# Hey Siri

By [Kintsugi Research](https://paragraph.com/@research.kintsugi) · 2024-05-13

---

Hey Siri, what is a hard asset that can’t be debased by the government? And how does its purchasing power compare to the dollar’s over time?

> Bitcoin is a hard asset with a fixed supply that can’t be tampered with by the government. While the dollar’s purchasing power decreases over time, Bitcoin’s purchasing power rose exponentially over the last decade.

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/461ddc44756419d52080ca15f66bcf6f3d05f13c5a71f0daf00ddff70a6ba6f2.png)

Thanks Siri, now explain like I’m 5 years old.

> You need more dollars to buy a house today than you needed 10 years ago. But you need way less Bitcoin.

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/457fb11e470f54730436e2f1df2a5966e76a22eca783aa8f019bc3824dedd804.png)

So What?
--------

You worked hard and saved some shekels over the years. But you recognize that governments cant resist the temptation to create free money for themselves.

**If you don’t convert fiat dollars (money issued by the government) to an asset that maintains its purchasing power over time, Uncle Sam will eventually debase your savings.**

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/e0c6d64dcebd9fcdcbfe5d3049f81e6255d837a33a11ab586b4f7df746f18a78.png)

The Market Cycle
----------------

Bitcoin is not only volatile, its price tends to follow the rhythm of a four year cycle that roughly corresponds with its issuance schedule (halvings) and global liquidity.

![Liquidity consists of all cash and credit available to financial markets, once the immediate transactions needs of the real economy have been fulfilled.](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/fada7aba2b14249df0c97b745ddc14c2cced217515a542c4dc9bfe696a881a14.png)

Liquidity consists of all cash and credit available to financial markets, once the immediate transactions needs of the real economy have been fulfilled.

As I described in [Counting Cards](https://mirror.xyz/research.kintsugi.eth/AgEEkx2vKLqYd9vMFAUA8M6nxHtn2_BHsaAuii_aF8s), one way to manage the volatility of Bitcoin and other risk assets is to increase exposure when an uptrend is most likely and decrease exposure when odds favor a downtrend.

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/22c948bb33e3d6573116a882449d854b6732b07b42c7154aeec0df3495c1c47c.png)

Hey Siri, if bitcoin price and altcoin market share provide a bird’s eye view of the crypto cycle, where might we look for a more nuanced perspective about the present moment and where we are in the cycle?

> A combination of macro and crypto indicators can provide a more nuanced perspective about where we are in the cycle and how to position the most volatile crypto allocation of your portfolio.

Timeframe and Expectations
--------------------------

Before we explore specific macro and crypto indicators, let’s acknowledge the significance of timeframe and expectations.

**Timeframe**

Low timeframe traders often focus on charts with candles measured in minutes or hours. In order for an indicator to be useful to a low timeframe trader, it needs to update in close to real time. So technical analysis based on price action, trading volume, and other metrics derived from price and trading volume are useful. GDP which is updated quarterly? Not so much.

High timeframe traders often focus more on charts with daily or weekly candles and update positioning less often (eg. monthly).

There are many ways to make money as an investor. But when the four year cycle yields over 10x returns if you get the timing remotely right, that’s enough volatility to achieve most financial goals. So I mostly focus on high timeframe tactics aligned with trading the four year crypto cycle.

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/4e62bad3cbc2271758ce5824d882fd7ffc497abcb182eb0e1af34e382066ac20.png)

**Expectations**

Asset prices reflect a consensus set of expectations. This means we need to consider indicators and how aligned expectations about them are with reality.

Both fear and greed can divorce expectations from reality. Investors do best when they bet on beliefs that don’t match consensus expectations for the future AND those beliefs end up being true.

So the ultimate goal is to develop and bet on beliefs that better match reality than consensus expectations.

Macro Indicators
----------------

Asset prices tend to rise when **growth and productivity** exceed expectations, **rates** are low (capital is cheap), and there is abundant **liquidity** competing to purchase assets.

The most volatile assets will increase the most in price during periods of rising asset prices. So investors prefer volatile assets when growth, productivity, and liquidity are _increasing_ and/or rates are _decreasing_.

