A Decade of Ethereum: At a Crossroads T

his year marks Ethereum's 10th anniversary. Over the past decade, it has fueled DeFi's prosperity and sparked the NFT craze. Countless developers and idealists have converged on this chain to build and create narratives. However, in its 10th year, Ethereum stands at a critical juncture. New public chains are emerging, the narrative dominance is shifting, and its price has lost momentum in a prolonged adjustment.

Stakes Concentration and the "Changing of the Guard"

Rumors of Ethereum experiencing a "changing of the guard" began circulating last year. Some believe that early ETH holders, the industry OGs, are gradually exiting, with Wall Street and other institutions quietly taking over. But is this true?

Chain analyst @Murphychen888's analysis shows that since 2016, ETH's Herfindahl Index (a measure of concentration) has been declining, indicating a shift of stakes to retail investors. The index bottomed out in March 2023 and then rose suddenly in December 2024, signaling a re - concentration of holdings. Whether through active buying or passive accumulation, whales are driving up concentration.

But it's a slow process, as some large holders continue to sell, dampening the trend. Although this increasing concentration could bode well for future price trends, it may be a long and painful wait for market participants.

Additionally, since late March, ETH's "faithful buyer" RSI has remained at 80, while loss - making sellers peaked in mid - April and then quickly subsided. This indicates that despite significant price corrections, steadfast buyers have been consistently buying the dip since March 26.

Ethereum's "Heart Transplant" Proposal: Major Upgrades on the Horizon

On April 20th, Vitalik proposed a significant upgrade to replace the current Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) with the open - source RISC - V instruction - set architecture as the long - term evolution direction for Ethereum's Layer 1 execution layer.

By design, existing EVM contracts will continue to run and remain bidirectionally compatible with the new architecture. Core abstractions like account models, cross - contract calls, and storage will be fully retained. Existing opcodes such as SLOAD, SSTORE, BALANCE, and CALL will be mapped to RISC - V system calls. The new architecture supports writing contracts in languages like Rust while remaining compatible with existing languages like Solidity and Vyper, ensuring a seamless developer experience.

If realized, this shift will fundamentally alter how Ethereum smart contracts operate and lay the technical groundwork for its expandability over the next decades. Crypto KOL Dayu noted that if the proposal succeeds, Ethereum's mainnet speed could increase 100 - fold, with transaction fees dropping by a thousand - fold or more. This could challenge high - speed public chains like Solana and Sui, combining decentralization, ecological积累, and enhanced speed.

Although the proposal currently faces risks such as community opposition, its emergence sends a strong signal that Ethereum is refocusing on its mainnet value. As community user @shmula commented, Vitalik's proposals have historically "abandoned" Ethereum Layer 1, but this one could inject new value.

The "Default Choice" of Traditional Finance?

Traditional institutions seem to have a preference for Ethereum. New York Mellon Bank, one of the world's largest custodian banks, recently launched the on - chain data tool Digital Asset Data Insights on Ethereum. BlackRock's tokenized fund BUIDL has also deployed over $2.3 billion on Ethereum.

Does this indicate that traditional institutions are actively engaging with the Ethereum ecosystem and experimenting with its security, transparency, and composability? Crypto KOL Lanhu also proposed a forward - looking idea: could large financial institutions in the future build dedicated Layer 2 networks or private chains on top of Ethereum's security layer?

LXDAO founder brucexu.eth's insights offer some perspective. He noted that Hong Kong financial institutions and asset - tokenization projects he has recently encountered普遍 choose Ethereum as the underlying platform. At this stage, it is almost the only optimal solution. He pointed out that Bitcoin lacks flexible expandability, while other public chains may be subject to national intervention or face downtime risks, which financial institutions cannot accept. Emerging blockchains have yet to withstand the test of time and security, and their maturity remains to be verified.

These early moves may just be the prelude. However, in the short term, the of the application layer is crucial for Ethereum to realize its value.

A Decade of Ethereum: A Critical Juncture

Since the Ethereum Foundation changed its core team in February this year and recently proposed support for the RISC - V virtual machine, Ethereum has shown a posture of "active correction." Tomasz K. Stańczak, executive director of the Ethereum Foundation, recently admitted that Ethereum's "secondary goal" is to become the preferred infrastructure for institutions, aiming to win markets like RWA and stablecoins.

These developments are not cause for pessimism and may even signal a technical turning point. According to Trend Research, ETH is currently at a critical support - resistance level, and a breakout could迎来 a favorable trend reversal. Since December 2024, ETH has experienced five months of prolonged decline, with the number of profitable addresses dropping to levels even lower than in bear markets. As the crypto market recovers, ETH has entered a key support - resistance zone.

Trend Research also指出 that multiple technical indicators are showing potential bottom - building signals. ETH's candlestick patterns, moving averages, MACD & Momentum, RSI, and MFI all suggest a possible short - term shift in market sentiment. The current price is approaching the upper edge of the downtrend channel and a horizontal resistance level, attempting to break through.

Ethereum seems to be entering a "critical window period," but as the Chinese saying goes, "Consider defeat before considering victory." Even if there are initial signs of hope, it's inevitable to ask: What if it ultimately fails? If these efforts still cannot break through performance bottlenecks, if the ecosystem development stalls, or if price confidence cannot be regained, will Ethereum become the "war machine of doom" in the new era?

A decade is not only a milestone in time but also a test of faith. The wheel of time rolls on. Success will earn the admiration of countless chains; failure will mark the end of a hero's glory.