# Pumpfun Public Launch Thoughts By [ison.eth](https://paragraph.com/@ison) · 2025-07-17 --- (was published on 07/10 but medium took my articles down so this is a migration article) information: as of 7/10, hyperliquid launched premarket and premarket price is around 0.005-0.0052 told that there are more acquisitions that are to be announced, not everything has been announced yet but the announcement time is tba bonk is at 2.2b mcap, which is ath for bonk as bonk ecosystem is currently larger than the pumpfun ecosystem there was a private round at 20m, and probably further rounds at different valuation prices, the sale is under a 4b valuation and is releasing 600m (15%) to the public and releasing around 800m(18%) to institutional funds, with the token dilution chart looking pretty shit institution sell price is around 10b, market and trader consensus is a 8b exit, considering this information and in the light of playing this safer, i will be looking to exit around 6-7.5b, laddering sales from 6b (probably around 5-10% of my position every hour) looking to play the coin for less than a week, no long term hold some similar sales to this: otherdeed (bayc), plasma, both completely selling out with i say less fear sentiment compared to pumpfun obviously a lot of eyes, although a lot of people are clowning the sale, most people i know are buying to at least make a couple % off the trade, or anticipate a 2x or larger multiplier. similar to otherdeed, i think although there is a lot of fud sentiment and mixed sentiment on the tl, that the fill should be relatively fast, although that is still hard to definitely say most institutions and traders do not have much information on what the sale is as of now. immediate strategy (within one week): current possible scenarios from likely to unlikely: 1. 600m allocation fills immediately, price sees an upward moment to around 5.5b considering it a little higher than what the premarket has (as the current premarket price can be seen as a reflection of the odds people get their desired fill during allocation as well as market makers making the sale more enticing). because HL price is high, it may be a good idea to have some levels of hedge as people may be expecting the price to move to around 5.3b minimum 2. allocation fills somewhat slow but eventually fills, and slow grinds up to 5b which prompts a larger dump, hard to tell how market will react if the fill is slow 3. does not fill at all, unlikely but possible as the fill amount is quite large, then mcap will instant dump depending on how much the allocation was not filled plays depending on fill scenario as token distribution will start 3 days after sale no matter when the sale ends: 1. full short on hl, hedge the position for a true delta neutral, with the remaining guaranteed profit (3k) can either hold that supply for no cost basis or just immediately sell my supply, hl will be running while people do not have positions, but more people will realize the possibility of a delta neutral hedge (bought 1m, short 1m in order to guarantee price at that point). i think some of the smarter money will be doing this, considering there are already around 70m in OI on hl, there are definitely traders executing this. although tokens are allocated 3 days later, you can pretty much guarantee a sale price at any point given will start selling at 5.7b+ 2. if fills are horrible, hl will be actively dumping, essentially hl price cannot go below 0.004 or else general sale will never fill as investors can just buy off of hl. pretty doomsday, and in this scenario i think price will settle around 0.003 and traders will wait for the 3 day period to end on the sale. although unlikely it is definitely a possibility 3. fills fast, and price pumps immediately on hl, and prompts a position to short for exit, i think this is pretty likely as it seems a couple funds got on early and are not allowed to exit immediately, institutions will use their lp to market make so that price is sustained until at least their exit target is reached, or until their allocation gets unlocked 4. fills, but not fast, hl will probably be at 0.004 or something of that price with probably a deviation of 10%, at this point just need to watch market other considerations: bonk is rising in price because they currently have more revenue and users and are better at rewarding at their platform users (actual airdrops) versus pumpfun not announcing their airdrop timing and it being completely up in the air, i do not actually think bonk has too much room for growth, it will scam pump if pf does well with no longevity. smart money traders may miss to realize the fact that pump has the tl, while bonk tl is a lot weaker and will sort of be a revenge pump for investors who think the “market is wrong” I have a weird feeling airdrop will be announced as tokens are allocated to people, if this is the case, the price will most likely go up, as power users and whale will also attempt to mm the pa --- *Originally published on [ison.eth](https://paragraph.com/@ison/pumpfun-public-launch-thoughts)*