# Log Reflection

**Published by:** [Excelsior Capital](https://paragraph.com/@excelsior-capital/)
**Published on:** 2022-01-28
**URL:** https://paragraph.com/@excelsior-capital/log-reflection

## Content

I’ve kept several journals to help debug my mind. The goal is to fix leaks in my game.iPhone Diary Reviewwriting allowed me to create concepts too large to fit all-at-once in my mentallack of patience sitting in my positionsinexperience with high volatilityinconsistencies between long-term view and short-term positioningfailure to identify and articulate my edgetrading based on the 15m chartI wrote most of my iPhone Diary while experimenting with scalping and swing trading: a search for low timeframe, low conviction, poker-like, repeatable setups. It allowed me some insight into how CT chart-readers view prices. This sort of approach to the markets doesn’t suit my personality; I disliked being glued to the price chart, forced to babysit for entries or exits. My positions would get blown up if fundamental news came in which I failed to monitor. I prefer thesis-driven, long timeframe investing; it frees up my time and allows me to exercise my hobbies of (1) pondering the manner of things and (2) forecasting individuals. This becomes a virtuous cycle. The crypto markets are maturing rapidly. For now, I cannot hope to compete with quantitative traders in whale games. My sole edge lies in:fringe, unknown opportunitieslow-liquidity environmentshaving a long-term outlookFinding a fringe asset is always a boon — the possible change is skewed towards more attention rather than less. Greater attention tends to mean higher valuation. If something is low-liquidity, sophisticated actors can’t enter, so competition is softer. With a long-term outlook, which requires an ability to stomach common emotional pitfalls, the competitive pool shrinks once more. My main heuristic is: “Would I join this opportunity? Would I lead this project?” To take a page from Howard Marks, I’ve given up on directly timing the market. My only goal is to allocate into quality projects and teams when I feel like the price is cheap. To align with my personality and attain focus, I’m long-term long-only, with a strong bias towards opportunities which have the potential to return multiples — in short, I’m positioning myself to be an angel investor.Physical Notebook Reviewbetting is committing money, getting more back when you correctly predict an uncertain outcome, and less back when you are incorrecttrading is betting on how prices will changeinvesting isbetting that an entity will somehow improve, and that its market valuation will therefore increasealigning our payoff function with that of someone or somethingsurfing a waveplanting trees for their fruitsacrificing now in the hope of receiving more laterlike a poker game where entities compete to accumulate relatively more wealthunderstanding that the underlying is different from the pricehuman life is moral-mental-physicalOverall Takeawayswe have a limited decision bankrollmake sure we’re always vibing with our positionswhat would you do if you absolutely believed in yourself?it’s okay for a man to be wrong; it’s not okay for a man to stay wrongplay some NLHE/OTC every night to train risk-taking under uncertaintyIt takes years to get feedback when angel investing; how can I battle-test my ideas, iterate my mental toolkit, train myself?

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