As of the close on September 30, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.55% to 3024.39 points. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.29% to 10778.61 points; the ChiNext Index fell 1.89% to 2288.97 points.
So far, in the first three quarters of 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 16.91%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 27.45%, and the ChiNext Index fell 31.11%. Among them, in the third quarter, the three major A-share stock indexes corrected significantly, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 11.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 16.42%, and the ChiNext Index fell 18.56%.
From the perspective of the disk, in the first three quarters of 2022, the market will fall more and rise less. Among the first-tier industries in Shenwan, only the coal sector closed up. In terms of individual stocks, 811 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen rose, accounting for 16.41% of the 4943 stocks.
Coal led the rise in Shenwan’s first-class industry, up 32.67% in the first three quarters
In terms of sectors, Wind data shows that of the 31 sectors under Shenwan’s first-level industry classification, except for the coal sector, which rose 32.67%, the rest of the sectors closed down in the first three quarters of 2022. Media and computers led the decline.
Judging from the 125 sectors under Shenwan's secondary industry classification, a total of 6 secondary industries have achieved growth in the first three quarters of 2022.
In terms of growth rate, coal mining is far ahead in the Shenwan secondary industry, with an increase of 47.90% in the first three quarters of 2022; home appliance parts also increased by more than 10%, 10.02%; non-metallic materials, precious metals, housing construction, aviation The airport followed closely with an increase of 7.44%, 5.55%, 2.56% and 1.32% respectively. In addition, the forestry sector closed flat in the first three quarters of 2022.
Sectors with strong trends in the first three quarters
The three top decliners are in line with the end of the first half of 2022. Digital media led the decline in the Shenwan secondary industry, closing down 49.21% in the first three quarters of 2022; consumer electronics and games followed closely, closing down 40.05% and 39.52% respectively.
Zhonglu shares led the rise in stocks, with an increase of 265.93% in the first half of the year
In terms of individual stocks, Wind data shows that in the first three quarters of 2022, 811 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks rose, 3,859 stocks fell, and 273 stocks were flat.
Among them, Zhonglu Shares (600818) led the rise in A shares, with an increase of 265.93% in the first three quarters of 2022. In addition, in the first three quarters of 2022, ST Shida (600734), Chuanyi Technology (002866), Infront Micro (000670), Yuancheng Gold (600766), and COSCO Shipping Energy (600026) were among the stocks that increased by more than two times. They were 248.78%, 216.41%, 211.56%, 205.95%, and 205.58%, respectively.
Top gainers in the first three quarters
Zhonglu shares rose more than 2.5 times in the first three quarters of 2022, especially in the third quarter. The stock belongs to the automobile sector, mainly engaged in bicycle and other manufacturing business and foreign equity investment business, and owns a well-known "permanent" bicycle brand in China.
Analysts said that my country is currently the world's largest bicycle producer and exporter, with domestic bicycle exports accounting for about 40% of the world's total. With the reduction of bicycle raw materials and the decline of export shipping costs, the operating pressure of enterprises has been greatly reduced, and the profitability of the bicycle industry is expected to continue to improve.
K-line chart of Zhonglu Co., Ltd.
ST Setia rose nearly 2.5 times in the first three quarters of 2022. The company is engaged in the sales of smart terminals, and its main products include mobile smart terminals, IoT perimeter security systems, etc. After the company's stock price hit three consecutive limit-downs in early February, ST Shida started the road to turn around the salted fish. The stock price rose from 70 cents to a maximum of nearly 7 yuan, almost a tenfold increase. In the end, a total of 45 daily limit boards were recorded in the first three quarters of 2022, and a record of 25 consecutive boards was set in the first half of 2022.
The analysis pointed out that the reason for the rise of ST Setia's share price is that the restructuring plan is progressing smoothly. On December 31, 2021, the company issued an announcement that the implementation of the reorganization plan was completed. The reorganization investors will strongly support the company's Internet of Things business, and will inject big data and other assets at the right time to make the listed company a high-quality listing in China's IT field. platform.
ST Shida K line chart
Chuanyi Technology also doubled in the first three quarters of 2022. Its stock price rose rapidly in the third quarter, reaching as high as 51.15 yuan per share during the session. This stock belongs to the electronics sector and is a sodium battery concept stock.
In the latest news, Chuanyi Technology responded to investors' questions on the interactive platform on September 26, saying that the installation and commissioning of the production equipment and devices of the company's sodium-ion battery project is progressing smoothly, and it has the conditions for pilot production and will soon be put into operation. However, Chuanyi Technology fell by the limit on September 28. After-hours Longhu list data showed that one institution bought a net 8.4466 million yuan, and the two institutions sold a total of 66.5786 million yuan.
