We're told about new ways our system will work, the stuff that just traces another thing, to buy this and that, not the real thing. Almost nothing at all.

We're being held back, without power or violence involved. We chose this ourselves, nobody told us to. It's easy, just like that, the game could've changed, isn't that what we wanted all along?

It's in my hand, choose what I want, I'm caught up in the waves beneath the concrete.

Money is freedom, Bitcoin is the currency of it.

Not all money is free.

It's not in my control, but it will be. I know nothing, just enough of ourselves, to be certain of that statement.

A wave is flowing beneath our feet. The concrete as steady as ever, nobody hears, everyone is too caught up with the wind.

The US governmental debt has nearly doubled as a share of GDP since 2007 from 64% to 124%. The S&P500 Shiller CAPE ratio, measuring the S&P 500's cyclic adjustment of price-to-earnings ratio, sits at around 40. After such a peak, stock prices tend to decline, for instance, in 1999 it reached an all time high of 44, right before the dot-com bubble burst.

Moreover the Buffet Indicator (total market cap of US stocks/GDP) hit an unprecedented 220%. In comparison, it hit 159% in Q1 of 2000 (dot-com bubble), and 118% in pre-2008 markets.

The probability of a recession within the next 12 months ranges from 19% (NY Fed model) to 40% (JPMorgan), whilst the probability for a 20%+ market decline sits at around 25-35%.

The financial crisis in 2008 was primarily a failure resulting out of excessive credits. In spite of the crash, the problem remained unresolved and migrated from national banks to non-bank financial intermediary companies, which controll around $63T in financial assets (51% of global financial assets). Moreover, private credit, one of the main pre-2008 risks, has grown immensly since 2007 and reaches around $3T (approx. $1.3T in US), projecting to hit $5T by 2029. Public business development companies recieve an avg. of 8% of investment income via PIK (Payment-in-kind, allowing to pay interest in further debt), private household debt reached $18.5T & national debt stands at approx. $35.5T, with a federal debt-to-GDP of 122-124% (nearly double than 2007's 64%, highest since World War II).

Bloomberg Longview Economics found that 10.4% of S&P 1500 companies have been unable to cover interest payments with EBIT between 2022-2024, which is the highest rate since 2004.

Global OTC derivatives notional value surged to $846 trillion as of June 2025, up 16% year-over-year — the largest annual increase since 2008. Gross market value rose 29%, the largest jump since 2022. Meanwhile, US state and local pension funds carry an official unfunded liability of $1.3–1.5 trillion, though Stanford’s Joshua Rauh estimates the true figure, using marketvalue discount rates, could be $5–6T. These pension funds have increasingly chased returns in riskier assets — private equity, hedge funds, real estate — creating additional channels for systemic contagion during a downturn.

On the other side, market breadth is improving — 65.8% of S&P 500 stocks trade above their 200-day moving average, and the equal-weight S&P 500 has outperformed the cap-weighted index year-to-date (+3.16%, against 1.54%), signaling a rotation from mega-cap tech into broader sectors.

The yield curve has un-inverted (2s10s spread at +0.59%), which is consistent with recession timing (historically, recessions begin 6–18 months after un-inversion, not during inversion). The un-inversion occurred in late 2024, placing the risk window squarely in mid-2025 through mid-2026.

In the time the US stock market surged, Bitcoin has fallen 47% from its all time high in Oct 25, while gold has had a bull run to over $5k.

What about Bitcoin in times of crisis?

In March 2026 Bitcoin traded at approx. $70,242, which is 47% below it's all time high of $126,296 (Oct. 6th 2025). The total crypto market cap has since contracted to roughly $2.4T, Bitcoin dominates at ~58%, and the Fear & Greed Index has plunged to around 13-17.

Meanwhile, gold surged past $5k per ounce - up roughly 80% year-over-year. The divergence between them two is stark and critics are noting Bitcoin's inability to hold against equity sell off.

Still, what can we notice about Bitcoin prices historically?

During the March 2020 COVID crash, Bitcoin plummeted 50% in 24h (from $7,960 to $3,860). In the 2022 bear market it declined 77% from $69k to below $20k.