Note: we care more about rate of change than we care about levels since levels are likely already reflected in asset prices. For example, rates unexpectedly increasing from 2% to 5% is more likely to cause a downtrend in asset prices than rates held steady at 5%.

**Growth and Productivity**

Investors tend to dial up risk when growth and productivity indicators, such as GDP and earnings growth, are likely to exceed expectations.

**Rates**

Rates matter because they influence borrowing costs and spending decisions of households and businesses.

Low rates = Cheap capital = More spending = More growth

The risk free rate is also a key input to [discounted cash flow](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dcf.asp) models investors use to value assets. Higher rates discount future cash flows more and drag down asset prices.

**Liquidity**

If asset prices are a function of supply and demand, liquidity is a key demand driver because liquidity is the amount of capital in the economy available to fund growth and drive up prices by bidding on assets.

[This piece](https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/global-liquidity-watch-weekly-update-14f) by CrossBorder Capital examines global liquidity and the MSCI World index.

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/d0116b1ccdafc7435df9765cc615bd00f74263ed1d48672bda7079714a9e41b7.png)

Crypto Indicators
-----------------

While macro indicators help us model demand for risk assets (a rising tide lifts all boats), crypto indicators help us assess supply and demand for specific tokens.

Since an asset price is determined by the marginal buyer and seller, we need to classify active market participants and determine whether they are more likely to buy or sell at a point in time. More on how we do that in a future piece.

Until then, [Glassnode](https://insights.glassnode.com/the-predictive-power-of-glassnode-data/) has an excellent piece on the predictive power of on chain data and the [Capriole macro index](https://capriole.com/the-capriole-macro-index/) analyzes over 35 macro and crypto indicators to see what fundamentals say about [the market](https://capriole.com/update-49/).

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/7a7fd78ab6622bfd1743b08b5060d473e0a6d58e0b7e90aeb4f09f0c5e6e3556.png)

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/8e7cf96c9375934f90354161939ef4230fc839f2f2abd0340d6b3d82e5777f30.png)

tldr; Don’t Fight the Flows
---------------------------

So from top to bottom, these are the questions we examine:

*   Are investors buying risk assets?
    
*   What is crypto’s share of risk asset flows?
    
*   What is Bitcoin’s share of crypto flows?
    
*   When might crypto flows rotate from Bitcoin to Alts?
    
*   Which Alts are most likely to benefit from the Bitcoin to Alt rotation?
    

Answering these questions is both art and science. It requires humility to acknowledge the future is unknowable and conviction to trust that probabilistic beliefs about the future are still useful.

Maybe one day Siri will have all the answers (or even just play the right song I request during a run).

Until then, we work hard, stay disciplined, keep learning, trust conviction, and aim to consistently win more when we are right than we lose when we are wrong.

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/e4809efc0910eb27d420294296c11b01f3d9f46771b96bcd961fbb8dda8673f5.webp)

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### References

5/15/24

1.  [On chain games thread](https://twitter.com/pet3rpan_/status/1788540076785283121)
    
2.  [Capital Wars: Does Fed Funds rate drive bitcoin?](https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/does-the-fed-funds-rate-drive-bitcoin)
    
3.  [Multicoin: Dawn of Bitcoin Programmability](https://multicoin.capital/2024/05/09/the-dawn-of-bitcoin-programmability/)
    
4.  [Howard Marks: The Impact of Debt](https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/the-impact-of-debt.pdf?sfvrsn=8bea5666_2)
    
5.  [Collab Fund: How I think about debt](https://collabfund.com/blog/how-i-think-about-debt/)
    
6.  [TBL: Gamestop is back](https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/gamestop-is-back-bitcoin-still-has)
    
7.  [Glassnode: Post-Halving Blues](https://insights.glassnode.com/finance-bridge-post-halving-blues/)
    
8.  [Glassnode: Identifying Seller Exhaustion](https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-20-2024/)
    

5/8/24

1.  [TBL: Prepare for what’s coming](https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/prepare-yourself-for-whats-coming)
    
