# Log Reflection

By [Excelsior Capital](https://paragraph.com/@excelsior-capital) · 2022-01-28

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I’ve kept several journals to help debug my mind. The goal is to fix leaks in my game.

### iPhone Diary Review

*   writing allowed me to create concepts too large to fit all-at-once in my mental
    
*   lack of patience sitting in my positions
    
*   inexperience with high volatility
    
*   inconsistencies between long-term view and short-term positioning
    
*   failure to identify and articulate my edge
    
*   trading based on the 15m chart
    

I wrote most of my iPhone Diary while experimenting with scalping and swing trading: a search for low timeframe, low conviction, poker-like, repeatable setups. It allowed me some insight into how CT chart-readers view prices.

This sort of approach to the markets doesn’t suit my personality; I disliked being glued to the price chart, forced to babysit for entries or exits. My positions would get blown up if fundamental news came in which I failed to monitor. I prefer thesis-driven, long timeframe investing; it frees up my time and allows me to exercise my hobbies of (1) pondering the manner of things and (2) forecasting individuals. This becomes a virtuous cycle.

The crypto markets are maturing rapidly. For now, I cannot hope to compete with quantitative traders in whale games. My sole edge lies in:

1.  fringe, unknown opportunities
    
2.  low-liquidity environments
    
3.  having a long-term outlook
    

Finding a fringe asset is always a boon — the possible change is skewed towards more attention rather than less. Greater attention tends to mean higher valuation. If something is low-liquidity, sophisticated actors can’t enter, so competition is softer. With a long-term outlook, which requires an ability to stomach common emotional pitfalls, the competitive pool shrinks once more.

My main heuristic is: “Would I join this opportunity? Would I lead this project?”

To take a page from Howard Marks, I’ve given up on directly timing the market. My only goal is to allocate into quality projects and teams when I feel like the price is cheap. To align with my personality and attain focus, I’m long-term long-only, with a strong bias towards opportunities which have the potential to return multiples — in short, I’m positioning myself to be an angel investor.

### Physical Notebook Review

*   betting is committing money, getting more back when you correctly predict an uncertain outcome, and less back when you are incorrect
    
*   trading is betting on how prices will change
    
*   investing is
    
    *   betting that an entity will somehow improve, and that its market valuation will therefore increase
        
    *   aligning our payoff function with that of someone or something
        
    *   surfing a wave
        
    *   planting trees for their fruit
        
    *   sacrificing now in the hope of receiving more later
        
    *   like a poker game where entities compete to accumulate relatively more wealth
        
    *   understanding that the underlying is different from the price
        
*   human life is moral-mental-physical
    

### Overall Takeaways

*   we have a limited decision bankroll
    
*   make sure we’re always vibing with our positions
    
*   what would you do if you absolutely believed in yourself?
    
*   it’s okay for a man to be wrong; it’s not okay for a man to stay wrong
    
*   play some NLHE/OTC every night to train risk-taking under uncertainty
    

It takes years to get feedback when angel investing; how can I battle-test my ideas, iterate my mental toolkit, train myself?

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*Originally published on [Excelsior Capital](https://paragraph.com/@excelsior-capital/log-reflection)*