# How Much of the Trillion-Dollar AI Agent Market Can Web3 Capture?

*Nvidia CEO: "AI Agents Represent a Trillion-Dollar Opportunity"
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By [Modular blockchain](https://paragraph.com/@modular-blockchain) · 2025-02-02

ai agent, web3

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Nvidia's CEO has declared that the "era of AI agents has arrived," highlighting that this emerging field holds a "trillion-dollar business opportunity." Prior to Huang's statement, in the fourth quarter of 2024, user interest had already shifted towards Web3 AI agents, which are gradually evolving by leveraging the infrastructure and frameworks provided by Web3 and AI.

On January 2, the market value of various Web3 AI agents achieved significant breakthroughs: Ai16zDAO reached a market value of $2.6 billion through the Eliza framework, and Virtuals achieved a market value of $5 billion through GAME. Four days later, ARC reached a market value of $450 million through the RIG framework, and Zerebro reached $783 million through the Zerepy framework. By January 12, the total market value of 1,210 agents under the Cookie framework reached $7.5 billion for Solana agents and $5.5 billion for Base agents, with a combined market value exceeding $13 billion.

**Considering the Trillion-Dollar Opportunity and the Growth So Far, What Could the Future Market Value of Web3 AI Agents Be?**  
Given the trillion-dollar opportunity and the growth seen so far, it is crucial to consider the market share of traditional AI companies (such as OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, etc.) to analyze the potential market share and development timeline for Web3 AI agents.

**Analysis of AI Technology Adoption**  
It took 35 years for email to reach 1 billion users since its inception. In contrast, ChatGPT, launched in November 2022, currently has nearly 200 million monthly active users (MAUs). For reference, consider the following technology adoption curve:

**How Much of the Trillion-Dollar AI Agent Market Can Web3 Capture?**

There are currently approximately 4.8 billion unique email addresses globally, with ChatGPT users accounting for about 4.2%. Even with initial growth slowdowns due to language barriers and computational resource limitations, at the current monthly user growth rate of about 14 million, if the growth accelerates twofold (thanks to broader access, competition, etc.), reaching 28.6 million new users per month, the total number of new users over the next 24 months would be:

28.6 million × 24 months ≈ 686 million

Adding the existing 200 million users, by 2026, ChatGPT's total user base is projected to approach 886 million.

Assuming by 2026:

*   **Paid Users:** 886 million × 0.10 (conversion rate) = 88.6 million paid users
    
*   **Monthly Revenue:** 88.6 million × $20 = $1.77 billion/month
    
*   **Annual Revenue:** $1.77 billion × 12 = $21.24 billion/year
    

If we apply a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 5 to estimate market value, and consider a premium multiple, this would value ChatGPT at approximately $100 billion (compared to its latest private market valuation of $157 billion). Huang Renxun has stated that AI agents could represent a trillion-dollar opportunity. Assuming ChatGPT captures 15% of this total market size, this still leaves a market space of $850 billion to be captured.

**So the Question Is: How Much Market Share Can Web3 AI Agents Capture?**

**Web3 Market Share Analysis**  
We can apply the "Bitcoin-to-gold ratio" to the AI agent market. Currently, Bitcoin's market value is about 10.9% of the total market value of gold. If Web3 AI agents can capture a market share similar to the Bitcoin/gold ratio:

$850 billion × 10.9% = $92.65 billion (potential size of the Web3 AI agent market).

However, there are factors that may suggest Web3 AI agents could capture a higher market share:

**Advantages of Web3 Agents:**

*   **Decentralized Infrastructure:** The infrastructure of decentralized networks already exists and can be directly utilized.
    
*   **Token Incentive Mechanisms:** Tokenized reward mechanisms to encourage user and developer participation.
    
*   **Smart Contract Automation:** Efficient automation through smart contracts.
    
*   **Built-in Payment Functions:** Seamless integration of payment functions within the Web3 ecosystem.
    
*   **Data Sovereignty and Ownership:** Users can truly own and control their own data.
    

**Unique Capabilities of Web3 Agents:**

*   **Tokenized Ownership of Agents:** Allows users to own agents through tokens.
    
*   **DAO Integration:** Seamless integration with DAOs for community-driven management and decision-making.
    
*   **Composability with DeFi:** Web3 agents can seamlessly connect with decentralized finance applications to expand their functionality and value.
    

Given these unique advantages of Web3 AI agents, their market share could exceed the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio. If we consider the following three scenarios:

*   **Low Expectation:** 10.9% (Bitcoin/gold ratio) = $92.65 billion
    
*   **Medium Expectation:** 20% = $170 billion
    
*   **High Expectation:** 30% = $255 billion
    

The potential of the Web3 agent market could be much greater, especially as these advantages are further explored and fully utilized.

**Conclusion**  
The rise of Web3 AI agents represents the intersection of two transformative technologies. ChatGPT's rapid growth to 200 million MAUs in just two years provides an important benchmark for the accelerated adoption of AI technology. Using the 10.9% Bitcoin-to-gold market value ratio as a conservative baseline and applying it to the estimated $850 billion AI agent market opportunity (excluding ChatGPT's share), the market size of Web3 AI agents could reach $92.65 billion. Given Web3's inherent advantages, such as decentralized infrastructure, token-based incentives, smart contract automation, and built-in payment systems, a higher market share is possible. A 20% market share is a reasonable expectation, supporting a market size of $170 billion.

Moreover, Web3 agents' unique capabilities in tokenized agent ownership, DAO integration, and composability with DeFi enable them to fully leverage the rapid adoption trajectory of AI technology and the existing infrastructure of blockchain technology. Therefore, this field has the potential to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the intersection of AI and blockchain technologies.

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*Originally published on [Modular blockchain](https://paragraph.com/@modular-blockchain/how-much-of-the-trillion-dollar-ai-agent-market-can-web3-capture)*
