# This app doesn’t exist *but it should* By [Tredici](https://paragraph.com/@tredici) · 2025-08-24 app, prediction, markets, pooltogether, polymarket, thrirteen, ethereum --- Polymarket ---------- No it’s not this one Let me explain. But first some context: **Prediction markets** have been a sensational hit over the past year. Usage spiked during the elections, and while trading volumes have eased since that peak, they’ve stayed **relevant**—and didn’t crater to zero after Election Day. ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/813b6d0c7cb7b565e43d805e99a11157.png) ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/5e45b850bc38e99c2ae7b35937d3c512.png) ### **The turning point** The real inflection point for Polymarket was the **2024 U.S. election**. I remember watching the traditional polls and then checking **Polymarket**, which was giving Trump a moderate **edge**. We know how that _played out_. One anecdote doesn’t prove anything statistically, but it does showcase why prediction markets can outperform vibes and punditry: **skin in the game**. When people put real money behind a view, two things happen: **Selection**: only those who think they have an edge bother to bet. **Discipline**: positions get cut when the world disagrees and the P&L hurts. If you don’t have convinction you will probably exit. That’s **a self-correcting machine** that creates the best **real-time approximation** of what **informed people believe to be true.** ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/b11696d64c39b85cad6994688914324e.png) None of this makes prediction markets a crystal ball. They’re better **aggregators, not oracles.** They drift toward **truth** when liquidity is decent, questions are unambiguous, information is broadly accessible, and incentives aren’t warped. Break any of those and the magic fades. Remember the “next Pope” markets? No one knew the outcome. That’s the point: prediction markets are great thermometers, not prophets. Polymarket is a sharper signal than polls in many contexts—but it’s not foolproof. A live probability stream, not a guarantee. The table makes it obvious: **Polymarket beats a sportsbook on almost everything**—scope, pricing, flexibility, information signal. ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/c5537b2f31c4caa8ff890d94e72de5fb.png) **But the risk of capital is the same.** Sure, on Polymarket you can cut **losses** by selling when a bet turns against you (most sportsbooks’ cash-out is worse or absent), but **the core risk remains**. And that’s the thing that turns a “fun bet” into a problem for a lot of people. So what do I actually want—what is **missing**? Well, for starters, the ability to make multiple bets, not only on single events, and also… a way to bet without risking money. What? Do I want a house that hands out free money? **That’s dumb**. A **no-loss sportsbook?** Wait… wasn’t there already a no-loss lottery? What was it called? Pooltogether ------------ I **love PoolTogether**—not because I made a ton of money using it (I didn’t), but because it’s **super smart**. It’s a **savings protocol wearing a lottery costume**: it nudges people to save, then occasionally sprinkles prizes. How it works (quickly): * 🏦 **You deposit** into a shared pool. * 📈 **Those deposits earn yield** in the background. * 🏆 **The yield is randomly awarded** as prizes to the users—while **everyone keeps their stake** and can withdraw. That’s why it’s a true **no-loss lottery**. …so what (if)? ----------------- There’s a gap between **“save money, maybe win”** and **“bet money, maybe lose.”** * **People want fun with stakes, not ruin.** PoolTogether is super cool as a _no-loss lottery_, but it’s not exactly **_fun_**: it’s pure **luck**, low-agency, and mostly "deposit, wait, hope"—there’s no weekly narrative or genuine skill expression. * **Polymarket is a mainstream innovation** because it turns **real-world events into tradable markets**, aggregates beliefs into prices, and rewards informed/skilled participants—but you **risk real money** and many users won’t cross that line. ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/f989099652338a406677099ed21bd258.png) Best of both worlds: A **no-loss, skill-based weekly game with real prizes**. Keep your money safe like PoolTogether; showcase your skills like Polymarket; enjoy every week. Thirteen (temporary name, up for suggestions) --------------------------------------------- > **Thirteen turns your knowledge into prizes:** predict **13 outcomes** across sports, politics, and culture each week—**get them all right, win the grand prize, and never risk your stake.** * Deposit **100** (e.g., USDC) to enter this week’s game. * You can pick your outcomes for each of the 13 events and hit submit. * All deposits earn yield; **the yield funds the jackpot**. * Hit **13/13** → take the **weekly jackpot** (split if multiple winners). No 13/13? that week’s jackpot rolls over into next week jackpot Pt.2 + Demo in the next few weeks Feedback appreciated -------------------------------------------------------- --- *Originally published on [Tredici](https://paragraph.com/@tredici/this-app-doesnt-exist)*