# Long term trend weakening

*Bitcoin*

By [Who was Jacobo?](https://paragraph.com/@jacobog) · 2025-11-19

---

It seems as though everyone thinks a) the 4-year cycle is broken, and b) that means we go up in 2026. What if a) the 4-year cycle sees a top in Q4 of the post-halving year (cycle not broken this time), and b) we don't just go down in 2026, but we have a more prolonged bear market in line with the 18-year property cycle? Bitcoin is digital property rights in its purest form, and given the property market is due (timing wise) for an extended correction, where would this leave our beloved digital gold? A 4-year cycler would expect a bear market and potentially a 70% correction with a low in Q4 of 2026. What if the 4-year cycle breaks AFTER the 2026 bear market, and Bitcoin takes more than 2-3 years to break to new highs? Certainly not impossible. In fact, if the property market does tank (probably due to a major global recession as in 2008-2009), can we expect Bitcoin to be bullish in such economic conditions? I think this would catch the most investors off guard, therefore it's actually quite likely. I've also heard Bob Loukas and Jason Pizzino talk about this possibility.

How would I play it? Cash out a decent chunk (leaving some on in case thesis is wrong), and move slowly if there is a big crash. Could be an excellent time to acquire more properties (in addition to crypto/stocks/gold). But note that in Spain, property prices bottomed between 2013 and 2015 (average 30-40% correction) after 2008 collapse.

---

*Originally published on [Who was Jacobo?](https://paragraph.com/@jacobog/long-term-trend-weakening)*