# Mikoshi Prediction

> Japan’s Prediction Market

**Published by:** [Mikoshi](https://paragraph.com/@mikoshi/)
**Published on:** 2026-01-16
**URL:** https://paragraph.com/@mikoshi/mikoshi-prediction

## Content

We are launching Mikoshi, a Japan’s prediction market. In this article, we introduce the overview and mechanics of Mikoshi.What Is a Prediction Market?A prediction market is a market where people trade based on their expectations about the outcomes of future events. The scale of prediction markets has been expanding rapidly. By late 2025, monthly trading volume exceeded USD 13 billion. In 2025, Kalshi recorded annual trading volume of USD 23.8 billion, representing an elevenfold increase year over year, while Polymarket is also expected to reach USD 22–25 billion in trading volume.Source: https://dailycoin.com/prediction-markets-explode-in-2025-the-new-gold-rush-beyond-sports/Odds (probabilities) formed in real time by a large number of participants have often demonstrated higher accuracy than expert forecasts across areas such as politics, economics, and sports. This phenomenon is commonly referred to as the “wisdom of the crowd,” and prediction markets are increasingly being positioned as a next-generation form of media. In fact, prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have announced partnerships with major media organizations including Dow Jones and CNBC.source: https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/polymarket-and-dow-jones-partner-to-integrate-prediction-market-dataBy contrast, prediction markets in Japan have yet to take off, due in part to regulatory constraints. Mikoshi, which is launching this time, is an on-chain prediction market where participation and voting data are shared in a transparent and verifiable manner. Built within the Oasys ecosystem, which is centered around gaming communities, Mikoshi aims to present a new model for prediction markets in Japan—as a legal, point-based form of entertainment.What Is Mikoshi?Mikoshi is a prediction market where users participate by placing pOAS bets on the outcomes of future events. From crypto asset price movements to sports events, Mikoshi focuses on questions with clearly defined outcomes, where user participation forms the market itself. By using pOAS, Mikoshi can be offered legally in Japan and is designed to integrate naturally with the game ecosystem on Oasys.How It WorksMikoshi consists of two types of markets: Price Prediction and Event Prediction.Price PredictionMarkets focused on short-term crypto price movements.Betting asset: pOASPrediction: ETH / BTC price movement (UP / DOWN)Payout: Fixed 1.7× payoutMarket duration: 1–5 minutesLiquidity: On-chain house vaultOracle: Aggregated external price sourcesFee: 15% of the bet amountEvent PredictionMarkets focused on longer-term real-world events such as sports competitions.Betting asset: pOASPrediction: Outcomes for specific eventsPayout: Dynamic; payout multipliers change in real time based on the bet distribution for each answer, with the total pool distributed proportionally to winnersMarket duration: 2 weeks or longerLiquidity: Formed by participant betsOracle: Outcomes resolved by the operator based on official and publicly verifiable sourcesRoadmapPrice Prediction LaunchMikoshi will initially launch with Price Prediction only. By focusing on markets with fast resolution, we will establish the core protocol foundation, including user experience and operational flow.Event Prediction IntroductionOnce the Price Prediction foundation is established, Event Prediction will be introduced in phases. These event-based markets expand Mikoshi into longer-term prediction domains.Initial Theme Schedule (Planned)February: Milano–Cortina d’Ampezzo Winter OlympicsMarch: F1 Japanese Grand Prix (Final)April: The Masters TournamentMay: French OpenJune–July: FIFA World CupInitial rollout will focus on sports events with clear outcomes and broad accessibility.Expanding the Points Economy (Future Vision)In the future, Mikoshi aims to expand beyond pOAS by increasing compatibility and partnerships with other point services. By forming a broader points economy on Mikoshi, participation in prediction markets can connect naturally with other services and experiences.About MikoshiMikoshi is a market where users participate by predicting the outcomes of future events. Using the pOAS, point on Oasys chain, users can participate in markets covering crypto price movements, sports events, and more. Predict. Bet. Win. https://x.com/mikoshibysaisen

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