# 100K

**Published by:** [Kintsugi Research](https://paragraph.com/@research.kintsugi/)
**Published on:** 2024-12-06
**URL:** https://paragraph.com/@research.kintsugi/100k

## Content

Bitcoin, aka Magic Internet Money, crossed $100k this week.Magic Internet Money memeSince posting Dominance on Nov 9th, the total crypto market cap increased by $1T. To put that number in context, $1T is the total market cap of Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway.Total Crypto Market Cap up 40% since Nov 9 2024Bitcoin is now the 7th most valuable asset in the world.We are beginning to see evidence of the market shifting from a Bitcoin dominated to an Alt dominated regime (aka Alt szn). Alts more than doubled Bitcoin’s performance in the last month (106 vs 43%).'Others' tracks Total Crypto Market excluding top 10 tokensThis is in stark contrast to the last twelve months when Bitcoin more than doubled Alt’s performance (119 vs 52%).BTC vs Others trailing twelve monthsSo What?In the context of a multi-cycle framework, the last time we saw rising Bitcoin, a major drop in Bitcoin dominance, and outperformance by the rest of the crypto market was the period January to May 2021 when:Total crypto market cap increased 247%Bitcoin increased 132%Bitcoin dominance dropped from 74% to 41%The crypto market excluding Bitcoin increased 618%January to May 2021What happens if we apply last cycle growth rates to the market starting when Trump was elected in November? How about more modest growth assumptions?The takeaway even after accounting for the steep price action since November is… Alt szn is here and has plenty of room to run, even with modest growth assumptions.Total Crypto market cap to $5T is up 42% from hereBTC to $120k is up another 23%Crypto market cap excl. BTC to $3T is up another 87%Then the question becomes, which Alt charts have favorable setups with price targets exceeding the 87% expected growth in the overall market excluding BTC? At least that’s the question long term holders have been asking for the last month as they sold $60B of Bitcoin bought at the cycle lows.Some have been buying this defi protocol whose ATH provides a price target which nearly doubles the expected overall market growth (168% vs 87%):My goal with this post is less to perfectly forecast the future and more to share a framework that’s helped me make sense of phase transitions in the market cycle. And the takeaway is clear. Alt szn is here! PS. Nothing captures the current vibe better than Beeple’s Nov 19th Everyday.

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