# Mikoshi Prediction *Japan’s Prediction Market* By [Mikoshi](https://paragraph.com/@mikoshi) · 2026-01-16 --- We are launching **Mikoshi**, a Japan’s prediction market. In this article, we introduce the overview and mechanics of Mikoshi. What Is a Prediction Market? ---------------------------- A prediction market is a market where people trade based on their expectations about the outcomes of future events. The scale of prediction markets has been expanding rapidly. By late 2025, monthly trading volume exceeded USD 13 billion. In 2025, Kalshi recorded annual trading volume of USD 23.8 billion, representing an elevenfold increase year over year, while Polymarket is also expected to reach USD 22–25 billion in trading volume. ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/01cfae0a94fcfd4b3d23bffc41b136ba4f6af35efe38991c6fbaed3bb4378758.png) **Source:** [https://dailycoin.com/prediction-markets-explode-in-2025-the-new-gold-rush-beyond-sports/](https://dailycoin.com/prediction-markets-explode-in-2025-the-new-gold-rush-beyond-sports/) Odds (probabilities) formed in real time by a large number of participants have often demonstrated higher accuracy than expert forecasts across areas such as politics, economics, and sports. This phenomenon is commonly referred to as the “wisdom of the crowd,” and prediction markets are increasingly being positioned as a next-generation form of media. In fact, prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have announced partnerships with major media organizations including Dow Jones and CNBC. ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/0d1c153e94b551f6e677e6deae09f92a6cd18fd07d61d7d67e43487d90bae356.png) source: [https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/polymarket-and-dow-jones-partner-to-integrate-prediction-market-data](https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/polymarket-and-dow-jones-partner-to-integrate-prediction-market-data) By contrast, prediction markets in Japan have yet to take off, due in part to regulatory constraints. Mikoshi, which is launching this time, is an on-chain prediction market where participation and voting data are shared in a transparent and verifiable manner. **Built within the Oasys ecosystem, which is centered around gaming communities, Mikoshi aims to present a new model for prediction markets in Japan—as a legal, point-based form of entertainment.** What Is Mikoshi? ---------------- Mikoshi is a prediction market where users participate by placing pOAS bets on the outcomes of future events. From crypto asset price movements to sports events, Mikoshi focuses on questions with clearly defined outcomes, where user participation forms the market itself. By using pOAS, Mikoshi can be offered legally in Japan and is designed to integrate naturally with the game ecosystem on Oasys. How It Works ------------ Mikoshi consists of two types of markets: **Price Prediction** and **Event Prediction**. ### Price Prediction Markets focused on short-term crypto price movements. * **Betting asset:** pOAS * **Prediction:** ETH / BTC price movement (UP / DOWN) * **Payout:** Fixed 1.7× payout * **Market duration:** 1–5 minutes * **Liquidity:** On-chain house vault * **Oracle:** Aggregated external price sources * **Fee:** 15% of the bet amount ### Event Prediction Markets focused on longer-term real-world events such as sports competitions. * **Betting asset:** pOAS * **Prediction:** Outcomes for specific events * **Payout:** Dynamic; payout multipliers change in real time based on the bet distribution for each answer, with the total pool distributed proportionally to winners * **Market duration:** 2 weeks or longer * **Liquidity:** Formed by participant bets * **Oracle:** Outcomes resolved by the operator based on official and publicly verifiable sources Roadmap ------- ### Price Prediction Launch Mikoshi will initially launch with Price Prediction only. By focusing on markets with fast resolution, we will establish the core protocol foundation, including user experience and operational flow. ### Event Prediction Introduction Once the Price Prediction foundation is established, Event Prediction will be introduced in phases. These event-based markets expand Mikoshi into longer-term prediction domains. #### Initial Theme Schedule (Planned) * **February:** Milano–Cortina d’Ampezzo Winter Olympics * **March:** F1 Japanese Grand Prix (Final) * **April:** The Masters Tournament * **May:** French Open * **June–July:** FIFA World Cup Initial rollout will focus on sports events with clear outcomes and broad accessibility. ### Expanding the Points Economy (Future Vision) In the future, Mikoshi aims to expand beyond pOAS by increasing compatibility and partnerships with other point services. By forming a broader points economy on Mikoshi, participation in prediction markets can connect naturally with other services and experiences. About Mikoshi ------------- Mikoshi is a market where users participate by predicting the outcomes of future events. Using the pOAS, point on Oasys chain, users can participate in markets covering crypto price movements, sports events, and more. **Predict. Bet. Win.** [https://x.com/mikoshibysaisen](https://x.com/mikoshibysaisen) --- *Originally published on [Mikoshi](https://paragraph.com/@mikoshi/mikoshi-prediction)*