# Weekly SPX Cycle Report By [SwingTrading with Cycles](https://paragraph.com/@swingtrading) · 2022-10-09 --- **TL;DR** SPX is still in weekly cycle decline with week 17 starting on Monday (Oct 10). Last week was the first green week in the last 4 but the bearish reaction to the jobs report on Friday created a sizable upper wick on the weekly candle which means we will start trading as an inside week. Inside candles generally mean a lot of chop and “trappy” moves where price does not follow through in either direction. We have the CPI release on Oct 13 so we may have this choppy action until the catalyst is out of the way. **The Daily Cycle** Friday was day 23 of the daily cycle and the daily cycle high was on day 4.. There is still a swing low in place from day 18 but that may not hold for much longer. This week we have the CPI release coming up on Thursday at 8:30am EST. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the market mostly consolidate until that number is released since it’s the most important data point this month as it will give the market clues about the next Fed rate hike in November. It’s also important to note that the downside move on Friday caused the weekly candle to develop a large upper wick which means next week will open as an inside week. More detail on that below. ![Daily chart of S&P 500 showing Daily Cycle Lows (DCL)marked with the day of the low below the candle and Daily Cycle Highs (DCH) marked above the high of the respective candle](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/46df0144c98d6b851ca76861817b46cd27592a1306775abc567dfe4a7c37b508.jpg) Daily chart of S&P 500 showing Daily Cycle Lows (DCL)marked with the day of the low below the candle and Daily Cycle Highs (DCH) marked above the high of the respective candle * _Current Count_: Day 23 * _Previous Daily Cycle Low_: Day 54 (9/6/22) * _Current DCH_: Day 4 (Sept 12) **The Weekly Cycle** This past week was week 16 and we were able to make a high above the high from week 15 earlier in the week by getting above 3737. This means at that time, we had a weekly swing low in place while price remained above 3737. This is always a precarious situation where you’re early in the week because things can change as more daily action plays out which is exactly what happened in this case. The big pullback following the jobs number took price below 3737 and we’re now going to enter choppy action with the new week starting. The other important context is we are still in the [declining phase](https://mirror.xyz/swingtrading.eth/bYCnOxFLsB4GTgCPmJKzNrH34_1XfuLepCSMcIgMv-Y) of the weekly cycle though it’s already relatively late since Monday (Oct 10) will start week 17. Since the rally for this weekly cycle lasted 9 weeks, we would expect the decline to last 9 week or more to give us a left translated weekly cycle. That would suggest we have at least another 2 weeks before we get this weekly cycle low. Also keep in mind that if we are in the declining phase of the 3 year cycle as we suspect, we will get another left translated weekly cycle after this one. That means we could see a more convincing rally that lasts even a few months before rolling over and moving into the final 3 year cycle low. Very important next few weeks developing here and we will watch the monthly chart for clues. As discussed in this [video](https://youtu.be/6ako0Zctmd4), this coming week will be an inside week until we get outside of the range of week 16 which is everything between 3807 and 3605. That’s obviously a massive zone which is why trading in the early part of the week will likely be full of annoying rangebound action until we get a more decisive resolution with the CPI release. ![Weekly chart of SPX going back to 2016 with the 200 week moving average in yellow. Price has not revisited this average since the COVID crash where we closed below it for a few weeks](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/9eafa9119c29944ad179be91922f8191113b4414db9c24a0eec7217467baa322.jpg) Weekly chart of SPX going back to 2016 with the 200 week moving average in yellow. Price has not revisited this average since the COVID crash where we closed below it for a few weeks * _Current Week_: 16 * _Previous Intermediate/Weekly Cycle Low_: Week 16 (6/17/22) * _Current ICH_: Week 9 (8/15) **The Long Term (3 Year) Cycle** Last week was the start of a new monthly and quarterly candle as we began Q4 trading. We have 3 red down (lower low) quarterly candles in a row for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis between 2007 and 2009 and as this quarterly candle continues to develop we will see if it also ends red. As we can see from the 2000 bubble, in that ensuing decline we had a few periods where we had a green quarter or two which just served as a lower high within the long term down trend that saw price fall for almost 3 years before hitting a bottom and starting a new long term cycle advance. There’s no way to know what kind of decline we will get but it’s important to remain vigilant and aware of the different possible scenarios. One big thing we will watch for here is if this monthly candle can remain green. We know we opened the month at 3609.78 so if we drop below this level that turns the monthly candle green and it’s a strong signal that the monthly downtrend is about to make a new lower low. ![Monthly chart of S&P 500 showing Long-Term Cycle Lows (LCL) marked with the month of the low below the candle and Long-Term Cycle Highs (LCH) marked above the high of the respective candle](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/553156326b65181546c18b885977f829517dd188e65b1923bf87c209db166b73.jpg) Monthly chart of S&P 500 showing Long-Term Cycle Lows (LCL) marked with the month of the low below the candle and Long-Term Cycle Highs (LCH) marked above the high of the respective candle * _Current Month_: 31 * _Current Long Term Cycle High (LTH)_: Month 22 (Jan. 2022) * Approximate Cycle Low Timing: March 2023 **Conclusion** The market is once again waiting on more inflation data and the CPI release on Thursday morning will delivery the volatility we expect. Patience is important in the early part of the week as the market will likely not commit to a direction until after the CPI catalyst. --- *Originally published on [SwingTrading with Cycles](https://paragraph.com/@swingtrading/weekly-spx-cycle-report-8)*