# Weekly SPX Cycle Report By [SwingTrading with Cycles](https://paragraph.com/@swingtrading) · 2022-08-28 --- **TL;DR** Massive sell signal. Ugly reaction to the Jackson Hole speech creates bearish weekly swing high suggesting the weekly cycle decline has started. **Overview** We knew this week would be important because we were set up for a weekly swing high based on how we closed the week of 8/15. The Friday sell off following the “hawkish” [Jackson Hole speech](https://youtu.be/zJ3sEeArWlw) delivers that weekly swing high with authority. In the process the monthly candle has gone from green to red with only a few trading days left. How we finish out this daily cycle is the most important piece of the puzzle so let’s get into it. **The Daily Cycle** Friday was day 48 of the current daily cycle and and as we know we’re late in the daily cycle but that doesn’t mean we can’t see a waterfall decline from here even as we would expect a daily cycle low to emerge at some point in the next week or two. At this point the next daily swing low is our possible DCL. Keep in mind we had a swing low as of 8/24 which looked like a daily cycle low in real time which failed when we made a new low on Friday (8/26) as discussed in this detailed [video](https://youtu.be/V3qD7U41qGk) ![Daily chart of S&P 500 showing Daily Cycle Lows (DCL)marked with the day of the low below the candle and Daily Cycle Highs (DCH)marked above the high of the respective candle](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/c3ba7290720f6af8286c4617989dc2f1a659da3e12408f4eda79198b42589d29.jpg) Daily chart of S&P 500 showing Daily Cycle Lows (DCL)marked with the day of the low below the candle and Daily Cycle Highs (DCH)marked above the high of the respective candle * _Current Count_: Day 49 * _Previous Daily Cycle Low_: Day 54 (5/12/22) * _Current DCH_: Day 40 **The Weekly Cycle** This past week was week 10 and we broke decisively below the previous week’s low which caused a bearish weekly swing high. This is very ominous assuming we don’t get a huge bullish reversal this coming week. The previous 2 weekly cycles have been relatively short at 16 and 20 weeks respectively. This suggests a longer weekly cycle this time around and if we are beginning the weekly cycle decline here on week 10, we have quite a bit of room to go in terms of downside since we would expect a weekly cycle of at least 20 weeks. There is always a chance for a bullish reversal next week or even some consolidation that has the chance to resolve to the upside but the odds greatly favor more downside over the next few months and most importantly, suggests a red candle next month. ![Weekly chart of S&P 500 showing Intermediate/Weekly Cycle Lows (ICL) marked with the week of the low below the candle and Intermediate/Weekly Cycle Highs (ICH) marked above the high of the respective candle](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/251f16247f490dea87b1882ec0699a1565ba4c836c01cb1a0c3c937aa649dcf0.jpg) Weekly chart of S&P 500 showing Intermediate/Weekly Cycle Lows (ICL) marked with the week of the low below the candle and Intermediate/Weekly Cycle Highs (ICH) marked above the high of the respective candle * _Current Week_: 10 * _Previous Intermediate/Weekly Cycle Low_: Week 16 (6/17/22) * _Current ICH_: Week 9 (8/15) **The Long Term (3 Year) Cycle** As mentioned [last week](https://mirror.xyz/swingtrading.eth/SP3i56f0P7pRyCgv9SoJUHWS05SuXAiHc9PcCagIIbY), the key level for the monthly chart is 4112 which was the opening price. That means below that level, the monthly chart goes red and we begin to threaten making new lows. With the bearish action Friday we closed well below that 4112 level creating a red monthly candle and downside pressure going into September. As mentioned, the way the daily cycle decline unfolds will determine how the monthly signals play out. We have just 3 trading days left for the monthly candle so we’re are set up to open September as an inside month as a best case scenario. ![Monthly chart of S&P 500 showing Long-Term Cycle Lows (LCL) marked with the month of the low below the candle and Long-Term Cycle Highs (LCH) marked above the high of the respective candle](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/0576a12215b84ee56f0b83bf0c0eca9980fcadfc6f095c0d4df3794b906360d6.jpg) Monthly chart of S&P 500 showing Long-Term Cycle Lows (LCL) marked with the month of the low below the candle and Long-Term Cycle Highs (LCH) marked above the high of the respective candle **Conclusion** The price action indicates the beginning of the weekly cycle decline. This is a textbook sell signal on the weekly level so a fairly significant data point. Next week we will either see consolidation or follow through but if this signal is right, we are early in the weekly cycle decline so there’s no rush to go short as we would expect a multi-week decline from here. --- *Originally published on [SwingTrading with Cycles](https://paragraph.com/@swingtrading/weekly-spx-cycle-report-3)*