# Synth Subnet - Miners Performance Commentary #20

By [Synth](https://paragraph.com/@synthdata) · 2025-07-30

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Data From 2025-07-21 To 2025-07-27

Synth Rewards
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With the current value of Synth Alpha, Synth paid **20,694 Alpha tokens** to miners last week, equivalent to **$59,599**. Since March 2025, a total of **448,640 Alpha tokens** have been distributed to miners, worth **$1,292,083**. On a monthly average since March 2025, Synth has paid **$258,417** to miners, **exceeding Numerai’s average monthly payout of** **$197,554**.

BTC, ETH, and XAU Volatility
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Figure 1 illustrates hourly log returns and volatility for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Gold (XAU) during the week.

Of the three assets, **XAU was the least volatile**, **ETH the most**, with **BTC falling in between**. The **most volatile period occurred mid-week**, from **July 23 to July 25**.

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/70f9e432988340cb3f4f7ac7430504cec78e1e1a4110830cf337b8771aba6865.png)

Miners Performance
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This week, we monitored the performance of six key miners:

*   **Top Performers**: Miners 85, 169, and 61
    
*   **Dropped Out of Top Three**: Miners 153, 65, and 154
    

Axon affiliations:

*   Miner 61, 85, 154 → axon 95.216.99.113
    
*   Miners 65, 153, 169 → axon 116.202.53.142
    

Performance was evaluated using two main metrics:

*   **CRPS** (Continuous Ranked Probability Score) for BTC and ETH forecasts
    
*   **Leaderboard Scores**
    

**Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS)**. Lower CRPS values indicate better predictive accuracy.

*   For **BTC**, Miners 153 and 154 performed well early in the week. By **Sunday, July 27**, Miners 85, 169, and 61 were leading.
    
*   For **ETH**, Miners 85, 169, and 61 excelled on **Tuesday, July 22**, while Miners 65 and 154 stood out mid-week. Overall, **all miners except Miner 65 performed consistently well throughout the week**.
    

For **XAU**, **Miner 61** demonstrated consistent strong performance mid-week, with all miners performing similarly at the start and end of the week.

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/e9dfbeb41df57f8c476afbc6220bd501fa8286914314da7846d18e0ad6ded08b.png)

**Leaderboard Scores**. These are exponentially weighted averages of past CRPS values over a 10-day window. Lower scores indicate better performance.

Miners 85, 169, and 61 consistently improved their scores during the week—**dropping from just over 150 to around 110**. In contrast, Miners 153, 65, and 154 had stable scores, fluctuating around **120–130**.

Miner 65 saw a slight deterioration in its leaderboard score due to poor weekend performance, increasing from **~135 at the start** to **~145 by week's end**.

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/9b305b68b3156688f73b4267caa3fc463003137b0d938d220449799dfeb210f2.png)

Miners’ Strategies
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This section analyzes summary statistics—volatility, kurtosis, and skewness—to detect potential strategic differences among top miners for both BTC and ETH.

Summary Statistic Definitions:

*   Volatility: Variability in forecasted returns
    
*   Kurtosis: Measures the "tailedness" of the distribution—how likely extreme events are
    
*   Skewness: Measures the asymmetry of return distributions (0 = symmetric)
    

Figure 4 presents these statistics for the four miners across the week.

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/c7fd287482bdecbfeca44a79364dfed13b745f8bc35cb86936ae5142dcdf14d3.png)

Across all assets and metrics, **miners showed highly similar distributional choices**, likely due to shared axon affiliation. The only noticeable difference was in **forecasted volatility for XAU**, which was flatter and less variable for Miners 169 and 61 compared to others.

**Miners’ Ranking vs. Summary Statistics:** All miners who submitted forecasts were ranked by total weekly rewards. Figure 5 shows how summary statistics vary across ranking tiers.

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/ad55e571924a73ab6de980239c6cee2dcadf9def2408434625081db7a39ba9ec.png)

Miners ranked **1–70** had very similar average weekly **volatility and kurtosis** across all assets. In contrast, **lower-ranked miners** exhibited much greater variability in these statistics, suggesting less consistency or riskier strategies.

Analysis by Axons
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To assess performance at the group level, we analyzed:

*   Axon size (number of miners)
    
*   Average and total rewards per axon
    
*   Axon-level summary statistics (BTC, ETH, and XAU forecasts)
    

Figure 6 shows the number of miners per axon at the end of the week.

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/2759723892dbdebc7e64d50d14035a1104a6422774fb1c21214d6cf284af50a9.png)

*   **Axon 116.202.53.142** had the largest group (47 miners)
    
*   **Axon 95.216.99.113** increased from 20 to 24 miners
    
*   **Axon 138.201.62.165** remained at 21 miners
    

Figure 7 shows the evolution of average (per miner) and total daily rewards for the top 10 axons by average reward.

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/5317524b6c2b1500455b1a36714ed15bc84181c0a25fe77b92eb4fe27252c6a5.png)

As far as the weekly rewards are concerned: Axon 116.202.53.142 earned the most, also due to its size in terms of number of miners Axon 95.216.99.113 had higher per-miner rewards Axon 35.77.6.189 started strong but declined mid-week All-Time Rewards (Since May 19, 2025)

1.  Axon 116.202.53.142 - Total Alpha Tokens: 55,501 (= $ 159,842)
    
2.  Axon 95.216.99.113 - Total Alpha Tokens: 30,253 (= $ 87,128)
    
3.  Axon 35.77.6.189 - Total Alpha Tokens: 26,250 (= $ 75,600)
    
4.  Axon 186.233.184.223 - Total Alpha Tokens: 20,834 (= $ 60,001)
    
5.  Axon 18.183.47.137 - Total Alpha Tokens: 13,666 (= $ 39,357)
    
6.  Axon 3.112.97.164 - Total Alpha Tokens: 13,435 (= $ 38,693)
    
7.  Axon 95.111.205.93 - Total Alpha Tokens: 8,456 (= $ 24,352)
    
8.  Axon 35.78.218.102 - Total Alpha Tokens: 7,275 (= $ 20,953)
    
9.  Axon 103.88.234.233 - Total Alpha Tokens: 6,121 (= $ 17,629)
    
10.  Axon 160.202.130.77 - Total Alpha Tokens: 4,347 (= $ 12,518)
    

Figure 8 compares the top 10 axons (by average rewards) based on BTC, ETH, and XAU modeling statistics: average intraday volatility, volatility variability, and average intraday kurtosis.

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/cddacc0bd043358114107cb374c981b6b5436bf9a3756cd23295d47bcba4620b.png)

The two leading axons—**116.202.53.142 and 95.216.99.113**—shared similar modeling styles in terms of volatility and kurtosis. They successfully **captured mid-week volatility spikes** and the **end-of-week drop**.

While their volatility estimates reflected real-time market conditions effectively, both produced **zero kurtosis forecasts** throughout the week. This could indicate an area for strategic improvement that may offer an edge over other axons.

Takeaways
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This week’s leaders were miners from **axons 116.202.53.142 and 95.216.99.113**, who demonstrated strong adaptability in capturing real-time asset volatility.

To further improve, these miners should consider incorporating **non-zero kurtosis** into their forecasts. Meanwhile, **miners from other axons need to refine their volatility estimates** to match the performance of the top groups.

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*Originally published on [Synth](https://paragraph.com/@synthdata/synth-subnet-miners-performance-commentary-20)*