# #1 – 02.2025

*Onit Prediction Market Protocol Launch*

By [Onit](https://paragraph.com/@onit) · 2025-03-03

prediction-market, prediction, market, bet, onit, launch, protocol, farcaster, base

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We took some time in early January to research a [paper](https://www.paradigm.xyz/2024/12/distribution-markets) released by Paradigm which explored a new type of prediction market. Our research led us to build the first continuous outcome prediction market, and we're excited to say that we have already launched our first markets on Base! We will be publishing monthly updates on our progress, and this first edition will explain what makes our markets unique, and introduce our vision to build a prediction market protocol so every dapp can access them.

What We’re Building
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*   A prediction market protocol that lets users or companies create customisable prediction markets - **think Uniswap for prediction markets**
    
*   Unlike existing prediction markets, **Onit allows bettors to choose exact outcomes**, or create a new outcome if it doesn’t exist yet.
    
    *   Instead of ‘Will more than 100k people attend the event?’ you can bet ‘120k people +/- 10k will attend’
        
    *   For markets like ‘Which product will sell most in 2025?’ users are incentivised to be the first one to add the correct answer as they get a bonus.
        
*   A composable protocol for anyone to use. We are building the **market smart contracts which enable these unique market types and an SDK that lets other projects embed them in any dapp**.
    

Product Features
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*   **Continuous Outcomes**: Choose any value and set a confidence range. Win if the resolved value lies anywhere in your range.
    
*   **Date Markets**: Select a range of dates and win a share of the pot if the true outcome falls on any of your days.
    
*   **Leaderboards**: See where you stand against other Farcaster users
    
    ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/881230a94be2535867cfe25f881766fb.png)
    

Highlights
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*   Researched and built the first continuous outcome prediction market onchain.
    
*   Received great user reactions across Farcaster and Twitter:
    
    [
    
    horsefacts 🚂 on Warpcast
    -------------------------
    
    this is cool https://warpcast.com/peterferguson.eth/0x4792a3ef
    
    Farcaster
    
    ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/85a4eca629f3c6e62cdac3188018392c.png)
    
    ](https://warpcast.com/horsefacts.eth/0xaf5a0b01)
    
    [
    
    Dave White on Warpcast
    ----------------------
    
    🤯 https://warpcast.com/peterferguson.eth/0x4792a3ef
    
    Farcaster
    
    ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/cb5ff909141e31560e3a2716034658b9.png)
    
    ](https://warpcast.com/davewhite/0xc1362a09)
    
    [![User Avatar](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/984f812e4c504848c2b5c18fcdd609db.png)](https://twitter.com/rainbowdotme)
    
    [Rainbow](https://twitter.com/rainbowdotme)
    
    [@rainbowdotme](https://twitter.com/rainbowdotme)
    
    [![Twitter Logo](https://paragraph.xyz/editor/twitter/logo.png)](https://twitter.com/rainbowdotme/status/1895602422208147736)
    
    Fortune tellers and forecastooors will love this![🔮](https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/72x72/1f52e.png)  
      
    New Prediction Markets protocol! With [@onit\_fun](https://twitter.com/onit_fun) you aren't constrained by market makers or pre determined options. Make any market you want, have more fun ![🎉](https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/72x72/1f389.png)  
      
    Date range markets just released, we love what you're building…
    
    ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/044f1420a645e66ba334f62ecebc64e1.png)
    
     [![Like Icon](https://paragraph.xyz/editor/twitter/heart.png) 17](https://twitter.com/rainbowdotme/status/1895602422208147736)[
    
    23:30 • 28 Feb 2025
    
    ](https://twitter.com/rainbowdotme/status/1895602422208147736)
    

Traction
--------

*   Onit Frame Users: 0 → 583
    
*   Total Bets: 0 → 39
    
*   Week 1 Volume: $244
    
*   3 projects requesting Onit markets in their apps, these will be the first to get access to the Onit API.
    

Next Steps
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*   Rollout API to initial protocol users.
    
*   Develop UI for new market types (percentage markets, improvements to date markets)
    

Ask
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*   **Product feedback**. [Try out the frame](https://onit.fun) and let us know what you think!
    
*   **Intros to investors**. If you know any investors interested in protocols, or prediction markets, we'd love to be put in touch (if that sounds like you, drop me a message below and I can send our memo!)
    

* * *

Contact:

Telegram: [james\_onit](https://t.me/james_onit)

Follow Us: [Farcaster](https://warpcast.com/onit) | [Twitter](https://x.com/onit_fun)

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*Originally published on [Onit](https://paragraph.com/@onit/02-2025)*