# A version of this story 

By [LehtonenLillian](https://paragraph.com/@philand) · 2022-07-26

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_A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business' Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up_ [_right here_](https://edition.cnn.com/specials/investing/before-the-bell)_. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link._

London (CNN Business)There's no denying that the US economy is at a strange juncture that's left even top experts scratching their heads.

"If you're not a little confused about the economy, you're not paying attention," former White House economic adviser Jason Furman, who now teaches at Harvard, [recently tweeted](https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1547581591299313667).

Consumers are extremely pessimistic, but they're spending more than they did last year, according to the latest retail sales data. The number of jobs is still growing at a healthy clip and unemployment is [near record lows](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/08/economy/june-jobs-report-final/index.html), but economic output is slowing sharply. In the first three months of the year, it contracted.

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That's stoking debate among policymakers and investors about whether the United States is close to, or already in, a recession — and if it isn't, whether persistent anxiety about one could be enough to make it a reality, as nervous businesses and consumers start to pull back.

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*Originally published on [LehtonenLillian](https://paragraph.com/@philand/a-version-of-this-story)*