2.  [Arthur Hayes: Mayday](https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/mayday)
    
3.  [Asymmetric Market Update May 2024](https://docsend.com/view/kuwm3ach9bwqgmtx)
    
4.  [WSJ: Trump allies plan to blunt fed independence](https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/trump-allies-federal-reserve-independence-54423c2f)
    
5.  [TBL: Smart Money suggests BTC top already in](https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/smart-money-hints-bitcoins-top-may)
    
6.  [Not Boring: Base power company](https://www.notboring.co/p/base-power-company)
    
7.  [Glassnode: Speculatory divergence](https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-19-2024/)
    
8.  [Bloomberg: Crypto wealth effect](https://twitter.com/ramahluwalia/status/1787435395019407370)
    
9.  [Decrypt: Stripe merchants can accept USDC](https://decrypt.co/228152/stripe-stablecoin-payments-usdc-ethereum-solana)
    
10.  [AIT Protocol deck](https://docsend.com/view/iziz4zghgpf2vrci)
    
11.  [Oraichain white paper](https://docs.orai.io/)
    
12.  [Capital Wars: Global Liquidity Watch](https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/global-liquidity-watch-weekly-update-36a)
    
13.  [Empire: Network Effects and Value Accrual Podcast](https://blockworks.co/podcast/empire/8911584c-f12a-11ee-a7f9-a7c4bbf8e2a5)
    
14.  [Empire: How to Value L1s, L2s, and Crypto Assets](https://blockworks.co/podcast/empire/c0297732-038c-11ef-929d-efc50cab8edb)
    
15.  [Morpheus AI: P2P smart agents](https://medium.com/@Suyu0x/morpheus-ai-the-first-peer-to-peer-network-of-personalized-smart-agents-8a4ed63868f4)
    
16.  [WSJ: Chess teaches power of sacrifice](https://www.wsj.com/sports/chess-teaches-the-power-of-sacrifice-221db7b7)
    

5/1/24

1.  [Howard Marks: Indispensability of Risk](https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/the-indispensability-of-risk.pdf)
    
2.  [Macrumors: Apple’s Generative AI](https://www.macrumors.com/guide/apple-gpt/)
    
3.  [Beginner’s guide to Runes](https://twitter.com/0xCygaar/status/1780810840725409938)
    
4.  [Runes vs BRC-20](https://twitter.com/0xren_cf/status/1773397548222337468)
    
5.  [Dan Held: Runes explainer](https://www.theheldreport.com/p/bitcoin-runes-explainer)
    
6.  [Casey Rodarmor on Runes](https://rodarmor.com/blog/runes/)
    
7.  [Blockworks: Index token for diversified yields](https://blockworks.co/news/index-tokens-for-diversified-eth-yields)
    
8.  [Defiant: Pendle deep dive w TN Lee](https://thedefiant.io/podcasts-and-videos/podcast/pendle-finance-deep-dive-with-founder-tn-lee)
    
9.  [Blockworks: Sommelier Defi vaults now on Arbitrum](https://blockworks.co/news/sommelier-defi-strategy-vaults-now-live-on-arbitrum)
    
10.  [Index Coop: hyETH presale](https://gov.indexcoop.com/t/iip-185-launch-the-high-yield-eth-index-hyeth-pre-sale/4764)
    
11.  [Avi Eisenberg convicted of fraud](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/18/avi-eisenberg-convicted-crypto-defi-mango-markets)
    
12.  [RSIC pooling FAQ](https://twitter.com/Runescollective/status/1778820766101918175)
    
13.  [RSIC inscription](https://www.ord.io/57066799)
    
14.  [Galaxy: Bitcoin halving overview](https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/bitcoin-halving-digital-scarcity-in-action/)
    
15.  [Most interesting crypto social experiments](https://twitter.com/MariaShen/status/1779850842582982714)
    
16.  [Move L2 explainer thread](https://twitter.com/heymaximillian/status/1780989845491298526)
    
17.  [Ionet explainer](https://twitter.com/alpha_pls/status/1779793606150103516)
    
