# A cow or a bear

**Published by:** [wmdsj](https://paragraph.com/@dao100/)
**Published on:** 2021-12-30
**URL:** https://paragraph.com/@dao100/a-cow-or-a-bear

## Content

For 2022, there are many prospects, forecasts and guesses. Wu Shuo's team and Wu Shuo's friends also have some ideas and guesses to share here for discussion. As a reserved program, at the end of 2022, let's see who guesses right and who guesses wrong. 1、 How the market trend next year, the impact of the Federal Reserve. Brother Ping: in terms of the current dynamics of the Federal Reserve, it has announced to accelerate taper, and it is expected to raise interest rates three times next year, and it will not raise interest rates during taper. Since the market basically price in ahead of this expectation, the current market will be strong after the expectation is implemented. However, if the interest rate increase policy is implemented, I think it will still have a downward impact on risk assets such as cryptocurrency. However, in view of the current volume and ecological development of the encryption industry, this downward trend should not be a unilateral downward trend of deep bear, and the wealth effect shows more local plate distribution. NN: the cryptocurrency market is likely to enter a bear market next year. Of course, the dynamics of the Federal Reserve have an impact on it. At present, the Federal Reserve has accelerated tapper, which is expected to end next spring, followed by an interest rate increase. With the contraction of liquidity in the market, cryptocurrency assets are likely to fall. Of course, monetary policy has time lag. It is expected that the phenomenon of liquidity shortage in the market will appear 5-10 months after the formal interest rate increase. Dong Bing: as digital assets gradually enter the mainstream vision, the price trend of bitcoin and others will certainly be more and more affected by the external environment. The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve in 2022 will indeed be a null factor, but the impact is expected to be relatively limited. There are three reasons: 1) the current market price should have included the expectation that the Fed will tighten liquidity and raise interest rates three times in the next year; 2) the US will face a mid term election next year, and the Fed will moderate liquidity, but it will be careful about the consequences of the bubble. 3) Historically, the impact of liquidity tightening policy on crypto has lagged behind. In the last round of us contraction cycle, the interest rate hike started in December 2016, and the table contraction began in October 2017, while the bitcoin price did not peak until December 2017, about a year after the start of tightening. At present, the Federal Reserve has just started taper, and has not even started raising interest rates. The tightening progress is about the level of mid-2016. Wu Zhuocheng: the market depends on two aspects: whether the time for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and the story of the currency circle are sufficient. At present, the market expects that the debt reduction will continue until the first quarter of next year, and the interest rate increase will begin as early as the second quarter, but it is highly likely to wait until June. Moreover, the story of the coin circle next year mainly focuses on the first half of the year, including Boca auction, Ethereum upgrade The online games (fun games) are mostly concentrated in the first quarter, except that the upgrade time of Ethereum is uncertain (as early as June). To sum up, both the macro environment and the story of the currency circle support the continuation of the market in the first quarter of next year. The personal deduction of the market is: the rush buying climax in the first quarter, the panic stampede in the second quarter, and the rebound in the third quarter by taking advantage of the upgrade of Ethereum (but it will not reach a new high), and then start a long road of gloomy decline. Liu quankai: I am still optimistic about the market trend in 2022. The basic judgment is divided into two parts. First, bitcoin and the pass with strong correlation with bitcoin will continue to maintain the upward trend of shock. I think bitcoin has the opportunity to challenge another new high. During this period, it will be hit by various government policy news for many times, but these negative effects will not last too long or change the trend. Second, the plate rotation is obvious and the hot money effect is enhanced, which will be particularly important for the capture ability of potential hot plates. In 2022, the Fed's interest rate hike and inflation are still the theme. The Fed's every move is easy to be amplified by market sentiment. Before and after important government decisions or data release, the fluctuation of bitcoin should increase significantly. If the market expects to raise interest rates in the first half of next year, generally speaking, there is no need to be too alarmed. First, the current institutional underpinning effect of bitcoin is obvious. Generally speaking, around 30000 will be a strong support; Second, from the data after the Fed's interest rate hike over the years, the effect of interest rate hike shows that there is a time difference. Generally, in the first year after the interest rate hike, the overall U.S. economy and stock market can still remain strong, inflation continues to rise, the linkage effect of bitcoin and U.S. stocks is strong, bitcoin should still maintain a volatile upward trend, and the growth rate of national economy and U.S. stocks will tend to slow down in the second year, Bond yields fell, and the effect of interest rate increase gradually appeared. Ws: in 2022 with high macro uncertainty, the coin circle will be a zero sum game, even similar to the market in 2018. However, the innovations and new concepts in the currency circle will still bring a structural bull market to the currency circle. After the first quarter, the dynamics of the Federal Reserve will certainly have a great impact on the currency circle. In the first two months of 2022, the Federal Reserve may not have a significant impact on the encryption market. Now the Fed is still expanding its watch, but the speed of expanding its watch has slowed down. The best market rate in the currency circle in 2022 will probably be in the first quarter. 