# DADS DEFI NEW YEARS EVE UPDATE

> End of Year Market Thoughts: Markets, Macro, and What I’m Watching Into 2026

**Published by:** [Dadsdefispace.base.eth](https://paragraph.com/@daddefispace/)
**Published on:** 2026-01-01
**Categories:** bitcoin, technicalanalysis, ethereum, altcoins, base, zora, aerodrome, aero, ethbtc
**URL:** https://paragraph.com/@daddefispace/dads-defi-new-years-eve-update

## Content

A Message to the DADS DEFI SPACE CommunityTo everyone in the DADS DEFI SPACE community, I want to wish you blessings and a Happy New Year. As 2025 comes to a close, this feels like the right moment to step back—not just to look at markets, but to reflect on the path that brought us here.How Dadsdefispace Began — and What It’s Becom(ing)Dadsdefispace started as a small idea shared in real time: learning together, trading transparently, questioning narratives, and staying honest about uncertainty. Over time, that idea turned into something tangible. Today, it’s a legitimate LLC, a recognized brand, and a growing presence across Web3—especially on Base—where outreach, education, and experimentation are accelerating.2025 Was About Building, Not PerfectionThis year wasn’t about perfection. It was about building infrastructure—purpose, community, and presence. We used trading to help fund the early stages of our creator token, expanded into crypto education with a free DeFi and crypto class, launched a creator token on Zora, and laid groundwork that doesn’t always show up in P&L but matters deeply as we move into the next phase of the cycle.This Is a Market Check-In — Not a PredictionThis is my end-of-year market check-in. It’s not a prediction piece, and it’s not a victory lap. It’s a grounded look at where markets stand as we close out 2025—and how I’m thinking about positioning, risk, and opportunity heading into 2026. As always, this is about context and conviction.Bitcoin: Compression Before ResolutionBitcoin is ending the year the way it often does before major moves—compressed. Price is hovering just under $89,000, volatility is building, and this kind of structure rarely resolves quietly. Direction is intentionally unclear, with liquidity sitting on both sides—an environment designed to trap emotional traders.Key Bitcoin Levels I’m Watching$91K–$93K: Heavy resistance aligned with the Fibonacci golden pocket and upside liquidity$85K–$86K: Dense downside liquidity likely to be swept$102K–$104K: Macro resistance zone where bull traps have formed in past cyclesBitcoin remains coiled in a broad $80K–$94K range. Momentum is neutral, liquidity hunts are likely in both directions, and patience matters more than prediction. In this environment, BTC remains the market’s anchor and the safest relative exposure.Ethereum: Structural Weakness vs BitcoinEthereum continues to lag Bitcoin structurally. ETH must reclaim and hold the 50-week EMA around $3,000 to reestablish bullish momentum. Until then, rallies should be treated cautiously. ETH/BTC Context Lower highs continue to printCapital still favors Bitcoin dominanceETH underperformance is a signal, not noiseEthereum remains a core long-term asset—but timing and position sizing matter right now.Technical Analysis & Market CyclesMy framework relies heavily on long-term moving averages and cycle structure.Key Indicators50-Week MA: Losing it often signals the start of a bear phase200-Week MA (~$60K): Tests or reclaims historically mark cycle bottomsCycle OutlookCrypto continues to respect the four-year cycleExpectation: a shorter bear market this timePotential macro + crypto bottom: mid-2026This aligns with broader liquidity tightening followed by eventual easing.Portfolio Positioning & AltcoinsDe-Risked / UnderperformingRenderBeamPendleJupiterStacksThese positions failed to outperform Bitcoin or maintain conviction and were sold or trimmed.Current FocusBitcoin: Primary convictionEthereum: Secondary, actively managed exposureThe strategy moving forward is simple: fewer positions, higher conviction.Creator Tokens & DeFi ParticipationActive involvement continues in creator token ecosystems, particularly Zora—but the risks are real. Key RisksExtreme volatilityRug pulls still happenMany tokens down 70–90%ApproachDiversify across creatorsAlign with long-term value, not hypeTreat creator tokens like venture bets, not investments Positioning & Market SentimentMarket sentiment is split. Longs and shorts are relatively balanced, which often leads to fakeouts before real direction emerges. For transparency:Short ZORA and SOLLong ETH, catching the dip near $2,775My base case is that Bitcoin tests the lower end of the range before any sustained upside, while altcoins continue to bleed—punctuated by sharp recovery bounces that historically trap retail. For non-professional traders, this environment is brutal. It’s emotional, messy, and engineered to extract capital. We took a hit trying to long the bottom on ZORA and got wrecked. That’s part of the reality.Macro Backdrop: Growth on Paper, Stress in Reality2025 was a strange year economically. On paper, growth and cooling inflation looked fine. In reality, stress was everywhere: rising unemployment, collapsing savings rates, record credit card debt, and persistent negative sentiment. Despite positive headlines, more than half of Americans felt like the country was already in recession. Living in a working-class community, I see that disconnect every day.Looking Ahead to 2026Wall Street remains broadly bullish—but with far less conviction. I believe 2026 may be the year where the gap between markets and the real economy finally gets tested in a way that reshapes sentiment for the next cycle.Wrapping Up 2025 — and What Comes NextAs the year closes, several things stand out:Bitcoin is compressed; fakeouts are likely$91K remains heavy resistance$102K–$104K may act as a bull trapEconomic stress is real beneath the surfaceOn the business side, 2025 was about turning momentum into structure—formalizing the LLC, expanding Web3 outreach on Base, keeping education free, and experimenting with creator economics. There’s still a lot to build. I see 2026 as a year of execution—where groundwork meets opportunity, and where flexibility, risk management, and conviction matter more than being right. That’s the game. Take it or leave it. I hope you’ll join us for the ride. — Kevin

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