18.  [Mint Ventures: Ionet memo](https://research.mintventures.fund/2024/04/08/a-new-solana-based-ai-depin-project-a-brief-analysis-of-upcoming-tokenlaunch-io-net/)
    
19.  [Decrypt: Nakamoto upgrade](https://decrypt.co/225801/stacks-stx-nakamoto-upgrade-bitvm-rollups-defi)
    
20.  [Signal21 Stacks Q1 2024](https://app.signal21.io/reports/stacks-q1)
    
21.  [Spartan Group: Bitcoin Layers](https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/docpdiq170406drjbipes/Bitcoin-Layers-Report_-Tapestry-of-a-Trustless-Financial-Era-Dec-2023-Edition.pdf?rlkey=ey132m32n05ypr28p6zn25k4q&dl=0)
    
22.  [Glassnode: The Fourth Halving](https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-17-2024/)
    
23.  [Glassnode: Spot ETFs and their impacts](https://insights.glassnode.com/glassnode-spotlights-spot-bitcoin-etfs-and-their-impacts/)
    
24.  [Arthur Hayes: Left Curve](https://cryptohayes.medium.com/left-curve-ef2e1e187027)
    
25.  [Decentral Lens Runes Recap](https://twitter.com/Blutoshi/status/1783200464638783610)
    
26.  [TBL: Bitcoin sends warning](https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/bitcoin-sends-warning)
    
27.  [Lyn Alden: April Newsletter](https://www.lynalden.com/april-2024-newsletter/)
    
28.  [ALEX: Beginner’s guide to Runes](https://medium.com/alexgobtc/a-beginners-guide-to-runes-336e9bdde0e6)
    
29.  [TBL: Stocks rip](https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/stocks-rip-most-in-6-months-as-sticky)
    
30.    
    
31.    
    
32.  [Bybit: Dog to the moon](https://learn.bybit.com/web3/what-is-dog-go-to-the-moon/)
    
33.  [EIGEN token whitepaper](https://github.com/Layr-Labs/whitepaper/blob/master/EIGEN_Token_Whitepaper.pdf)
    
34.  [WSJ: Fed to signal higher for longer](https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/federal-reserve-meeting-interest-rates-inflation-6dcb05e8)
    
35.  [WSJ: ChatGPT boyfriend](https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/chatgpt-ai-boyfriend-spicy-8ac6a6e9)
    
36.  [Glassnode: Surviving Bull Drawdowns](https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-18-2024)
    
37.  [BMPro: Global risks mount as BTC nears end of correction](https://bmpro.substack.com/p/global-risks-mount-as-bitcoin-nears)
    

4/17/24

1.  [How liquid are LRTs?](https://twitter.com/Kairos_Res/status/1777840098337345734)
    
2.  [Pups, Runes, and Ordinals](https://twitter.com/defi_monk/status/1778673045328019810)
    
3.  [L2 Mantle yield opportunities](https://twitter.com/alpha_pls/status/1777026363104362667)
    
4.  [WSJ: Market reaction to Iran](https://www.wsj.com/finance/market-reaction-to-iran-attack-tells-us-stocks-arent-in-a-bubble-e5e0b6fe)
    
5.  [Decrypto: What is Saga?](https://decrypt.co/resources/what-is-saga-gaming-network-airdrop-token-launch)
    
6.  [Franklin Templeton on Runes](https://twitter.com/FTI_DA/status/1779979775651561691/photo/2)
    
7.  [Messari: Babylon and Bitcoin shared security](https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/6lvu8l5ogesrhot3r1yjq/Babylon_-Bitcoin-Shared-Security-and-Staking-_-Messari.pdf?rlkey=kbjzj4e42mz9yd105rfj19c9s&dl=0)
    
8.  [Glassnode: Ethereum’s Staking Issue](https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-16-2024/)
    
9.  [Glassnode: The Q2 Guide to Crypto Markets](https://insights.glassnode.com/coinbase-x-glassnode-intro-article-q2/)
    
10.    
    