2、 What is your favorite track next year? nn： The first is the NFT lending / derivatives market. At present, the NFT spot market has gradually matured and attracted the attention of the mainstream society. From the historical experience of market development, NFT will develop to the lending / derivatives market in the next step. However, the particularity of NFT lies in its difficult pricing and lack of market liquidity. Therefore, in order to develop the NFT lending / derivatives market, we must first solve the NFT pricing problem, that is, develop the NFT oracle. In 2022, NFT Oracle / pricing scheme will be a star in the market. The second is the credit market. The biggest feature of this bull market is the influx of a large number of institutional investors. The credit business in the cryptocurrency market is currently in an early desolate state, mainly because most of the C-end users are anonymous and prone to default risk; However, agency oriented credit business can be free from the above problems. With the increasing number of institutional users in the industry, the institution oriented credit business will become the next important market, and the market scale is expected to be comparable to the OTC market in the future. Winter Soldier: Or watch Ethereum, Ethereum will officially enter "tranquility" next year (serenity) stage. The industry has been looking forward to this for many years. After entering the quiet world, Ethereum's performance potential will be further released. It is expected that next year will be the year of Ethereum. POW will be transferred to POS in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, with the improvement of various functions based on POS chain, Ethereum will usher in the double benefits of performance jump and ecological explosion. L2 projects and various applications based on Ethereum will also be improved This benefit. Brother Ping:Socialfi: now we can clearly feel VC's bet on socialfi track. Socialfi projects such as MEM protocol, cyberconnect, RSS3 and ENSO finance have won well-known VC investment this year. Of course, the mature outbreak of socialfi track is certainly not next year, but the token of such projects may become a hot target in the market.Gamefi & metauniverse: the gamefi & metauniverse projects released this year are basically officially launched next year. At that time, it will be known whether the mule or horse game will be launched, or do you expect this track to move forward. Wu Zhuocheng: public chain (including L2) and games. Next year's story mainly focuses on public chain upgrading and game launch. Public chain is the infrastructure of blockchain, and game is the track most likely to get out of independent market. Liu quankai: NFT. As the underlying asset logic of the Web 3.0 meta universe, NFT is indispensable. At present, the concept of meta universe is rising. There is an upsurge of meta universe both inside and outside the circle. Big manufacturers have announced to enter the meta universe, and NFT has become the best carrier for traditional manufacturers to enter the field of encryption. Unlike ft, which is subject to government laws and regulations everywhere, NFT has not been interfered by so many regulatory factors. The concept of token has been diluted. Traditional manufacturers can not only buy NFT openly in the NFT market, but also issue NFT to players in the encryption circle. I believe that more unexpected things will be realized through NFT next year. In addition, limited by the current infrastructure of hardware and software and the logic system of meta universe theoretical framework, meta universe will be a long-term narrative and big project, which will also determine that NFT can exist and last for a long time. In the traditional field, the Web 2.0 Internet as a whole has been faced with the problem of peak traffic dividend and retention of stock users, which inevitably falls into the internal friction and requires the rekindling of the new narrative and new track of the meta universe. The Web 3.0 meta universe based on NFT obviously has more advantages than Web 2.0. Compared with the large-scale online game web 2.0 meta universe that "can't take away" anything, Web 3.0 meta universe is more decentralized and open from the underlying architecture and data. Users are developers, developers are users, and only someone is willing to develop, Anyone can freely enjoy the inner imaginary world and explore in different meta cosmic worlds without any external interference. In addition, NFT gives the concept of things and rights in the meta universe. It has a unique tokenomics economic system in line with reality, and all aspects of future life can be realized in the meta universe. Overall, NFT has a lot to look forward to. ws：Web3. 