# Introducing Seer

> A prediction market aggregator and arbitrage platform.

**Published by:** [ink blots](https://paragraph.com/@jonbray/)
**Published on:** 2025-11-19
**URL:** https://paragraph.com/@jonbray/introducing-seer

## Content

Prediction markets were one of the earliest proposed use-cases for smart contract blockchains, promising a way for participants to have skin in the game, hedge against real-world events, and predict outcomes in a way that is more accurate than other methodology. It wasn't until the 2024 election cycle that prediction markets really went mainstream, with Polymarket alone taking in $2.7 billion in volume since their launch in early 2024. As the prediction market meta grows and more protocols launch, this will inevitably lead to fragmentation across markets. Enter Seer. Seer is a prediction market aggregator and arbitrage protocol, building a social-first approach with Farcaster integration that lets you discover and buy positions from any supported market and create an avenue for cross-market arbitrage with matched-pair mintable positions. One interface, many protocols, best price. In addition to aggregating third-party protocols, Seer will host it's own native markets that utilize a matched-pair system for minting positions, a prediction market primitive that allows for advanced arbitrage and shorting opportunities. The router allows for positions to be opened across Seer, Polymarket, and other integrated protocols to deliver the absolute best execution price. Why aggregation + arbitrage?Prediction markets are unique in that one side of each market guarantees a profit. What if you could always be on the winning side of that? When a spread opens up across markets, an opportunity opens up to take both sides of a trade and mathematically guarantee profit. The Seer router tracks these opportunities and lets users take advantage of them quickly. Even when these opportunities aren't present, aggregated routing across integrated markets provides users a way to fill at the best odds available. Continuous arbitrage and routing should also help nudge fragmented markets toward a shared, more accurate probability surface—which improves liquidity, reduces mispricing, and yields better forecasts.Social-firstPrediction markets are social by nature, participants beliefs are traded on the open market. The initial launch of the Seer app and Farcaster mini-app will allow users to:Browse trending markets across Seer, Polymarket, and other integrated protocols.See unified odds, depth, and fees.Buy/sell through their Farcaster wallet on Base, regardless of the venue's underlying network.Share casts with live odds, PnL, and outcome previews.Router v1The initial launch of Seer (January 2026) will feature Seer Router v1, providing:Best-price execution across Seer-native markets and PolymarketUnified portfolio view across all marketsA shared schema for categories, oracles, and metadata so identical markets across chains/protocols can be recognized and routedPublic price/route API for cross-market quotesMarket NormalizationSeer ingests markets from Seer-native, Polymarket, and other venues into a canonical schema which maps identical markets across venues (event, outcomes, oracle/resolution, fees, network, etc.) and normalizes quotes to the same basis (probability/price, fee-inclusive).Best-executionFor buy/sell requests, the router simulates fills across venues using orderbook depth, fees, and bridge costs (for cross-chain venues), selecting the route (or split-route) that yields the best net price and submits transactions accordingly.1-click ArbitrageBox arbitrage is a market-neutral trade that buys opposite payoffs on the same event across two venues when their prices sum to less than 1 after all fees. You can purchase the cheaper "YES" on Venue A and the cheaper "NO" on Venue B for the identical market and resolution. One of these payoffs will settle to 1 and the other to 0; therefore, if: $$total_entry_cost_C = price_yes_A + price_no_B + fees < 1$$ Your payout is exactly 1 and guaranteed profit is locked at entry as 1 - C, independent of the event's outcome. Users can purchase these opportunities with one-click and hold until resolution for a guaranteed profit. Alternatively, users can monitor the current PnL of the position and cash out at any time. As the protocol grows, Seer will utilize protocol-held revenue to execute these trades via arbitrage bots, allowing staked $SEER to capture the profit directly.Matched-pair tokensSeer-native markets are built from the ground-up to make capturing arbitrage across markets easier. Before a result is known, participants can:Buy either side of the market at it's current price, orMint a "matched-pair" by depositing $1 of collateral and receiving 1 YES and 1 NOOnce the event resolves, the winning token redeems for $1 and the losing token for $0. A pair always maps back to $1, but any half of a pair can be sold at market value.Why would you mint both sides?To sell one! Minting creates a fresh inventory of YES/NO so you can sell the side the market currently overvalues. For example, let's say in a given market, NO is trading at $0.55. You can deposit $1, get YES+NO, immediately sell NO for $0.55, and you still hold a YES worth ~$0.45. You just manufactured and sold the expensive side instead of waiting for someone to lend it to you. This is the equivalent of shorting an outcome. It also helps keep prices fair. If NO drifts too high, minters sell NO until prices revert, because they can always turn one pair into cash equal to YES price + NO price (which should be ≈ $1 minus fees).Cross-Venue ArbitrageLet's use an actual example to showcase how you can perform cross-venue arbitrage on Seer using a "Will ETH hit an all-time high in 2025?" market that exists on both Seer and Polymarket, with identical resolution text and cutoff. On Polymarket, a YES costs $0.46 and on Seer a NO costs $0.48You chose 1,000 "pairs", for $1000Seer Router computes the effective sum = 0.46 + 0.48 = 0.94 (< 1, a valid arbitrage)Router executes:Buy 1,000 YES at 0.46 on Polymarket for 460 USDCMint 1,000 YES + 1,000 NO by depositing 1,000 USDC on Seer, then immediately selling 1,000 NO into Seer's liquidity at 0.48, receiving 480 USDCRegardless of the outcome, exactly one of the two claims pays 1,000 USDC, either on Polymarket or Seer. $SEER tokenSeer is being kicked off with the launch of $SEER token on Clanker, which will over time be integrated as a full-fledged protocol and revenue-sharing token. The use-case of $SEER is to:Share protocol and arbitrage revenue with stakersIncentivize liquidity and alignment across protocols by weighted routing toward high-quality markets, rewarding participation and spread reduction Once the Seer Router v1 is launched, $SEER holders will be able to stake their tokens in order to split protocol revenue from native markets and captured arbitrage opportunities.Tokenomics$SEER token was launched via Clanker on November 19th 2025. Contract Address: 0x45336c84101C6fceDE30c6316Ea72FDBbd753B07Liquidity: 60%Dev Allocation: 5% — to be staked in protocolEarly-adopter reservations: 5% — to be distributed through mini-appTreasury: 30% for long-term growth allocations, market incentives, and ecosystem grants. Vaulted tokens vest linearly over 180 days.Trading fees from Clanker are kept as both $ETH and $SEER to prevent ongoing drawdown on price due to fee-collection.Trade $SEER on ClankerRoadmapStage 1 - Router v1 - Jan 2026Farcaster mini-app to browse, quote and buy across external venuesBest-execution routing: fee-inclusive quotes, slippage limits, split routesBox-Arb MVP - `Yes A + No B < 1`with 1-click spread lockUnified portfolio across venuesStage 2 - Seer-Native Mintable Markets (Q2 2026)Launch Seer markets with mintable matched-pairs, AMM, RFQMirror top external markets 1:1 with mapped resolutionsRouter v2 choses cheapest leg via:Direct buy on SeerMint-and-sell complement on Seerexternal venue$SEER staking with protocol fee-sharingStage 3 - Ecosystem AlignmentOpen APIs for quotes, routes, third-party botsProtocol-level arbitrage botsPooled arbitrage vaults: users stake capital to a managed vault that executes micro-arbs with pro-rate PnL sharingGovernance: $SEER holders tune fees, incentives, grantsFollow SeerFollow @seerspace and @jonbray.eth on Farcaster for updates.-- End --

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