11.  [Scalability on Ronin](https://roninchain.com/blog/posts/scalability-on-ronin)
    
12.  [Messari: Wayfinder a new AI agent network](https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/c2nbg71ehidbz4oeagzy0/Wayfinder_-A-new-AI-Agent-Network-_-Messari.pdf?rlkey=d16uzrqpybxr4mkshutvbof3q&dl=0)
    
13.  [Messari: Evaluating the PRIME Thesis](https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/wlfzp91ro2yyztszt20dy/Parallel_-Evaluating-the-PRIME-Thesis-_-Messari.pdf?rlkey=myxyb47snticqedkjnwwtcilg&dl=0)
    

4/10/24

1.  [Bloomberg: JPMorgan says stocks are crowded](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-27/jpmorgan-says-crowded-stocks-sow-risk-of-out-of-the-blue-shock)
    
2.  [Larry Fink: IBIT fastest growing ETF in history](https://twitter.com/ChadSteingraber/status/1773066858729463862)
    
3.  [$ENA token launch](https://mirror.xyz/0xF99d0E4E3435cc9C9868D1C6274DfaB3e2721341/uCBp9VeuLWs-ul1b6AOUAoMg5HBB_iizMIi-11N6nT8)
    
4.  [Over $1B treasuries tokenized](https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-treasurys-tokenized-on-chain-hit-1-billion)  [data](https://dune.com/21co/tokenization-government-securities)
    
5.  [Messari: Memecoins as trojan horse for adoption](https://www.theblock.co/post/285233/memecoins-next-trojan-horse)
    
6.  [$SIGNAL airdrop](https://twitter.com/73lV_/status/1773262561904878024)
    
7.  [TBL: Global macro chart pack](https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/global-macro-chart-pack)
    
8.  [Aylo: Metastreet founder interview](https://www.alphaplease.com/p/the-protocol-fixing-the-nft-market)
    
9.  [$MONAI litepaper](https://monai.dev/lp)
    
10.  [Balaji: All it takes is all you got](https://balajis.com/p/all-it-takes-is-all-you-got)
    
11.  [BitVM](https://bitvm.org/bitvm.pdf)
    
12.  [Messari: Does Bitcoin Need Layers](https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/1n3jg81t6vlmex76e58hg/Discussion_-Does-Bitcoin-need-Layer-2s_-_-Messari.pdf?rlkey=rezway0gfd9lu52g7ez061vsi&dl=0)
    
13.    
    
14.  [Capriole market update](https://capriole.com/update-48/)
    
15.  [$CGPT docs](https://docs.chaingpt.org/)
    
16.  [Gold crosses $3k](https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/gold-to-3000)
    
17.  [McKinsey: Global balance sheet 2022](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/global%20balance%20sheet%202022%20enter%20volatility/global-balance-sheet-2022-enter-volatility.pdf)
    
18.  [Kevin Muir: The Macro Tourist](https://posts.themacrotourist.com/p/weekly-wrap-up-s2024-e13)
    
19.  [Andre Serrano: sBTC Q1 Recap](https://www.bitcoinwrites.com/p/bitcoin-writes-sbtc-q1-recap?utm_source=www.bitcoinwrites.com&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=bitcoin-writes-sbtc-q1-recap)
    
20.  [Bitcoin Runes Explainer](https://www.theheldreport.com/p/bitcoin-runes-explainer)
    
21.  [The Defiant: Vitalik and Arthur Hayes weigh in on memecoins](https://thedefiant.io/vitalik-buterin-and-arthur-hayes-weigh-in-on-memecoin-frenzy)
    
22.  [Glassnode: Liquidity abundance](https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-14-2024/)
    
23.  [Multicoin: Enter the wormhole](https://multicoin.capital/2024/04/03/enter-the-wormhole/)
    
24.  [Pantera: Scaling for mass adoption](https://panteracapital.com/conference-call/thematic-series-scaling-blockchain-for-mass-adoption)
    
25.  [Lisa: The goddess of liquid stacking](https://medium.com/lisalab/introducing-lisa-the-goddess-of-liquid-stacking-cec6c0ad822c)
    
26.  [Nakamoto release thread](https://twitter.com/TychoOnnasch/status/1775566752870481959)
    
