However, the recent four-year bull and bear cycle from 2017 to 2021 hasn't satisfied many:

Bitcoin rose from a low of $3100 at the end of 2018 and early 2019 to a peak of $69000, representing only about a 22x increase (an impossible perfect timing to buy the dip and sell the pump), and compared to the previous bull market peak, it's only about a 3.5x increase (from $19500 to $69000). For many long-term hodlers over four years, this increase isn't satisfactory.

Looking back at the Bitcoin price chart since the first halving in 2012, we can observe certain characteristics in price points during each cycle:

Following the halving in November 2012, Bitcoin peaked on:

April 10, 2013 - $259, from a low of $10, an increase of 26x

November 30, 2013 - $1163, from a low of $75, an increase of 15x

December 17, 2017 - $19500, from a low of $150, an increase of 130x

April 14, 2021 - $65000, from a low of $3122, an increase of 20x

November 10, 2021 - $69000, from a low of $3122, an increase of 22x

Q4 2025 - ????

Additionally, Bitcoin's peaks correlate strongly with policies:

On December 5, 2013, five Chinese government agencies issued a notice about preventing Bitcoin risks, which didn't recognize Bitcoin as a legal currency and explicitly prohibited financial and payment institutions from engaging in Bitcoin-related businesses. This occurred just 5 days before the peak.

On April 14, 2021, Coinbase went IPO on Nasdaq.

On October 19, 2021, the SEC approved a Bitcoin futures ETF, 20 days before the peak.

This indicates that price surges are often driven by anticipation and fall when reality sets in. It also suggests that there are large-scale speculators waiting to dump Bitcoin after driving up prices in anticipation of events like Coinbase IPO.

Of course, policy and peaks aren't always strongly correlated. For example, the Chinese policy in 2017 didn't prevent prices from continuing to rise.

This suggests that the influence of Chinese policies on Bitcoin prices is decreasing. Since the crackdown on mining in May 2021, Chinese policies are less likely to affect Bitcoin prices, mainly because Bitcoin is resilient. Knock it down, it gets back up again.

This cycle, the known bull factors are the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs and several crypto companies preparing to IPO, such as Circle (USDC) and Consensys (Metamask+Linea). The SEC already approved spot ETFs before gradually approving IPOs of various companies.

Therefore, the listing of ETFs could be the start of a long-term bull market, considering that Bitcoin trading is now legal in the US. Any policies from the Chinese-speaking world are less likely to sway the market as before.

In summary, this cycle is likely to have one ferocious bull peak instead of the double peaks seen in 2021.

The cyclical pattern seems to be shifting towards a longer 8-year cycle of single and double peaks rather than a simple 4-year halving cycle. The reason for this shift is yet to be observed, but it's evident that a new cycle of single peak bull market is imminent.

If we analyze in 8-year cycles, this cycle should be more akin to the 2013-2017 cycle rather than 2017-2021. Thus, the significant event during 2017-2021, like the 312 event, became a critical bottoming point.

The likelihood of another super black swan event like 312 is extremely low this time around. The price chart of this cycle is more likely to resemble the rounded bottom of 2014-2017 rather than a jagged bottom with a sharp peak. Therefore, waiting for a super bottom like 312 to buy low and hold until 2025 will likely result in missing out.

Compared to the 19500 peak in 2017, the peak in 2025 will likely exceed everyone's expectations, given Bitcoin's extremely strong cyclical nature.

After all, Bitcoin is a financial entity with very strong cyclicality.

In Bitcoin, We trust!

SATX Labs

See u all in 2025 Q4