# 🟣 WTF! Bull Market CANCELED? *3 Reasons Why Crypto is Falling* By [Web3 Academy](https://paragraph.com/@web3academy) · 2024-01-24 cryptocurrency, web3 --- **GM DOers!** 😎 Bitcoin finally got its monthly GOD CANDLE after the ETF approval – but not in the direction everyone was expecting. 📉 Bitcoin dumped… Hard!  ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/dd19f70aaec277e35dc354cb1ffaf71e.png) Most Altcoins followed suit, and degens were already applying for gigs at McDonald’s. [![User Avatar](https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1607967887305887745/pN-Bl6pc_normal.jpg)](https://twitter.com/AutismCapital) [Autism Capital 🧩](https://twitter.com/AutismCapital) [@AutismCapital](https://twitter.com/AutismCapital) [![Twitter Logo](https://paragraph.xyz/editor/twitter/logo.png)](https://twitter.com/AutismCapital/status/1749824424017092667) “Welcome back, our little investor!” ![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GEigCT7XAAEwEJ1.jpg) [![Like Icon](https://paragraph.xyz/editor/twitter/heart.png) 1,935](https://twitter.com/AutismCapital/status/1749824424017092667)[ 21:30 • 23 Jan 2024 ](https://twitter.com/AutismCapital/status/1749824424017092667) So WTF is going on? Why is crypto falling? Did someone cancel the bull market? ❌ In today’s newsletter, I wanted to share with you 3 reasons why crypto has been on a downfall lately.  1. The $GBTC Sell-off 😨 2. The Mt. Gox Meme 🤡 3. The Typical Cycle Pre-Halving 🤷 At the end, I’ll share my thoughts about where we’re at in the market and what you should be doing right now, so make sure you read until the end. 👀 Let’s get into it. ⏬ **Reason 1: The $GBTC Sell-off** 😨 ----------------------------------- Since the approval of the Spot BTC ETF, a whopping $3.4 billion in $GBTC shares have been sold since January 11th. [![User Avatar](https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1585057390403194886/T25RX9X9_normal.jpg)](https://twitter.com/kgreifeld) [Katie Greifeld](https://twitter.com/kgreifeld) [@kgreifeld](https://twitter.com/kgreifeld) [![Twitter Logo](https://paragraph.xyz/editor/twitter/logo.png)](https://twitter.com/kgreifeld/status/1749769802799857914) $GBTC outflows look like a waterfall $3.4 billion in outflows so far ![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GEhuRZ7XcAAk1Xv.png) [![Like Icon](https://paragraph.xyz/editor/twitter/heart.png) 491](https://twitter.com/kgreifeld/status/1749769802799857914)[ 17:53 • 23 Jan 2024 ](https://twitter.com/kgreifeld/status/1749769802799857914) There are a few reasons why this is happening: ### **Arbitrage Traders** $GBTC used to be a Bitcoin fund before it was converted into a Spot ETF.  During that time, $GBTC was sold at a 'discount to NAV', meaning you could buy $GBTC shares for less than the actual Bitcoin value they represented.  This setup allowed traders to buy low and sell high, especially after it converted to an ETF, which increased the share’s price. We actually highlighted this opportunity for our newsletter readers back in September. [Check that article out here](https://paragraph.xyz/@web3academy/grayscale-bitcoin-opportunity). JPMorgan estimates that traders bought about $3 billion worth of $GBTC looking to benefit from a closing of the fund's discount to NAV. [![User Avatar](https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1430879040156667904/NlbJjd-l_normal.png)](https://twitter.com/CoinDesk) [CoinDesk](https://twitter.com/CoinDesk) [@CoinDesk](https://twitter.com/CoinDesk) [![Twitter Logo](https://paragraph.xyz/editor/twitter/logo.png)](https://twitter.com/CoinDesk/status/1748515532419014977) .[@jpmorgan](https://twitter.com/jpmorgan) says an additional $1.5 billion could exit the $BTC space via profit-taking on $GBTC, putting more pressure on the cryptocurrency’s price in the short term. [trib.al/oaezEbt](https://t.co/9DvMcbA85r) [![Like Icon](https://paragraph.xyz/editor/twitter/heart.png) 111](https://twitter.com/CoinDesk/status/1748515532419014977)[ 6:49 • 20 Jan 2024 ](https://twitter.com/CoinDesk/status/1748515532419014977) These traders that capitalized on this opportunity are now cashing out. 