27.  [Wilder World gets supercharged](https://www.zine.live/superverse/)
    
28.  [Wilder World roadmap](https://www.zine.live/roadmap-0/)
    
29.  [WSJ: Goldman’s crypto skeptic](https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/bitcoin-price-goldman-01189443)
    
30.  [Coindesk: Ethena adds BTC](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/04/05/ethena-onboards-bitcoin-as-backing-asset-to-make-usde-safer)
    
31.  [PayPal supports stablecoins for international payments](https://www.theblock.co/post/286513/us-paypal-customers-will-be-able-to-use-stablecoin-for-international-payments)
    
32.  [BTC ETF Dashboard](https://dune.com/hildobby/btc-etfs)
    
33.  [Blackrock adds firms to ETF](https://thedefiant.io/blackrock-adds-five-new-firms-to-etf-including-goldman-sachs-citigroup)
    
34.  [State of Bitcoin Q1 2024](https://www.dropbox.com/s/9rran1ca7c0cpxe/State%20of%20Bitcoin%20Q1%202024%20_%20Messari.pdf?dl=0)
    
35.  [State of Solana Q1 2024](https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/cyff236jb0v8w00i7rxrv/State-of-Solana-Q1-2024-_-Messari.pdf?rlkey=b6ajrcqkp8xhq4e6ps927q2f9&dl=0)
    
36.  [Macro Compass: 2007 déjà vu](https://www.dropbox.com/s/h8bzi6x9z60obwu/20240406082554_06_04__tmc_report_a_twisted_2007_deja_vu.pdf?dl=0)
    
37.  [Arthur Hayes: Heatwave](https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/heatwave)
    
38.  [Pantera: Blockchain’s dial up to broadband moment](https://panteracapital.com/blockchain-letter/blockchains-dial-up-to-broadband-moment/)
    
39.  [Near multichain transaction signing](https://cointelegraph.com/news/near-multichain-transactions-single-account)
    
40.  [NVIDIA GTC24: Transforming AI](https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/on-demand/session/gtc24-s63046/)
    
41.  [RSS3 Foundation Letter](https://rss3.io/blog/en/rss3-foundation-letter-march-2024)
    
42.  [A16z: Jolt](https://a16zcrypto.com/posts/article/building-jolt/)
    
43.  [Glassnode: Spot driven rally](https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-15-2024/)
    

3/27/24

1.  [TBL: Switzerland surprise cut](https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/switzerland-surprise-cut-why)
    
2.  [The Block: Goldman sees resurgence of interest in crypto](https://www.theblock.co/post/284366/goldman-sachs-client-interest-crypto)
    
3.  [Raoul Pal: Macro summer](https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1772039605501481191)
    
4.  [TechCrunch: NVIDIA could be the next AWS](https://techcrunch.com/2024/03/24/nvidia-could-be-primed-to-be-the-next-aws/)
    
5.  [Yield curve failed as recession indicator](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-inverted-yield-curve-and-the-leading-economic-index-have-failed-as-recession-predictors-160058160.html)
    
6.  [Arbitrum memecoin fund](https://forum.arbitrum.foundation/t/arbitrums-memecoin-fund/22743)
    
7.  [Avax framework for community coins](https://www.avax.network/blog/avalanche-foundation-eligibility-criteria-framework-for-community-coins)
    
8.  [Memecoins as skill based global lottery](https://twitter.com/Rewkang/status/1769472821191688654)
    
9.  [BMPro: Argentinians buy BTC to combat inflation](https://bmpro.substack.com/p/argentinians-buy-bitcoin-to-combat)
    
10.  [Nillion on Personalized AI](https://twitter.com/nillionnetwork/status/1752433717446901887)
    
11.  [TBL: Microstrategy the best trade of 2024](https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/microstrategy-has-been-the-best-trade)
    
12.  [Kaiko: Data debrief](https://marketing.kaiko.com/eth-lags-despite-successful-upgrade-1)
    
