# Station B was fooled by capital By [Nicole](https://paragraph.com/@nicole-8) · 2022-04-02 --- Welcome to the wechat subscription number of “Sina Technology”: techsina Wen / Jia Qi Looking at the financial report of station B, the focus should be on its R & D cost (direction and magnitude), rather than the content of revenue. Advertising, games, live broadcasting and e-commerce, none of the four business segments has a future, I said. External causes of slump Back in February a year ago, the share price of station B was at the highest peak in history. It rose as much as 640.11% in more than a year. It is a well deserved Star stock. Amid all the hype, we wrote down the article “station B has no potential” with our heads firmly, and gave a clear judgment: Station B has reached its heyday. Seize the time window to complete the upgrade, and you will live; if you can’t grasp it, you will die. The share price fell by more than $84, and it was back to the high point of $B. In front of the tragic reality, the first controversial topic has ended - “is station B overestimated?” Now the focus topic of the market is the second: “has the decline been in the end? Where is the bottom?” Before talking about this issue, we should first talk about why station B plummeted. Looking back, there are three main reasons for the decline in station B (ranking in order): 1. The clear guidance of relevant policies on the platform economy, the overall shift of the traditional Internet industry, and the underlying logic of investment in the whole industry have been reconstructed; 2. Young people’s dividends are released in advance. Due to the external mutation, the opportunity window is too narrow, which leads to station B failing to seize the opportunity to complete the transformation and upgrading. In the capital market, the process of commercialization is too slow, and the confidence of relevant capital begins to lose significantly, thus forming a stampede phenomenon; 3. Two major shifts in the game industry: a the voice of the upstream self-research team represented by MIHA tour continues to improve, and the voice of the corresponding channels decreases. B. the regulatory authorities continued to tighten and the issuance of game version numbers was suspended, resulting in “water shortage” in the whole market channel; 4. Behind these three problems, corresponding to the topic of “whether station B can rebound”. 5. It should be understood that many of the above effects are permanent, and the impact of policy is huge. To some extent, it directly changes the value judgment of capital and even entrepreneurs. 6. On the one hand, the head enterprises have begun to follow up hard technology investment, and the behavior of independent research and development is also a very obvious sign. 7. Under this trend, the recognition that “easy money” will not last long has become popular, and investors should realize as soon as possible that all platform businesses with “poor information” as the core will no longer have much development prospects. 8. The peak will never return 9. Specifically, advertising, a typical traffic business, bears the brunt. 10. In this dimension, the traffic of station B has a bright future, but the direct commercial value of the traffic is in doubt. 11. According to the financial report, the advertising business of station B in Q4 in 2021 increased by 120% year-on-year to 1.59 billion yuan, and the annual advertising revenue maintained a year-on-year growth rate of 145%. 12. Considering the depression of the whole advertising industry in 2021, this contrarian growth state is very positive. 13. On the one hand, this achievement is due to the increase in the number of users of station B. in the fourth quarter of 2021, the number of monthly live users (MAU) of station B increased by 35% year-on-year to 272 million; Mobile terminal monthly live users increased by 35% year-on-year to 252 million; The number of daily active users (dau) increased by 34% year-on-year to 72.2 million - the absolute value of traffic; 14. On the other hand, the user characteristics of station B with generation Z as the main body are naturally more attractive to the brand - the quality of traffic; 15. Quantity has space and quality is guaranteed, which is an important reason why people are optimistic about the advertising business of station B. 16. But what we want to say is that under the current policy trend, traffic business is no longer a good business. We are not denying the rationality of advertising business itself, but that under the guidance of “re dividing the cake”, platform companies are the most vulnerable party in the new pattern. 17. The profit margin can be taken by brands (lower marketing costs), up owners, and even consumers (direct coupon subsidies). Only your B station can’t take the big part - at least there will be no more tax days like ten years ago. 18. In addition, although the e-commerce and game industry will not be completely subverted like advertising, the role value of traffic in this field is no longer as obvious as in previous years. 19. The former needs supply chain management ability and fine operation ability, while the latter needs development ability and content smell, and strong gambling. 20. In other words, the development of the industry itself will not be directly “covered” like the pure traffic business such as advertising. In theory, B still has the opportunity to make a breakthrough in these two dimensions. 21. However, considering the difficulties of relevant businesses and the current ability level of station B, we also have a pessimistic attitude towards this. 22. Live broadcasting is a typical traffic business. The best result is to make a wedding dress for the anchor, and the commercialization prospect is also not high. 23. After talking about this, we basically reached a consensus that if station B continues to maintain the current business layout and power state, the problem of “bottom” will not be discussed first, at least it is unlikely to rise back to the “peak”. 24. Strong lower limit 25. Based on the current observation, we are not optimistic about the short-term upper limit of station B. 26. However, in terms of the lower limit, we believe that station B is still irreplaceable. 27. There are also three aspects: 28. The only pugc medium and long-term video community platform in China; 29. Although we are attacking in this field with watermelon video as the starting point, we think the competitive product is difficult to pose an essential threat compared with station B. 30. Although the technical level cannot be compared with that of cosmic factory, community operation needs more control over culture and crowd commonality. In this regard, station B has little experience. 31. In the early years, in station B, there was a summary description of the secondary population, called “the centrifugal force of pursuing personality and the centripetal force of fear of loneliness”, which is a subtle neutralization state. 32. They want to be understood and are willing to publicize their personality, but they must always ensure that their small world is not disturbed. 33. There is no doubt that this trait is actually reflected in the whole Z generation to varying degrees. 34. Chen Rui once said: “the cultural background of the bullet screen is loneliness. It comes from the loneliness of hobbies. The resonance of interest is people’s rigidity 35. --- *Originally published on [Nicole](https://paragraph.com/@nicole-8/station-b-was-fooled-by-capital)*