# No doubt this 

By [xxcvb](https://paragraph.com/@xianqi) · 2022-07-21

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No doubt this is a big "if," hinged largely on [inflation](https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/13/economy/cpi-inflation-june/index.html) steadily receding from June's 40-year high. But it should. [Oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO/) and [gasoline](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW/) prices are falling quickly as the worst of the commodity market fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine appears to be behind us. Meanwhile, the pandemic continues to fade, allowing global [supply chains](https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/overview) to iron themselves out, which will ease shortages for everything from [lumber](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/lbs) to [vehicles](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MVAAUTLTTS). Potential workers sidelined by the virus are also slowly getting back on the [job](https://www.bls.gov/cps/effects-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic.htm), taking the edge off rising labor costs.

Most encouraging, [inflation expectations](https://www.ice.com/iba/usd-inflation-indexes) — what consumers, businesses and investors think inflation will be in the future — have significantly receded since jumping in the wake of the Russian invasion. Chalk this up to the Fed's aggressive actions. Expectations are typically self-fulfilling, and with [inflation](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220316a.htm) expectations back to the [Fed's target](https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/16/economy/interest-rates-inflation-federal-reserve/index.html) of 2%, it is a good bet that actual inflation will head quickly in the same direction.

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*Originally published on [xxcvb](https://paragraph.com/@xianqi/no-doubt-this)*