# Bull and bear markets

**Published by:** [wmdsj](https://paragraph.com/@dao100/)
**Published on:** 2022-02-09
**URL:** https://paragraph.com/@dao100/bull-and-bear-markets

## Content

Regardless of blockchain technology as an auxiliary industrial blockchain, observing the financial blockchain closely related to cryptocurrency alone, it seems that it will not be smooth in the future and will surely take over the traditional finance smoothly. Behind the surface prosperity of the existing rapid expansion, blues suspects that it will soon encounter a short-term bottleneck, that is, the overall expandable scale can not catch up with the market space required for the survival and development of the explosion of a kaleidoscope of financial blockchain projects, and the new "excess capacity". One of the biggest risks is one of the biggest difficulties facing the global governance pattern, that is, the middle class is disappearing. If the rich, middle class and civilians are regarded as three social strata, there is no doubt that the obvious trend of capitalist society in the United States and Europe is that the spindle social structure in the golden age (the middle class is the most, the rich and civilians are a few, and the figure is similar to the spindle) no longer exists. Taking the United States as an example, it is now a typical pyramid social structure, The top rich are always in the minority, the middle class is rapidly decreasing, and the poor are increasing (more than half of the population). Under such a social structure, the total wealth of the society is still increasing, but most of them are seized by the rich at the top of the pyramid. Although they have a lot of wealth, their consumption power is limited because there are too few people - how many pieces of bread can a single person survive? Those who understand the law of marginal decline in economics will understand it very well. The income of the middle class has decreased greatly, and the middle class has fallen into the poor, who have no spending power. In fact, the so-called "universal consumption power" of society mainly lies in the middle class. Only they, because of their traditional population size, have the greatest consumption power for all products, whether real economic products or financial products. Therefore, the proportion of the middle class is almost a sign of the benign degree of the deterministic social structure. It is a bit like the three-tier structure of landlord power, self-employed farmers and tenant farmers in the ancient feudal era. When the self-employed farmers of a country are almost merged, and there is only the two-tier structure of landlord power and tenant farmers, chaos and recession naturally follow, and social disease. Careful observation of the United States under the epidemic can find the coexistence of two United States. One is the United States of enterprises. Is it in recession? No, it can be said that it has become stronger. In the 1990s, the United States was almost in the leading position in semiconductor, operating system, information technology, aerospace, biomedicine and financial system. After the epidemic situation in the United States is solved, many enterprises will be able to optimize their R & D and service distribution and even strengthen their management without interest. But the problem is that enterprises are not everything. Another America, the United States of the people, has become more and more angry. In such a powerful America, absurd statements such as "civil war" have become the most popular in the United States in the past few months. Why? Because most people cannot share the fruits of the economy, the United States, which is already a financial country, can enjoy more benefits the closer it is to capital (currency). There is no doubt that only the rich can be closest to money. For the superstructure and the rich, capital money is a tool for them to stimulate prosperity and realize wealth appreciation, but for the middle class and the poor, the meaning of money is completely different, that is, the actual purchasing power. Long term liquidity is loose, and the final result must be that stocks rise, while the purchasing power of wages is declining. In essence, it is through monetary exploitation. The original ideal of bitcoin is to fight against this intentionally guided currency (purchasing power) devaluation. Of course, it has finally become a new capital. The recent shortage of labor resources in the United States is extreme. Many people are unwilling to go to work rather than lie flat. The obvious inability of monetary income to achieve class rise is naturally the biggest reason. The antitrust and rich man tax that Biden administration is trying to implement is naturally an attempt to improve the superstructure of American society. However, so far, there are many difficulties and there seems to be no sign of improvement. For the bull market of US stocks in the past two years under the epidemic, there is a famous motto "a great year for Wall Street, but a bear market for people". In the United States, superstructures (such as Biden) regard inflation as a "great asset", but for the people, "it's a moral issue" and inflation is immoral. Under various observations, the further reduction of the middle class is an obvious general trend that is difficult to reverse. Regardless of the political problems, the economy alone will sooner or later bite back on the development of enterprises and projects. The total consumption power of the rich is actually very small, and the margin decreases. Then, due to the continuous reduction of the size and quantity of the middle class, the lack of consumption power is an obvious trend. So many projects, where is the future consumption? Looking at the new financial blockchain projects emerging every day, blues can't help but think that, like the early days of the Internet, 99% of the projects will eventually fail. In the face of the decreasing middle class, the Red Sea competition faced by the financial blockchain will be more fierce. Most projects simply can't find enough effective customer groups with sustainability, scale and stability, In this context, it's ridiculous to see a project talk about its technical advantages. Can technology ensure the survival of your project? Especially in finance, it is never technology that determines the competitive advantage, but the distribution of power. From this perspective, the current financial blockchain projects (such as defi) have high long-term risks. The vast majority of deaths, and a small number of auxiliary departments and auxiliary platforms that are merged and become giants are certain. Only a few can become "new giants" in the future financial circle. However, who knows who can win? Under high uncertainty, only God knows the future. In this sense, it can be understood that under the long-term target selection of coin circle investment, the advantage of investing in bitcoin seems to be just the choice of different currencies. In essence, it is to invest in an asset with high certainty rather than a "venture capital" project. There is an essential difference between assets and projects. Assets are priced in legal currency, so they rise for a long time with the expansion and depreciation of legal currency. As for projects, most of the time it is a kind of gambling. Just like Xiuzhen in fantasy novels, bitcoin has become an immortal, and many projects still need to "cross the robbery" in front of the increasingly severe "way of heaven". How difficult is it for fish to cross the dragon gate to turn into a dragon?

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