Our current supply is ~730M.
Our current Circulating Market Cap is 3.7M.

https://twitter.com/VelodromeAlerts/status/1606077229242454018?s=20&t=E2CUamH5abrzZDGyBGESyw

The Velodrome Races are an attempt to maintain, or increase the % of marketcap owned by each participant in the face of 2.5x more supply.

Whatever veVELO you are holding right now, you need 2.5x more of it, and you are better off accumulating during the Tour de OP and immediately afterward -- which means, within the next year.

If you are able to 2.5x your holdings to keep up with dilution, and if you are able to time your unlock for the right span of months, you can assume your current holdings to be at about ~10M Circulating FDV.

This is because the Market Cap being reported above is a reflection of the current supply of VELO on the market -- a number which is increasing aggressively each epoch.

.:.

VELO accumulation is only competitively possible through veVELO locking.

• Weekly Bribes

• Weekly DCA to ensure a minimum of 10k veVELO per Epoch for remainder of Tour de OP.

• Weekly OP Rebate

.:.

[Comparative Eval:]

If you accumulated these DEX tokens in their early stages, you could probably sell them at these market caps:

Note: These numbers are Market Cap for Circulating Supply -- Of which, VELO is likely to have +70% locked in veVELO at its ATH | Max Supply.

• $UNI~~ - $10B []~~

  • UNI is a higher class token in status, though not functionality.

• $CAKE~~ - $3B~~

  • CAKE probably is synonomous with the Dominance of the BNB Ecosystem.

• $RUNE~~ = $2B~~

  • RUNE has this inter-chain edge for non EVM chains.

• $OSMO~~ - $2B~~

  • OSMO is its own appchain, within a network of chains, and is used as a liquidity source between them.

• $SUSHI~~ = $1.5B~~

  • SUSHI is a problem child. They are the example of how to eat your runway, and your customers value, while overpaying yourself on an inflationary token.

• $CRV - $1B

  • CRV is the closest to VELO, because of the veCRV dynamics. Though, CRV is dominant for depth of liquidity.

• $1INCH~~ - $500M~~

  • Aggregator

• $RAY - $250M

  • RAY was a main solana dex - but idk if these numbers are solid, cause SOL ecosystem was pumped up by scammers.

• $BAL - $200M

  • BAL is neat, cause they also have veBAL, and there are index pools. VELO 2.0 will also have these.

• $JOE - $200M

  • JOE was the flagship DEX for the AVAX Ecosystem. Technically AVAX ecosystem was also pumped up by scammers.

• $DODO - $200M

  • First time I used Dodo was on arbitrum -- idk.

• $QUICK - $100M

  • QUICK was flagship DEX for MATIC Ecosystem.

• $BOO - $100M

  • Flagship DEX for FTM.

• $PNG~~ - $50M~~

  • Bullshit TIer 2 DEX for AVAX.

I would place VELO Circulating Market Cap “Take Profit Zone” between 100M and 250M.

I will be looking for those numbers to occur between April ‘25 and Dec ‘25.

.:.

The low end, here, assumes that most of what we saw in the last cycle can be replicated for comparable project | ecosystem pairs.

Here are some additional bull cases, which may increase these projections:

• Institutional Adoption

  • All it would take is one or two Institutions to Adopt using OP DeFi as core infrastructure for their banks, before the next cycle, and we could see multiples more FDV.

  • SNX itself could make this happen, as it’s next iteration is much closer to OSMO in functionality as an inter-chain liquidity pool.

    • Robinhood, for example, uses SNX liquidity pools as an intermediary for their trades.

    • SNX ecosystem’s primary source for $SNX | $KWENTA | $LYRA | $THALES trading volume is Velodrome.

    • VELO trade volume and FDV goes up.

• The L2 Thesis

  • The marketcaps that promise the most comparison are all the primary DEXs of Alt L1s in the last cycle.

  • The L2 Thesis is that Security and Tx Volume are better on L2s.

    • If this is true, then, perhaps the valuation for the OP ecosystem as a whole is greater than the valuation of AVAX at its previous status.

    • A rising tide lifts VELO FDV.

• The Liquidity Pool Co-operative

  • An interesting point to note, is what SUSHI is currently dealing with -- where they are about to assassinate the core value prop of their token holders by diverting fees away from xSUSHI stakers.

  • Velodrome as a system, is designed to solve this problem, as well as the inflationary rewards problem which is pushing SUSHI to try and pivot in this way.

    • The main question of the Velodrome Tokenomics, is that -- we know what the end of SUSHI looks like. We can only guess right now what the end of VELO looks like.

      • IMO -- A POL LP Co-Op for OP DeFi.

  • The End Case for veVELO holders, is Protocol owned Liquidity, where the Protocols themselves own the veVELO, and redirect fees back to their treasuries.

    • VELO gets to build itself a perpetual operating path within this, by perma-locking its own allocation.

    • Bribes on top of this -- are a market driven incentive to bridge the gap between the yield that can be attained elsewhere, and the incentives for supporting that LP Pool.

      • It may be that this core structural principle of diversifying ownership of veVELO from inception creates a more resilient long term environment for LP services on Optimism.

  • SNX Ecosystem Adoption could lead to Integrations:

    • SNX Teleporters allows 1inch and Curve to make trades with sUSD as an intermediary, and is able to undercut the market.