Chuanyi Technology K line chart
In terms of decline, the top ten stocks that fell in the first three quarters of 2022 all fell by more than 68%. It is worth noting that there are 4 stocks on the Science and Technology Innovation Board and 5 stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange.
Top decliners in the first three quarters
The market is expected to usher in a shock recovery
The first three quarters ended with a correction. Is the A-share market worth looking forward to in the fourth quarter?
Huang Hai, deputy general manager and investment director of Wanjia Fund, believes that the decline in A-shares in the early stage was mainly due to the tightening of overseas liquidity and the release of the expected risk of economic recession. Since June, the overall domestic economy has shown a slow recovery trend. .
"In the fourth quarter, after the A-shares experienced shocks and bottomed out, the rising market of A-shares will gradually unfold." Huang Hai believes that with the implementation of interest rate hikes in Europe and the United States in September, after the pressure of overseas economic recession increases, the pressure of interest rate hikes is expected to begin to ease marginally. The risk release of the A-share market is expected to come to an end.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, said that in October, although the factors affecting the market have not been completely eliminated, the marginal improvement has been achieved. In fact, in September, when the market adjusted, there were many characteristics of low market conditions. For example, the market Sentiment is depressed and trading volume is light. The trading volume of the two cities is often only 600 billion yuan, which is nearly half of the high point of more than 1 trillion yuan. This is an important feature. In terms of valuation, the valuations of the three major stock indexes are all at historically low valuation levels, which is also an important feature.
Guotai Junan Securities believes that the index is in a stage of shock and volatility, and it is still necessary to maintain appropriate caution in the short term. There is no need to be pessimistic about the middle line. The opportunities for the Shanghai Index near 3000 points outweigh the risks. At present, there is not much room for the market down at the index point.
Yuekai Securities also holds the same view, and the market is not expected to decline significantly. At present, the characteristics of the bottom of the market are gradually emerging. Many indicators such as average daily turnover, dynamic valuation, stock-bond yield difference and fund issuance scale are close to historical low levels. The weak economic recovery and loose liquidity environment do not support the market to decline sharply. In addition, with the gradual release of global risks, the market is expected to usher in shock recovery in October.
Looking forward to the market for a period of time in the future, Orient Securities believes that the overall trend is that profit recovery will gradually support the market, but the valuation is still suppressed by various dimensions. In such a market environment, Orient Securities recommends that the style is based on low valuations, and gradually transition from low-valued small-cap stocks to low-valued large-cap stocks.
Corresponding to the industry allocation, Orient Securities pointed out that in the case of small opportunities at the aggregate level, it should focus on structural opportunities, focusing on the direction of strong fundamental certainty and reasonable valuation in the case of poor economic expectations. On the one hand, it is recommended to focus on energy storage, photovoltaic and wind power with certainty and high prosperity, as well as defense and military sectors. On the other hand, it is recommended to pay attention to the liquor, medical equipment, and agricultural sectors under the logic of future economic recovery.
Yuekai Securities recommends paying attention to two main lines. First, seize thematic investment opportunities and focus on energy and large consumption. Second, pay attention to investment opportunities in sectors with high performance certainty. The performance certainty of sectors such as electronics, chemical raw materials, and power equipment is relatively stronger.
Huang Hai believes that the value risk in the fourth quarter is relatively dominant. On the one hand, the uncertainty of the overseas economic downturn in the fourth quarter has increased, and some corresponding growth stocks with a high proportion of export orders and biased towards manufacturing may face a marginal weakening of the profit side. The value sector is mainly based on domestic demand and has a low valuation, which can better cope with the impact of uncertainty; on the other hand, overseas will still face the pressure of high inflation and interest rate hikes in the fourth quarter, while the domestic market will continue to face the pressure of high inflation and interest rate hikes in the fourth quarter. The policy continues to exert force, and the economic momentum will tend to stabilize, which is beneficial to the variety of value styles.
"For the fourth quarter market, performance is still an important consideration." Yang Delong said that since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of most industries has declined, but the new energy industry is still in a relatively prosperous direction, including the doubling of new energy vehicle sales year-on-year. Compared with traditional automobile sales, the growth rate is relatively high, and the installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power has also nearly doubled. From the performance point of view, we can also pay attention to the performance of consumer stocks in the fourth quarter. Liquor, medicine, food and beverage, tourism, duty-free and other industries that are not affected by centralized procurement may usher in the opportunity for performance recovery in the fourth quarter, and some attention can also be given. In the fourth quarter, the market's center of gravity may move up, and market confidence has rebounded.