However, there are numbers interfering with the narrative:

Within the 2023 banking crisis Bitcoin surged 35% in 10 days ($19,600 to $28,474), outperforming 97% of S&P 500 companies in Q1 2023, which suggests it functioning as a crisis hedge specifically during banking and trust crises, where its decentralized, cencorship-resistant properties provide genuine differentiated value, even if it may still fail in times of tariff driven selloffs, rate hikes or geopolitical events.

Institutional adoption:

Regardless of Bitcoin's hedging properties, it's institutional foundation has fundamentally altered over the last couple years. US spot Bitcoin ETFs hold around $125-137B (roughly 7% of total BTC supply), with BlackRock's IBIT making up roughly 60% of the market share at $60-68B. Cumulative crypto ETF trading volume surpassed $2T by January 2026. Major Banks, for instance the Bank of America, JPMorgan and Vanguard, are opening Bitcoin ETF distribution to wealth management clients. An estimate of 86% of institutional investors either hold Bitcoin or plan to allocate capital in digital assets.

Moreover, Corporate and sovereign adoption has accelerated drastically. Strategy (former MicroStrategy) holds 738,731 BTC (worth ~$52B), and on March 6th, 2025 Trump signed an executive order, establishing a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve capitalized with approx. 328,372 seized/forfeited Bitcoin.

In the meantime, El Salvador continues adding to its 6,102 BTC position, the Czech National Bank is considering a 5% reserve allocation, and Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund is exploring Bitcoin diversification.

Why Bitcoin will still matter long-term:

The thesis that Bitcoin could absorb capital flight from traditional markets during a systemic crisis faces three fundamental obstacles.

First - scale: Bitcoin’s $1.3 trillion market cap versus roughly $100 trillion in global equities means it simply cannot absorb meaningful institutional-scale flows during a panic.

Second - behavior: the 30-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has risen to 0.55 (from 0.15 in 2021), reaching 0.90 during the May–June 2025 Middle East tensions, meaning Bitcoin increasingly moves in lockstep with equities during precisely the moments a safe haven should diverge.

Third - leverage: the October 2025 crash triggered $19 billion in forced crypto liquidations, demonstrating that crypto’s internal leverage ecosystem amplifies rather than absorbs crash dynamics.

The longer-term picture is more nuanced:   Over rolling four-year periods, Bitcoin has outperformed every major asset class. The Bitcoin halving cycle (most recently April 2024) continues to exhibit its historical pattern, with the October 2025 all time high occurring approximately 18 months post-halving, consistent with prior cycles. If the four-year pattern holds, the current drawdown may represent the declining phase of the cycle, with some models projecting a bottom near $35,000 in late 2026, before the next accumulation phase begins.

Analyst forecasts for 2026 range from Standard Chartered’s $50,000 bear case to Fundstrat’s Tom Lee at $200–250,000, an extraordinarily wide distribution reflecting deep uncertainty.

ARK Invest projects Bitcoin reaching $300,000–$1.5 million by 2030 under various scenarios, while Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer sees $1 million using Metcalfe’s Law.

If sovereign adoption accelerates and Bitcoin captures even a small share of gold’s $20 trillion market, these figures become plausible in a longer time frame. But as a tool for navigating a 2026–2027 financial crisis in real time, the evidence strongly suggests Bitcoin will behave as a high-beta risk asset, falling faster than equities in the initial downturn and recovering faster in the aftermath, rather than serving as a contemporaneous hedge.

The probability math: how likely is a crash, and what could trigger it?

Multiple quantitative frameworks point to elevated but not extreme near-term risk, with the probability of a meaningful market disruption significantly above historical baseline rates. The NY Fed’s yield curve model assigns a 18.8% probability to recession within the next 12 months. Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month recession probability to 25% on March 12, 2026 (from 20% in January).

The Minsky cycle analysis places the US economy in the late speculative finance phase, approaching Ponzi finance. Total US debt across all sectors has reached approximately $103 trillion against $27 trillion in GDP, a ratio of 3.8x. The OFR has modeled “Technology Shocks and Predictable Minsky Cycles,” noting that positive technology news fuels credit expansion followed by a bust when the technology’s reallocation effects force deleveraging, a pattern that maps directly onto the current AI investment cycle. The BIS credit-to-GDP gap, its primary early warning indicator for banking crises, shows US total credit growth has substantially outpaced GDP growth, though the gap narrowed somewhat in 2025.