0 infrastructure: regulatory pressure will give more attention to front-end decentralization projects that can replace AWS.Public chain without user payment: if the reason behind the success of sol is ultra-low gas fee and good user experience, the new public chain supporting user 0 gas fee will have greater potential. Such as ICP and kDaCosmos Ecology: Cosmos shows a very gratifying executive power in 2021, and atom's token model may be improved in 2022 + cosmos has many projects that try to solve real-world scenarios, which deserve attentionInvestment Dao: Investment Dao will become popular and outperform traditional VC. We have seen many successful cases of community support (abracadabra. Money) in 2021. Investment Dao can not only support investment projects, but also share investment opportunities with the general public. 3、 What else do you think will happen next year? Brother Ping:The market value of eth exceeds that of BTC; 2. The first Ethereum futures ETF in the United States passed; 3. There will be a new public chain with the help of Web3 The east wind of 0 stands out. Winter Soldier:SEC approves eth futures ETF and BTC spot ETF. 2. The market value of eth is close to or even briefly exceeds the market value of BTC. 3. The United States launched a regulatory framework for stabilizing currency. 4. Bitcoin reached a new milestone of $100000. 5. Ethereum will successfully complete POS before September. Uncle Tan: the experiment in El Salvador will fail, that is, bitcoin will not be used for daily payments in El Salvador; It is possible for other countries to effectively follow suit, but it is unlikely for countries with GDP ranking in the top 100 in the world to follow suit. Wu Zhuocheng:Medium sized countries (at the level of Brazil) began to accept bitcoin as legal tender or anchor their currency issuance to bitcoin reservesEthereum's market share in the public chain track has dropped below 50%OP rollup and ZK rollup cities account for 73% of the total (to be opened in March 2023)Sports 3A games enter the chain tour track (in view of the continuous ambiguity between NBA and coin circle, live or 2k and may be the first to open the gamefi version)EVM compatible L1 will plummet by more than 90% (if there is neither capacity expansion for Ethereum nor ecology independent of Ethereum, I don't know the necessity of these L1 after Ethereum is upgraded)Defi's LP has only handling fee income and no token rewardThe pledge amount of Ethereum 2.0 reaches between 30 million and 100 million, realizing temporary deflation (deflation may be stopped if the pledge exceeds 100 million)Ethereum can transfer to POS smoothly, but there is no exact time. As long as it is completed next year, it will not be delayed. As vitalik said, transition is not a technical problem, but "related to people". The "people" who restrict them may be miners or internal stakeholders. With the further reduction of Ethereum's market share in the public chain track, there is little time left for stakeholders to fight. Liu quankai:There is a major breakthrough innovation similar to AMM mechanism in defi to open up an innovative trendA large number of DAPP protocols will be transferred to layer 2 networks, and L2 TVL will exceed US $20 billionCategories that suffer from copyright disputes in Web 2.0, such as photography and music, will develop rapidly in NFTCorporate governance projects will be challenged by more community-based operation projectsMeme culture will continue to prevail, and more meme passes will appear and challenge Doge and ShibNext year, there will be a real 3A masterpiece in the game industry. For example, the launch of star atlas on Solana next year is worth looking forward to. Different from traditional games, chain games need to be viewed from both technical and economic aspects. Technically, I think some game development teams in the blockchain and encryption industry actually have the technology and ability to produce a 3A game. In addition, many traditional game giants such as Ubisoft also announced to enter the NFT game market, which is also a positive signal. But if you want to make a 3A masterpiece, first of all, the team should stand loneliness and keep the original heart. Polishing a game has a long time cycle and a lot of resources. In this market, the speculative attribute is very strong and the cycle switching style is obvious. The team will face the choice of making fast money or making a dream. At present, the situation of the chain game market is that most teams choose the former and let bad money flood the market. However, I believe that the game team really deep in the blockchain industry will polish and launch more excellent works with more heart. Economically, the current chain game is mainly based on mining and tokenomics in defi. The game will inevitably face sustained inflation in the middle and later stages, which hinders the further development of the game. At present, there has been no breakthrough innovation in defi for quite a long time, which is unfavorable for gamefi. Therefore, I think if the chain game wants to operate more sustainably, it needs to be inspired by the innovation of defi. This year, the new defi 2.0 minimally invasive technology led by olympusdao shines in front of people. We look forward to more breakthrough innovations next year. If you look deeper, chain travel is very important

## Publication Information

- [wmdsj](https://paragraph.com/@dao100/): Publication homepage
- [All Posts](https://paragraph.com/@dao100/): More posts from this publication
- [RSS Feed](https://api.paragraph.com/blogs/rss/@dao100): Subscribe to updates
- [Twitter](https://twitter.com/wmdsj0124): Follow on Twitter