe4db243a9595d6ce6ea3cacd299.png) wdgaf - said some guy from some vc Remember - **majority always lose** Peace✌️ * * * tools I used to provide the infographic information: `https://token.unlocks.app/` `https://www.tradingview.com/` `https://dropstab.com/` --- *Originally published on [circ0x](https://paragraph.com/@circ0x/mind-games)*