The most dangerous scenario, and the one for which markets appear least prepared, is a sustained Strait of Hormuz closure pushing oil above $110, coinciding with AI disappointments and a margin call cascade. The current environment is historically unusual in combining near-record valuations, an active geopolitical war affecting energy supply, aggressive trade protectionism, record margin debt, and extreme market concentration. The closest historical parallel is a hybrid of 1973–74 (oil shock plus stagflation, which produced a 48% market decline) and 2000 (extreme tech-driven valuations).

For Bitcoin and crypto, the next decade will determine whether digital assets mature into a genuine component of the global financial architecture or remain a speculative asset class with limited hedging utility. The institutional infrastructure is already in place — ETFs, sovereign reserves, bank distribution, regulatory frameworks. If Bitcoin captures even 5% of gold’s market capitalization over the next decade, it would represent a $1 trillion addition to demand. The GENIUS Act, signed in July 2025, enabling banks and credit unions to issue stablecoins, may prove more consequential than Bitcoin itself for crypto’s systemic importance — stablecoin on-chain volume reached $12 trillion in 2025, approaching Visa’s $14 trillion.

Conclusion: a system primed for disruption, not destined for collapse

The financial system of March 2026 is not a replica of 2008, but it carries its own distinctive and arguably more complex set of vulnerabilities. The fundamental lesson of 2008, that leverage and opacity create systemic fragility, went only partially learned. Risk migrated from regulated banks to $63T in shadow banking, $3T in private credit, and $846T in derivatives, while government debt nearly doubled as a share of GDP. The valuation extremes captured by the Shiller CAPE (~40), Buffett Indicator (220%), and record margin debt ($1.28T) describe a market priced for perfection during a period of active geopolitical conflict, trade disruption, and labor market deterioration.

GitHub - balgar271/Shamir-Secret-Sharing-Seed-Phrase-Encoding-Tool

Contribute to balgar271/Shamir-Secret-Sharing-Seed-Phrase-Encoding-Tool development by creating an account on GitHub.

https://github.com

It consists of:

1. A general-purpose encoding/decoding tool for any text secret:

• Split any text into n shares with a configurable threshold k

• Combine k or more shares to reconstruct the original

• Supports up to 255 shares (GF(256) field limit)

• Hex-encoded shares with one-click copy

  
  

2. The SSS BIP-39 Seed Phrase Encoding Tool

• a purpose-built tool for protecting BIP-39 cryptocurrency wallet seed phrases.

• BIP-39 validation: checks word count (12/15/18/21/24) and format

• offline: live network status banner warns if you’re online

• masked input: seed phrase hidden by default with show/hide toggle

• a step-by-step flow: enter → configure → generate

• Download shares: export all shares as a .txt file

• Viewport toggle: switch between mobile and desktop layouts to preview responsiveness -> Uses crypto.getRandomValues() for cryptographically secure randomness

How it works:

Shamir’s Secret Sharing splits a secret into n pieces such that any k pieces can reconstruct it, but k − 1 or fewer reveal absolutely nothing about the original.

The scheme works by:

1. Treating each byte of the secret as a constant term of a random polynomial of degree k − 1

2. Evaluating that polynomial at n distinct points over the finite field GF(256)

3. Each evaluation point becomes a share

4. Reconstruction uses Lagrange interpolation at x = 0 to recover the constant term All arithmetic is performed in GF(2⁸) using the irreducible polynomial x⁸ + x⁴ + x³ + x + 1 (0x11b), which ensures every non-zero element has a multiplicative inverse.

Transfer: Alice → Bob

What happens? Alice’s wallet constructs a transaction spending her UTXO. She signs it with her private key, broadcasts it to the Bitcoin P2P network, and a miner includes it in a block. Bob’s node sees the confirmation. Within 25 bytes of locking script the transaction is then complete and the amount is creditet to Bob's wallet.

OP_DUP OP_HASH160 <bob's pubkey hash> OP_EQUALVERIFY OP_CHECKSIG

However, Alice may do some things different: This is more her way of doing things nowadays.

She opens her digital wallet app, which she doesn’t hold the keys to — Steve does. Therefore, she doesn't need to run a node — Steve also does this.