🤑 ### **FTX Selling $GBTC** Recently, FTX sold approximately $1 billion of $GBTC shares. [![User Avatar](https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1698747465178959872/oT_AJ0eq_normal.jpg)](https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive) [Bitcoin Archive](https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive) [@BTC\_Archive](https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive) [![Twitter Logo](https://paragraph.xyz/editor/twitter/logo.png)](https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1749472992390684700) BREAKING: FTX liquidated $1b of GBTC shares. Thee have been $2.8B of outflows so far - CoinDesk ![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GEdXce8XoAAa-Xr.jpg) [![Like Icon](https://paragraph.xyz/editor/twitter/heart.png) 1,805](https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1749472992390684700)[ 22:13 • 22 Jan 2024 ](https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1749472992390684700) ### **Investors Seeking Lower Fees** Grayscale’s $GBTC ETF fees are roughly 1.5%. In comparison, Bitwise, BlackRock, Fidelity, ARK and other ETF providers all offer under 0.25% fees.  ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/a68bea22f132d2974accd17cfb8719a8.png) Naturally, investors are exiting $GBTC in favor of other, cheaper ETFs.  We can see this by looking at the inflows, which are much higher than the outflows of Spot Bitcoin ETFs. [![User Avatar](https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1308020912093048833/aLmcb1fg_normal.jpg)](https://twitter.com/BitMEXResearch) [BitMEX Research](https://twitter.com/BitMEXResearch) [@BitMEXResearch](https://twitter.com/BitMEXResearch) [![Twitter Logo](https://paragraph.xyz/editor/twitter/logo.png)](https://twitter.com/BitMEXResearch/status/1749753924045688972) Overall Flow stats for ALL Bitcoin ETPs since 11th Jan 2024: \* New US ETFs: +$4,536m \* GBTC Outflow: -$3,447m \* BITO Outflow: -$143m \* Top 6 European ETP outflow: -$138.8m \* All 23 others Outflow (Rest of Europe, Canada, Brazil etc): -$86m GRAND TOTAL INFLOW: $721m [![Like Icon](https://paragraph.xyz/editor/twitter/heart.png) 393](https://twitter.com/BitMEXResearch/status/1749753924045688972)[ 16:50 • 23 Jan 2024 ](https://twitter.com/BitMEXResearch/status/1749753924045688972) **Reason 2: The Mt. Gox. Meme** 🤡 ---------------------------------- In 2013, Mt. Gox became the world's leading Bitcoin exchange, handling 70% of all Bitcoin transactions. In February 2014, Mt. Gox reported the loss of 850,000 Bitcoins due to a hack. It was a dark day for crypto. 🤕 However, in March 2014, 200,000 Bitcoin were found in an old wallet. Ever since, there’s been ongoing legal battles and plans for compensating the affected users.  The latest on this matter? Apparently, Mt. Gox is sending out emails to affected users to confirm their identities, suggesting that a refund of lost funds is coming very soon.  [![User Avatar](https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1286277858793586689/LJYf_dt3_normal.jpg)](https://twitter.com/SimplyBitcoinTV) [Simply Bitcoin](https://twitter.com/SimplyBitcoinTV) [@SimplyBitcoinTV](https://twitter.com/SimplyBitcoinTV) [![Twitter Logo](https://paragraph.xyz/editor/twitter/logo.png)](https://twitter.com/SimplyBitcoinTV/status/1749718787346059478) BREAKING: Mt. Gox confirms creditors' [#Bitcoin](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bitcoin) addresses for repayment. Chances of 200,000 [#BTC](https://twitter.com/hashtag/BTC) to hit the market over the next two months, per Reddit post ![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GEg_aldbcAAiqkW.png) [![Like Icon](https://paragraph.xyz/editor/twitter/heart.png) 1,081](https://twitter.com/SimplyBitcoinTV/status/1749718787346059478)[ 14:30 • 23 Jan 2024 ](https://twitter.com/SimplyBitcoinTV/status/1749718787346059478) Now, everyone expects 200k Bitcoin to hit the markets within the next few months.  