13.  [Macro Compass: The Fed’s Dual Mandate](https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/f493u2xuluf1ct2p60xee/20240321111317_21_03__tmc_report__dual_mandate.pdf?rlkey=gdapcsuwfl0w39jfbqbyrofhq&dl=0)
    
14.  [Messari: Inside Bittensor (TAO)](https://www.dropbox.com/s/zzxqvamg6in61ti/Inside%20Bittensor_%20Dynamic%20TAO%20%26%20New%20Subnets%20_%20Messari.pdf?dl=0)
    
15.  [Eternal AI whitepaper](https://cdn.eternalai.org/docs/whitepaper.pdf)
    
16.  [Glassnode: Taking Profit](https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-13-2024/)
    
17.  [Stability AI announcement](https://stability.ai/news/stabilityai-announcement)
    
18.  [Wired: Is AI the Future of NPCs](https://www.wired.com/story/artificial-intelligence-ai-non-player-characters-npcs-future/)
    
19.  [Ubisoft Generative AI NPCs](https://news.ubisoft.com/en-us/article/5qXdxhshJBXoanFZApdG3L/how-ubisofts-new-generative-ai-prototype-changes-the-narrative-for-npcs)
    
20.  [AI Token Merger announced](https://www.theblock.co/post/285020/fetch-ai-singularitynet-and-ocean-protocol-tokens-surge-amid-merger-plans)
    
21.  [How to snipe memecoins](https://twitter.com/leshka_eth/status/1772712215323578412)
    

3/20/24

1.  [Messari: Market potential of fully on chain games](https://messari.io/report/analyzing-market-potential-of-fully-on-chain-games)
    
2.  [Franklin Templeton on memecoins](https://twitter.com/FTI_DA/status/1767969299350610040)
    
3.  [The memecoin presale strategy](https://twitter.com/ramahluwalia/status/1768232869204308147)
    
4.  [Multicoin: The Attention Theory of Value](https://multicoin.capital/2024/03/12/publisher-exchanges-consumer-applications-and-the-attention-theory-of-value/)
    
5.  [Botanix founder interview](https://www.alphaplease.com/p/the-first-fully-decentralized-evm) and [whitepaper](https://a-us.storyblok.com/f/1014909/x/8bdb3e5611/botanix-protocol-whitepaper.pdf)
    
6.  [TBL: Bitcoin to pass MMFs](https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/bitcoin-to-pass-mmfs)
    
7.  [Solana Defi Thread](https://twitter.com/SuperteamDAO/status/1768311731703427173?s=20)
    
8.  [$PRIME thesis](https://twitter.com/alpha_pls/status/1768563014284824877?s=20)
    
9.  [The Block: Solana search interest surges](https://www.theblock.co/post/283005/solanas-search-interest-hits-record-high)
    
10.  [Oil prices trade at 4.5 month high](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-trade-at-4-1-2-month-high-as-drone-attacks-crimp-russia-output-8cf5aa94)
    
11.  [Barrons: NVIDIA developer conference coverage](https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/nvidia-gtc-ai-conference)
    
12.  [Memecoin thesis](https://twitter.com/Rewkang/status/1769472821191688654)
    
13.  [Bloomberg: Equity rally at risk from yields](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-18/morgan-stanley-s-wilson-says-yields-near-key-level-for-stocks)
    
14.  [Kaiko: ETH lags despite successful upgrade](https://marketing.kaiko.com/eth-lags-despite-successful-upgrade)
    
15.  [TBL: Inflation wont come down and the fed is pissed](https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/inflation-wont-come-down-and-the)
    
16.  [WSJ: Fed waiting game](https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/federal-reserve-interest-rate-cuts-rules-bd19a124)
    
17.  [TBL: Japan scraps yield curve control](https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/japan-scraps-yield-curve-control)
    
18.  [Starheroes wiki](https://wiki.starheroes.community/)
    

3/13/24

1.  [Messari: AI Coins and Trends](https://messari.io/report/analyst-notes-ai-coins-and-trends)
    
2.  [Ritual x IO.net](https://twitter.com/ritualnet/status/1762204801188659662)
    
3.  [Banyan x IO.net](https://twitter.com/ionet_official/status/1763317277221343395)
    