    • It also makes those exchanges cross-chain.

      • a SNX integration into Velodrome could make it cross chain.

The Bull case for VELO beyond 100M to 250M Circulating MC is dependent on the success of OP and SNX as ecosystems | utilities which cause VELO to out perform comparative “Tier 1 Native DEX” category for Alt L1s last cycle.

As for a Psychological High point, I could put that between 1B and 2B.

That leaves room for upside beyond the 100M to 250M FDV “upper band foundation”, but below previous upper bands for those examples.

• SUSHI is ubiquitous on all EVM as a Brand.

• OSMO as the Tier 1 LP Service for all of IBC.

• CRV as the Tier 1 Deep Liquidity exchange.

Meaning if you were a trader, the previous MC for these tokens may be an upper level of resistance.

TP:

Using this information, we can speculate on the approximate price of VELO when it reaches these ranges in FDV, at full Dilution. -- assuming you also maintain proportional size of your bag, as the supply increases, and assuming that the veVELO is unlocked at a time for you to TP.

• 100M [10x current price.]

• 250M [25x current price.]

• 500M [50x current price.]

• 1B [100x current price.]

Conclusion:

• Accumulate 2.5x your current veVELO holdings, as soon as possible.

• Unlock at a spectrum between April ‘25 and Dec ‘25

• Once you have reached 2.5x your current target, farm the remainder of your bribes into $LINK | $SNX.

Liquidity Depth is financial bandwidth for DeFi Protocols. LP Incentivization is an operating cost for DeFi, and veVELO leaderboard protocols are seeking efficiency.

Velodrome is an $OP DeFi Protocol owned, LP - Cooperative.

Target Owners:

• Protocol Treasuries seeking to indefinitely farm their own Protocol Owned Liquidity.

• Protocols compound accumulating veVELO on max lock, to govern which pools benefit most from dilution.

  • SNX | [THALES | LYRA | KWENTA] LPs

    • An example of a block of protocols on the veVELO Leaderboard.

  • VELO LPs

  • OP LPs | [wETH and public goods stables.]

  • ~77% of supply is locked for an AVG. of 3.7 years.

  • This ratio adjusts weekly along a deterministic inflation curve.

Enlistment of Co-Op Members is accomplished through a series of subsidies:

[The Bait -- Epoch 1 to 60]:

• The Tour de OP incentivizes Protocols to build positions aggressively over the next 8 months by offering $OP Rebates & Bribe Matches.

  • Ends ~Epoch 60, August ‘23 -- Beginning the veRebase Decline.

[The Hook -- Epoch 60 to 110]:

• During the Lock-In Period, the protocols who built a position using $OP Subsidies and Bribe Matches, will compete to carry the burden absorbing dilution, so they do not lose the advantage gained in the first Subsidy.

• May also be PvP Bribe capture.

  • Ends ~Epoch 110, April ‘24 -- Beginning of Tapered Inflation Rate.

[Hype -- Epoch 110 to 200]:

• The BTC Halving is around ~March ‘24, theorizes a new bull cycle. The final subsidy is in the pumping of $VELO price as the Total Supply tapers toward flat.

• Bribes are also inflated in value.

  • [good to incentivize exit liquidity.]

    • When Inflation approaches Total Supply, the price of VELO ought to be within the upper range of ATH.

[POL Fees Subsidy -- Epoch 200+]:

• The highest periods of fee generating trade volume, when LPs most need to be incentivized are the first cascading liquidations of the next bear market. Those fees can go toward protocols whose treasury management understands how to hedge LP.

.:.

[Tokenomics]:

The $VELO Emission Curve is a weekly token accrual game between OP DeFi Protocols, in order to see which pools will facilitate the next bear market.

The VELO Team has max-locked its entire Team Allocation, and is living off of the bribes and subsidies.

https://twitter.com/taowatts/status/1605061422446252032?s=20&t=RJfDkrXjMdKej-d4-NcrQw

.:.

[Conclusions:]

• Approximately 77% of Circulating Supply is locked for 3.7 years, and incentives are designed to maximize competition to maintain or increase this ratio and extended lock rate until after Epoch 110.

• Volatile LPs will likely start to become profitable Epoch 110 [April ‘24]

• ATH for VELO will likely occur between Epoch 150 [March ‘25] & Epoch 190 [Dec ‘25].

  • ~23% of the supply available on the market.

  • $VELO is the high beta LP Co-Operative owned by the $OP DeFi Index.

    • [veVELO Leaderboard]

• The Winners of the veVELO Leaderboard will be be the Treasuries and Market Makers of the $OP DeFi Index.

.:.

[Minimize Dilution Thesis:]

The game played is about competing for a percentage of ownership of the cooperative, while also trading a macro $OP DeFi Index.

Any action which leads toward a greater capture of the $VELO inflation curve or the $OP DeFi Index is a winning action. Such as building a protocol on $SNX Liquidity, or $VELO Liquidity.

[Bribe Farmer Thesis:]

Building a $veVELO position, and dumping bribes to build $LINK | $SNX collateral.

$veVELO Risk Continuum

[Minimize Dilution] ------------------------------------------------------ [Bribe Farmer]