Alice innitialises the transaction to Bob's wallet, Steve then constructs and broadcasts the transaction within the network. On the other end, Bob doesn’t need to validate anything either. Steve's App tells him whenever the transaction arrives. So Steve built a wallet on Alice's and Bob's trust, Alice's transaction and it's arrival at Bobs wallet adress, proof it to work.

The cryptographic proof that makes Bitcoin Bitcoin — the part where you don’t have to trust another party — is missing, a proof of work only transmitted by Steve.

Alice and Bob didn't even have to know Steve, nor eachother.

Alice → Steve's wallet app → Steve's wallet app's node → mining pool → block → Steve's wallet app's node → Steve's wallet app → Bob

The transaction was technically valid. It obeyed every consensus rule. It paid the fee. It will persist in the UTXO set until spent. By every protocol-level measure, it was a real Bitcoin transaction. But by the measure that actually matters in P2P cash system transactions (two parties transacting without a trusted third party) it failed.

Alice doing thing's differently nowadays is quite possible given the median Bitcoin experience in 2026. There are 1.26 million BTC sitting in ETF cold storage. 194 public companies holding bitcoin on balance sheets. Exchanges custodying the vast majority of retail coins.

The protocol is peer-to-peer. The product is client-server.

Even if the tools for real P2P usage are better than ever: Sparrow Wallet builds transactions locally. Lightning settles in two seconds for a fraction of a cent. Running bitcoind on a Raspberry Pi costs less than a month of Spotify.

The exit from custodial dependency is always available. Alice could hold her own keys, run her own node, and send directly to Bob’s address without any corp. in the middle.

Still, she chose trust over work. Maybe as it's easier, maybe because of it's effortlessness.

And, maybe we then need to build on self-custody again.

Few years later I got occupied with my mind, the self, all I am, all we are, all there is.

In high school I first came in contact with the concept of blockchain & web3. Didn't think much of it though, however, after the following time was primarily used to study philosophy at uni and getting into web building and python, my fascination for bitcoin suddenly brought me back to all of this…

Since I can imagine, I wanted to somehow merge my fascination with ontologic philosophy, the psychological mind, but also technology, cryptographic encoding, bitcoin and finances.

It all still seems quite far bridged, a bit out of frame. However, it's somehow merging together, maybe not in the most proficient ways. I think integration of self, of me and you, of us, into the digital realm, into the artificially intelligent, into the crypyographic, the financially monetized,...,has already impacted ourselves so deeply in terms of usage, utilization, building and deployments. We can create what will be, we can realize ourzelves somewhere totally new • all these incredible territories of unknown self implementations…

framework: 0xself (₿SLF) 

0xself in it's own term equals 0 
→ it's no self, no entity, no mind;
nothing streaming into any realm, not physical, cognitive, digital, cryptographic…
Still, self, is all there is [my-self/your-self/our-self/…].
All self is everything the world is, all you got, all we are. As we become, mind's streaming into everything and turns into all self there truly is present.
With 0xself you hold a part of this self, maybe anybody's, maybe yours, maybe somebody else's, humanity's,...(or simply something, which will always result in anything).

a part of mindstreamed self in blockchained form. 
→ a contract for self (self = something, which is anything). 
→ a proof of mindstream (mindstream = streamed mind as any x self).
[→ resulting in 0xself equaling anything of self, through somethingo of mind. ]


[mindstream]by.balgar 
// [→ balgar.btc balgar.ord 0xbalgar.eth mindstream.base.eth]

Once again, I find myself seeing all there is around me more vividly through my phone's camera, than within the lost memory of what my eyes just glanced at; visualizing the incongruence of this momentarity.

-> a one second long video can seem so incredibly long, if put on another person's screen and played in a loop.

-> a moment can shrink to such shortness, if investment in capturing the fleeting light of passing days on glowing screens, overpowers experiencing itself.

//

[Sometimes I take a look at the circular clock in my parents' hallway, asking myself, if there is any or all space contained between a second after, and one right before, the small rotating arrow's current position…

Maybe I wouldn't think about capturing the present if I could move forward in time, whilst still returning to the exact same places of past's former times...or maybe the arrow just tries to escape from such burden.]

interpersonal is based on collective, interferring the personal, overshadowing the individual point of view.

the modernized a place, in which god isn't based an ethical morality, but money.

a society of collective being overshadowed by individual means is inevitably established.