# Synth Subnet - Miners Performance Commentary #18 By [Synth](https://paragraph.com/@synthdata) · 2025-07-23 --- Data From 2025-07-07 To 2025-07-13 **Synth Rewards** ----------------- With the current value of Synth Alpha, last week, Synth paid 20,716 Alpha tokens to miners, equivalent to $85,766. Since March 2025, a total of 410,208 Alpha tokens have been distributed to miners, worth $1,698,261. On a monthly average since Synth’s dtao launch in February 2025, Synth has paid $377,391 to miners, more than double Numerai’s average monthly payout of $186,058. **BTC and ETH Volatility** -------------------------- Figure 1 illustrates hourly log returns and volatility for the week, highlighting the relationship between BTC and ETH. While overall volatility remained relatively stable, two notable spikes occurred midweek (October 9th and 10th). These were instances of positive volatility, driven primarily by strong upward price movements. ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/59d1ef8c77be06f8089b3bc8c5a98ec7a09e3acee5e3f5274a1e0c9e123890cb.png) **Miners Performance** ---------------------- This week, we monitored the performance of four key miners: * **Miners 221, 32, and 129** – Finished the week in the top three on the Synth leaderboard * **Miner 200** – Dropped out of the top three during the week Miners 200 and 221 are part of **axon 35.77.6.189**, Miner 32 belongs to **axon 3.112.97.164**, and Miner 129 is part of **axon 116.202.53.142**. The data suggests increasing competition between axons, indicating that models from different clusters are becoming increasingly competitive—benefiting the overall health and quality of the subnet. As usual, performance was evaluated using two key metrics: * **CRPS** (Continuous Ranked Probability Score) for BTC and ETH forecasts * **Leaderboard Scores** **Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS)**. Lower CRPS values indicate better predictive accuracy. Throughout the week, CRPS values for BTC showed intense competition. Notably, Miner 129—previously the leaderboard leader—lost ground toward the weekend, particularly on Sunday the 13th, likely due to overestimating weekend volatility.Miner 129 also experienced a modest drop in ETH performance over the weekend, despite strong results earlier in the week. Conversely, Miner 200 underperformed midweek but posted much-improved ETH CRPS values during the low-volatility weekend. Miners 32 and 221 showed performance patterns similar to Miner 200. ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/6bde4dfc7a8df6abbec1334fd3a03052a8f003a8335583a816ad6162ed00d934.png) **Leaderboard Scores**. These are exponentially weighted averages of past CRPS values over a 10-day window. Lower scores indicate better performance. This week, ETH performance and weekend scores had a significant influence on leaderboard positions. Miner 129, despite a strong midweek comeback, lost the top spot by the weekend but remained in the top three. Miner 200’s fluctuations closely mirrored their ETH CRPS trajectory, with midweek underperformance and weekend recovery. Miners 32 and 221, with slightly better overall scores, secured their places in the top three. ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/1cc573cf887eb9c6537921982af5721195353f4dac4d03ded17ed4e2c9513533.png) **Miners’ Strategies** ---------------------- This section analyzes summary statistics—volatility, kurtosis, and skewness—to detect potential strategic differences among top miners for both BTC and ETH. Summary Statistic Definitions: * Volatility: Variability in forecasted returns * Kurtosis: Measures the "tailedness" of the distribution—how likely extreme events are * Skewness: Measures the asymmetry of return distributions (0 = symmetric) Figure 4 presents these statistics for the four miners across the week. ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/64696c360972e1eff1b4dedef22d5b5ca1b2468a7fbf24649fef41579098011c.png) Miners 221, 32, and 200 displayed very similar statistical profiles, with closely aligned volatility, kurtosis, and skewness, both in level and variation. In contrast, Miner 129 appeared to downplay kurtosis and skewness, focusing instead on maintaining lower volatility. This approach did not pay off in the long term, as evidenced by the loss of the leaderboard top position over the weekend. **Miners’ Ranking vs. Summary Statistics:** All miners who submitted forecasts were ranked by total weekly rewards. Figure 5 shows how summary statistics vary across ranking tiers. ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/789b5098f475ddfde59a77dc606616d3bcc16253764597140ef267b5221d7a35.png) This week, even lower-tier miners appeared to place greater emphasis on volatility modeling. For both BTC and ETH, their forecasted volatility levels approached those of the top-tier miners—another sign of rising quality across the subnet. Kurtosis modeling is also gaining traction, with second-tier miners (ranks 10–20) increasingly emulating the modeling patterns of the top 10. **Analysis by Axons** --------------------- To assess performance at the group level, we analyzed: * Axon size (number of miners) * Average and total rewards per axon * Axon-level summary statistics (BTC forecasts) Figure 6 shows the number of miners per axon at the end of the week. ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/42a37b98ceed7023471ac6b7f9587e6beff7460657eebaecd305500367b0371d.png) As in previous weeks, **axon 116.202.53.142** had the highest number of registered miners, followed by **138.201.62.165** and **95.216.99.113**. Figure 7 shows the evolution of average (per miner) and total daily rewards for the top 10 axons by average reward. ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/d7b71defaa75c6c0f6a1f885ca59a7e2e0161382b849dbf90e156efe8c4b7c64.png) The axon-level dynamics mirrored those of individual miners. Axon 116.202.53.142 earned the highest total weekly rewards. However, its total rewards decreased toward the end of the week, and its average daily rewards were in line with others—suggesting its performance heavily depended on Miner 129. Meanwhile, axons 35.77.6.189 and 3.112.97.164 saw average daily rewards increase over the weekend, reflecting stronger miner performance compared to Miner 129. ### **All-Time Rewards (Since May 19th 2025) Per Axon** 1. Axon 116.202.53.142 - Total Alpha Tokens: 33,847 (= $ 140,126) 2. Axon 35.77.6.189 - Total Alpha Tokens: 25,375 (= $ 105,053) 3. Axon 186.233.184.223 - Total Alpha Tokens: 21,309 (= $ 88,218) 4. Axon 95.216.99.113 - Total Alpha Tokens: 19,307 (= $ 79,929) 5. Axon 18.183.47.137 - Total Alpha Tokens: 13,499 (= $ 55,886) 6. Axon 3.112.97.164 - Total Alpha Tokens: 13,073 (= $ 54,120) 7. Axon 95.111.205.93 - Total Alpha Tokens: 8,478 (= $ 35,100) 8. Axon 35.78.218.102 - Total Alpha Tokens: 7,202 (= $ 29,815) 9. Axon 103.88.234.233 - Total Alpha Tokens: 6,318 (= $ 26,155) 10. Axon 185.141.218.212 - Total Alpha Tokens: 4,902 (= $ 20,295) **Figure 8** compares the top 10 axons (by average rewards) based on BTC modeling statistics: average intraday volatility, volatility variability, and average intraday kurtosis. ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/a237bb0c01a01bbd3be1c2e268383af848cade00c5bd4ea59007f64033bfc176.png) This figure sheds light on Miner 129’s weekend decline. Miners from axon 116.202.53.142 generally **anticipated higher volatility** compared to others. While most axons reduced volatility forecasts over the weekend, this axon increased them. Additionally, its miners had some of the **lowest intraday volatility and kurtosis values**, possibly limiting their ability to adapt to real-time market changes. In contrast, other axons displayed higher and more variable intraday volatility and kurtosis—potentially enabling better responsiveness. **Takeaways** ------------- This week’s analysis reveals several noteworthy trends: * **ETH performance is becoming more influential** in overall miner rankings * **Competition among axons** is intensifying, with three different axons battling for top spots throughout the week * **Lower-tier miners are improving**, particularly in volatility modeling, and are starting to adopt strategies used by top performers These developments point to a **healthier and more competitive subnet**, with greater emphasis on modeling distributional nuances—especially for ETH, which is playing a larger role in leaderboard scoring. Starting last week, **Gold** has been added to the set of assets modeled by Synth miners. We expect miners who successfully capture meaningful dynamics in this asset’s distribution to gain a competitive edge. Beginning next week, we will start reporting miner scores for Gold forecasts. --- *Originally published on [Synth](https://paragraph.com/@synthdata/synth-subnet-miners-performance-commentary-18)*