4.  [Akash community greenlights $3.5M GPU purchase program](https://twitter.com/gregosuri/status/1756098797296329066)
    
5.  [Akash adds supply](https://twitter.com/gregosuri/status/1760722479272661047)
    
6.  [Messari: ETH Denver analyst takeaways](https://messari.io/report/eth-denver-2024-analyst-takeaways)
    
7.  [WSJ: Gold’s curious rally](https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/what-you-need-to-know-about-golds-curious-rally-feb05e56)
    
8.  [Defiant: Retail investors are cautiously returning](https://thedefiant.io/retail-investors-are-cautiously-returning-to-crypto)
    
9.  [The Zama FHE master plan](https://www.zama.ai/post/zama-fhe-master-plan)
    
10.    
    
11.  [Decentralized AI and Morpheus](https://streameth.org/watch?event=decentralize_ai_day__eth_denver_2024&session=65df6576bf97e02da98d2869)
    
12.  [NOUS Research Talk](https://streameth.org/watch?event=decentralize_ai_day__eth_denver_2024&session=65df657abf97e02da98d2878)
    
13.  [Lumerin + Morpheus](https://streameth.org/watch?event=decentralize_ai_day__eth_denver_2024&session=65df6584bf97e02da98d28a5)
    
14.  [Messari: Ethena goddess of yield](https://messari.io/report/ethena-the-goddess-of-yield) via [Shards](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xs1u2mAumrSR_vke3Lx8a_6NZ2rZ1d9O/edit)
    
15.  [Messari analyst Ethena discussion](https://messari.io/report/analyst-discussion-ethena)
    
16.  [Glassnode: Bitcoin breaks to new highs](https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-11-2024/)
    

3/6/24

1.  [Enqai white paper](https://enqai.com/wp)
    
2.  [Vaneck on crypto AI](https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-vanecks-crypto-ai-revenue-predictions-by-2030/)
    
3.  [TBL: Bank risk, soft data, and booming bitcoin](https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/bank-risk-soft-data-and-booming-bitcoin)
    
4.    
    
5.  [WSJ: Bitcoin’s stunning climb](https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/bitcoin-price-record-charts-86a00638)
    
6.  [TBL: The 2024 Paradox](https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/the-2024-paradox-high-interest-rates)
    
7.  [Synesis One Litepaper](https://synesis.gitbook.io/synesisone) & [EOY Newsletter](https://medium.com/synesis-one/end-of-the-year-newsletter-12b85784eaca)
    

2/28/24

1.  [Arthur Hayes: Chief Story Officer](https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/chief-story-officer)
    
2.  [Pendle Points Trading explainer](https://pendle.gitbook.io/pendle-academy/ecosystem-and-resources/points-trading)
    
3.    
    
4.  [Bloomberg: Summers warns market underpricing disorder](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-22/summers-warns-markets-may-be-underpricing-the-risk-of-disorder)
    
5.  [Bloomberg: Fed minutes show officials flagged risk of cutting rates](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-21/most-fed-officials-flagged-risks-of-cutting-rates-too-quickly)
    
6.  [Collab + Currency: Running Bittensor](https://medium.com/collab-currency/running-bittensor-9d0e810d2483)
    
7.  [Lyn Alden: Economic Reacceleration, Feb 2024 Newsletter](https://www.lynalden.com/february-2024-newsletter/)
    
8.  [Decrypto: Pudgy Penguin $10M+ toy sales](https://decrypt.co/218420/pudgy-penguins-10-million-toy-sales-walmart)
    
9.  [Glassnode: Speculation in both directions](https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-09-2024/)
    
10.  [The Block: Arweave launches testnet for scalable compute layer](https://www.theblock.co/post/279215/arweave-releases-testnet-for-absurdly-scalable-compute-layer-designed-for-social-media-ai)
    
11.  [BalanceAI weekly report](https://balancedao.medium.com/balanceai-weekly-report-8be35e42d939)

---

*Originally published on [Kintsugi Research](https://paragraph.com/@research.kintsugi/hey-siri)*