# Cognitive Bias

By [CuriosityGap](https://paragraph.com/@curiositygap) · 2022-05-31

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Cognitive biases are mental short-cuts and some of the most mind-boggling phenomena in psychology.
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Their nature is one of the reasons why each one of us is stuck in his/her own reality. _Knowing your biases could help you get unstuck and make better decisions._

### Let's dive in! 🤿

**Biases** can stem from the brain's preference for _lower energy expenditure_, missing information and evolutionary pressures. While they enable quick decisions, they also introduce a flurry of errors, clouding our judgement. 🧠

![Cognitive Bias Codex by designhacks.co](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/4d0ff7ee68599ada5990f25a3443372890f48e1e000413cc4d23ac670d80f3ab.png)

Cognitive Bias Codex by designhacks.co

### 1\. Dunning-Kruger effect

You may **underestimate** your expertise in a field you naturally excel at because you think anyone must be good at it, or **overestimate** your knowledge when in fact you know little about a subject.

> Antidote: Ask your peers about your superpower.

![Donald knows everything.](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/6d872cd7a9925fc4da9796418ec26fc258f94e68173950e41e8384868775e6fe.gif)

Donald knows everything.

### 2\. Confirmation bias

We tend to value information **confirming our own beliefs** more than information contradicting them. It takes conscious effort to take new evidence into consideration and to tolerate the uneasy feeling of _cognitive dissonance_.

![Confirmation Bias](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/093f8ff16ed290becce204a3733b7fa0d1dbec336515ea8f6d1de07f574b0541.gif)

Confirmation Bias

### 3\. Gambler's fallacy

Let's say a gambler plays coin flipping – he sees “heads” 9 times in a row and decides “tails” is **long overdue**. He goes all in.

> Unfortunately, the odds did not change based on past results. They are **statistically independent**.

Heads!

![Gene Hackman flipping a coin](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/ea001dc8295edf45303cee7c22f38885fce1add85600c7a399d2f8873d148189.gif)

Gene Hackman flipping a coin

### 4\. Barnum effect

What do psychics and salesmen have in common?

They employ statements **vague enough** to trick you into believing they are specifically tailored to you.

**Example:**

> _“At times you have serious doubts whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing.”_

![I see great things in your future…](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/92ad4df84480cf7fda0d5df38f55d69f064e0d364e5b5f0e87d2d801c7daae13.gif)

I see great things in your future…

### 5\. The sunk cost fallacy

You buy a used car.

A week later, it breaks down. You pay the repair shop to fix it. Days later, you need to get the brakes fixed. And a door. The repairs cost you more than the car.

You know you should **sell it at a loss**, but you keep throwing cash at it.

![Well, sh\*\*!](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/1b10fce2af09c0bb6d3416b8f9e63c4817285216374840fb34a69cfb77abab60.gif)

Well, sh\\\*\\\*!

### 6\. Halo effect

I make my friends mad each time I shrug off [@elonmusk](https://twitter.com/elonmusk)'s bad decisions and Ambien-fueled tweets because I admire his ingenuity and First Principles thinking in [@lexfridman](https://twitter.com/lexfridman)'s podcasts.

Maybe I'm just prone to the **halo effect**?

> Another good example is the neurosurgeon, whose perceived **amazing abilities** in the field of medicine seemingly **spill over** into other domains, like politics: Chances are he has no clue about political affairs, but you are more likely to take his takes serious because of the halo effect.

![Elon Musk on Joe Rogan's Podcast](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/af3865c82fca652350136a0ab5ce29da3a6d56a209c3e627223d0245604dfad3.gif)

Elon Musk on Joe Rogan's Podcast

### 7\. Planning fallacy

I totally **underestimated the time** it would take to create this thread, though it was a rewarding experience.

It turns out I'm in good company: Scientists found out _most humans are way too optimistic_ when it comes to setting realistic deadlines for tasks. This is especially true the more complex a task gets.

![It's getting late.](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/3a654954f3ff95ea9d757dce023eaa7c631f39787242ecb7839fc7e3eaa2c3b0.gif)

It's getting late.

Sources and further reading:

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive\_bias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_bias)

[https://thedecisionlab.com/biases](https://thedecisionlab.com/biases)

[https://answerthepublic.com/reports/4c0a8384-e3bd-4648-81aa-194e1d49dee6](https://answerthepublic.com/reports/4c0a8384-e3bd-4648-81aa-194e1d49dee6)

[https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.01561/full](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.01561/full)

[https://www.visualcapitalist.com/every-single-cognitive-bias/](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/every-single-cognitive-bias/)

[https://fs.blog/first-principles/](https://fs.blog/first-principles/)

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*Originally published on [CuriosityGap](https://paragraph.com/@curiositygap/cognitive-bias)*