# why prediction markets don't work


By [Idan Levin](https://paragraph.com/@idanlevin) · 2024-02-09

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The discussion on Crypto Twitter about why prediction markets don’t work really captures the essence of the expectations gap between crypto core enthusiasts/leaders and the users (“the people”).

Crypto enthusiasts love the idea of prediction markets and the information efficiency they can bring to the world when done on an internet scale ([Vitalik’s take’](https://decrypt.co/47178/vitalik-buterin-crypto-prediction-markets-outperformed-forecasts)).

Yet, they seem to overlook that, at the moment, prediction markets are - (drum roll)

not fun.

We can label it differently (UX, etc.), but the truth is they’re just not as much fun right now. or perhaps it’s better said - they’re much less fun compared to other crypto activities.

For example:

*   betting on hamster races on telegram - really fun
    
*   swapping meme coins on uniswap - really fun
    
*   flipping jpegs on blur - really fun
    
*   betting on who will be the next president of Argentina - much less fun. maybe around 10%-15% fun level of the above activities.
    

In terms of contribution to the efficiency of society:

*   betting on hamster races on telegram - zero contribution
    
*   swapping meme coins on uniswap - zero contribution
    
*   flipping jpegs on blur - zero contribution
    
*   betting on the next president of Argentina - significant contribution to information efficiency
    

We need to bring the fun level of prediction markets closer to other activities. then, we’ll reach the ‘changing the world’ zone - lots of fun and significant contribution.

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/fc5c4e2eedf9c9c6db70d90e1ad1a62e936b34eb839f689a24aaf1255660245b.png)

(originally published on idanlevin.xyz on 2024-01-04)

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*Originally published on [Idan Levin](https://paragraph.com/@idanlevin/why-prediction-markets-don-t-work)*