# 1220 Market Reflection

By [Alvin on Crypto ](https://paragraph.com/@greyrider) · 2024-12-20

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Over the past two weeks, starting from December 7, Bitcoin consolidated with a slight dip after breaking through 100,000, while altcoins plummeted significantly. The analysis I wrote on December 4, titled _"What Stage of the Bull Market We Are In"_, turned out to be incorrect in the short term. On the contrary, Capo's continuous bearish warnings posted on November 30 and earlier have proven accurate as of today. Interestingly, Capo has been adding to his positions today. This indicates that Capo can't be treated as a 100% counter-indicator.

One major missed signal was from an "ancient whale," wallet ending in 4409. On December 7, which coincided with the peak of my portfolio, the wallet sold 4,453 ETH, accounting for 28.88% of their total holdings. In hindsight, this was the wallet’s only move in this cycle—a high-point exit. This was a wise decision, as bull markets are for selling, not accumulating. Moving forward, this 4409 wallet address should be treated as a critical indicator for identifying market tops. Missing this signal caused my portfolio to retract by 36.36% from its December 7 peak.

Reflecting on my emotions during that period, I did notice the 4409 wallet’s sell-off and recognized potential risks on December 7. However, the market was performing too well, and my portfolio had surged 150% over the previous month. I was overwhelmed with euphoria and greed, making it difficult to follow the sell-off trend. Looking back, the market is inherently contrarian; the actions that feel "hard" to take are often the "right" ones. This is precisely why most people fail to make money in the market: they either don't know what the right action is or find it too physically challenging to act on it.

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*Originally published on [Alvin on Crypto ](https://paragraph.com/@greyrider/1220-market-reflection)*