Should you be concerned about this? No!  **First of all,** this Mt. Gox FUD comes up every other month. Each time, everyone is freaking out, yet nothing ever materializes on this topic.  **Second of all**, even if 200,000 $BTC is refunded to users, that doesn’t mean all of it will be sold.  Just chill.  So… We just discovered that: 1. The $GBTC sell-off isn’t as significant as we thought 2. The Mt. Gox news is a nothing burger So what’s really causing this Bitcoin dump? Let’s find out. ⏬ * * * ### 🎙 Where Are Crypto Markets Headed Next? That's the question that we try to answer in our latest podcast episode. Available on your favorite podcast platform. [![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/e29a2c3499c248328b21087bfbc88541.png)](https://youtu.be/TPPUWdFWBTY) [YouTube](https://youtu.be/TPPUWdFWBTY) | [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4QpYNDczQfyd46Gb5XJt00?si=627c48faa1504654) | [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/%24btc-golden-cross-why-are-markets-dumping-w-hal-from/id1611073208?i=1000642735189) * * * **Reason 3: It’s Actually All Normal** 🤷 ----------------------------------------- Historically, Bitcoin has always had a pull-back a few months before the halving occurred.  [![User Avatar](https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/951564258273316864/4qoEQh8Q_normal.jpg)](https://twitter.com/rektcapital) [Rekt Capital](https://twitter.com/rektcapital) [@rektcapital](https://twitter.com/rektcapital) [![Twitter Logo](https://paragraph.xyz/editor/twitter/logo.png)](https://twitter.com/rektcapital/status/1749805891225026618) [#BTC](https://twitter.com/hashtag/BTC) History repeats once again Bitcoin tends to retrace approx. 100 days before the Halving and this time is no different $BTC [#Crypto](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Crypto) [#Bitcoin](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bitcoin) ![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GEiPKFVacAAs9nS.jpg) [![Like Icon](https://paragraph.xyz/editor/twitter/heart.png) 1,732](https://twitter.com/rektcapital/status/1749805891225026618)[ 20:16 • 23 Jan 2024 ](https://twitter.com/rektcapital/status/1749805891225026618) Also historically, when Bitcoin has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and failed to break through it, it dropped 30%.  $BTC has reached these levels once again recently and got rejected. It is down 20% since that rejection, so there’s some downside left to go potentially.  [![User Avatar](https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1172355994833293313/fPBQqeCd_normal.jpg)](https://twitter.com/nestayxbt) [nestay](https://twitter.com/nestayxbt) [@nestayxbt](https://twitter.com/nestayxbt) [![Twitter Logo](https://paragraph.xyz/editor/twitter/logo.png)](https://twitter.com/nestayxbt/status/1742864527706730839) $BTC's last golden (61.8) rejections resulted in a -30% drop. Are you prepared? ![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GC_lmkFXkAATf1J.jpg) [![Like Icon](https://paragraph.xyz/editor/twitter/heart.png) 460](https://twitter.com/nestayxbt/status/1742864527706730839)[ 16:34 • 4 Jan 2024 ](https://twitter.com/nestayxbt/status/1742864527706730839) So all in all, a pre-halving Bitcoin dump is normal and expected.  **Wrapping Up — What Should You Do?** 💰 ---------------------------------------- **First up,** the FTX sell pressure on the ETFs is now gone. This should make inflows much easier moving forward.  [![User Avatar](https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1609880669080911876/7TxtWTSb_normal.jpg)](https://twitter.com/alistairmilne) [Alistair Milne](https://twitter.com/alistairmilne) [@alistairmilne](https://twitter.com/alistairmilne) [![Twitter Logo](https://paragraph.xyz/editor/twitter/logo.png)](https://twitter.com/alistairmilne/status/1749457799896047874) FTX was apparently >1/3rd of GBTC's outflows before today. That sell pressure has now gone Makes net inflows far easier going forward... ![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GEdSICGW0AAZnEQ.png) [![Like Icon](https://paragraph.xyz/editor/twitter/heart.png) 876](https://twitter.com/alistairmilne/status/1749457799896047874)[ 21:13 • 22 Jan 2024 ](https://twitter.com/alistairmilne/status/1749457799896047874) **Secondly,** this pull-back was common in the past and it was expected. Totally healthy and nothing has changed fundamentally. We’re still looking bullish. **Thirdly,** the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are both at all time highs – this indicates that there’s a good momentum for risk assets.  Once we get through the forced selling then it's likely we have a big push upwards again. [![User Avatar](https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1631723279676317709/-fjgaR2p_normal.jpg)](https://twitter.com/business) [Bloomberg](https://twitter.com/business) [@business](https://twitter.com/business) [![Twitter Logo](https://paragraph.xyz/editor/twitter/logo.png)](https://twitter.com/business/status/1748410415036441032) BREAKING: S&P 500 hits all-time high in historical bull run [trib.al/i1f2aXz](https://t.co/ZjW63OJGLu) ![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GEOaAfsXAAAS81C.png) [![Like Icon](https://paragraph.xyz/editor/twitter/heart.png) 682](https://twitter.com/business/status/1748410415036441032)[ 23:51 • 19 Jan 2024 ](https://twitter.com/business/status/1748410415036441032) So friends, at this point in the cycle **dips are for buying!** 2024 is looking like a very bullish year for all markets.  If you can get coins for cheap, you shouldn’t pass on that opportunity.  **BUY THE DIP!**  I actually shared this exact message with our PRO members in Discord on Monday. In that, I also shared my views on $ETH and $SOL. Check it out. 👇 ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/4af2e4b6620a94f18f101c17c8d436fd.png) If you’d like to get my strategies and TA in real time, then I’d love to welcome you in our PRO-only Discord channel.  To join, you need to: 1. [Upgrade your membership to PRO](https://w3academy.io/offer/sign-up-for-pro/) 2. Grab your PRO Pass (claiming details will be available after you go PRO) 3. Connect your PRO Pass in our Discord It’s that easy, and you get to capitalize on the best opportunities that this bull market will have to offer. Together, we won’t FUCK this up. Let’s get it fam. 🚀 * * * Thanks for reading. And remember, you're strong, you’re powerful, you’re alpha! ❤ ### **How'd you feel about our read today?** * ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ [Loved it!](https://bit.ly/five_star_feedback) * ⭐⭐⭐ [Decent!](https://bit.ly/three_stars_feedback) * ⭐ [Kyle, step it up!](https://bit.ly/one_star_feedback) * * * ### **Are You Fairly New to Crypto & Web3?** Let us help you wrap your head around this industry that’s constantly transforming. Take our Free 1-hour Web3 Rabbit Hole Course to learn the foundational components you need to start building and investing successfully. [Take Free Rabbit Hole Course Now](https://bit.ly/web3academy_rabbithole_nl) * * * ### **Recommended Tools** 🛠 * Secure Your Crypto w/ a Hardware Wallet – [Get a Ledger Today](https://shop.ledger.com/?r=0983ea885998) * * * [_Join us on Discord_](https://w3academy.io/web3-academy-membership/) | [_Follow us on Twitter_](https://twitter.com/web3academy_) [_Advertise with Web3 Academy_](https://forms.gle/sJQ74htKuPU2qJHo6) _Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions or taking any action based on the content._ --- *Originally published on [Web3 Academy](https://paragraph.com/@web3academy/3-reasons-why-crypto-is-falling)*