# dogecoin scalp

By [Excelsior Capital](https://paragraph.com/@excelsior-capital) · 2021-10-08

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October 4, 2021
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### play-by-play summary

*   saw a tweet from Qiao Wang or some fund manager showing the first leg of the SHIB pump
    
*   i figured that this was just a whale market manipulation play, especially after seeing another tweet showing how much SHIB was moving on-chain
    
*   on more thought, i reasoned that because pretty much every major L1 had been moving up recently, the market sentiment might be getting meme-level bullish
    
    *   NFTs, of course, were still exploding into insane multiples of their initial prices
        
*   i was skeptical of how far this pump would go, especially because i hadn’t seen much retail activity recently
    
*   but because of the general market sentiment, i figured this would become like a hot potato Keynesian beauty contest, where people buy dog coins to try dumping on (1) reflexive pumps from traders with the same idea and (2) retail investors FOMO buying
    
*   partly due to my liquidity deployment situation, i decided to position for this possibility by entering DOGE with a 1% portfolio allocation
    
*   entered at 2PM EST with a market buy (i was impatient, possibly because DOGE had already showed signs of strength) at 0.229
    
*   sold at 0.24 at 11:47PM EST
    
    *   i’d been periodically looking at DOGE versus SHIB (and also L1 majors) and noted that DOGE was a laggard relative to the overall market strength
        
    *   this made me skeptical that it would rip up any further
        
    *   in the back of my mind, the information i had for DOGE was some vague blog post about how DOGE is largely concentrated on just a few wallets, and thus i was wary of the price’s ability to meaningfully rip due to this idea i had of there being a natural seller
        

![entry and sell arrows making me look like i bought local bottom sold local top](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/183fb4b285703b4821360fda909fd2273d8b0a80c9edbcec3d225d21750a6e85.png)

entry and sell arrows making me look like i bought local bottom sold local top

### process journal

*   i’m looking for a solution to create, at scale, accurate mental notes concerning (1) every potential coin’s holder distributions, (2) tokenomics of buying/selling pressure such as staking or lockups or inflows, and (3) the behavior of different wallet sizes during different market regimes
    
    *   in my mind, this is similar to having a poker player’s hand history before fighting them for pots
        
*   i did a good job of sizing properly with a small percentage of my portfolio given my level of conviction and amount of due diligence
    
*   i did a good job of actionably reasoning with my theoretical knowledge base, and of looking for disconfirming evidence for my trade rather than trying to justify a losing position
    
*   i did a good job of contextualizing events and market moves in what recently has been happening in the metagame of crypto trading

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*Originally published on [Excelsior Capital](https://paragraph.com/@excelsior-capital/dogecoin-scalp)*