Today we’re launching a mini-app on Base and Farcaster with a streamlined music prediction market. Find a song you love, put money behind it, and earn when you successfully predict what music others will enjoy.

Try out the Farcaster mini-app here: https://farcaster.xyz/miniapps/zXYaoCayS33P/piki

Piki’s music prediction market: how does it work?

At the heart of Piki is a simple music discovery tool. Swipe through different songs and tap “dislike,” “like,” or “superlike” to curate your music taste.

When you find a song you think others will love, you can bet on it.

After your prediction, we’ll show that song to 10 more users in their discovery feed. If at least 7 of them “like it” you get paid in stablecoins.

1. Listen and rate - Swipe through songs and choose what you like.

2. See the odds - Every song has a fair price based on 6 million previous ratings.

3. Make your prediction - If you "go long" and more than 6 out of the next 10 people like the song, you win. "Go short" and 4 of the next 10 listeners dislike the song, and you'll win (these odds change depending on previous song ratings).

Get paid - Your winnings are paid in stablecoins to your wallet.

The prediction mechanism

Unlike a traditional prediction market like Polymarket or Kalshi, we can’t resolve the answer with a “yes” or “no” event. There’s no objective answer for great music!

Instead, we use historical data to set the odds, and user activity to resolve the market.

1. How we set odds - we analyse the historical data (6m+ likes, dislikes, and superlikes) on each song to determine fair value odds for how future users are likely to vote.

2. How we resolve markets - After you make your prediction, we show the song to 10 users in their discovery feed. The odds are clearly shown in the app, and you’ll win if a certain number of those ten people like the track (or dislike it, if you're short).

Monetize your music taste

Music curation has always been a driving force of music culture. In the past we made mixtapes, wrote zines, and started music blogs. Music curators with great taste helped build scenes and play a huge role in launching new bands into their careers.

Even now, music curators and influencers are playing a huge role in breaking new artists by sharing music on Instagram, selecting music for their content and showing off our vinyl collection on TikTok.

But there’s never been a good way for any of these music curators to monetise their music taste directly. No reward for being early and understanding great music taste.

Piki is a small step in changing that. If you can consistently predict music taste and trends, you can earn stablecoins.

Try Piki now!

Piki-mini is now live on the Base App and Farcaster. Try it out here https://farcaster.xyz/miniapps/zXYaoCayS33P/piki