A UTXO is in profit if the current price is higher than the price at the time it was created. Conversely, a UTXO is in loss if the current price is lower than the price at the time it was created.

Percent UTXOs in Profit highlights the percentage of the total set of UTXOs which are currently in profit. In general, higher values may suggest market tops, while lower values may signal bottoms. However, Percent Supply in Profit and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) can often provide a clearer signal of tops and bottoms based on the same concept of examining average profit and loss across a network.

UTXOs in Profit

UTXOs in Profit, as the name suggests, represents the absolute number of UTXOs in a given network which are currently in profit (i.e. the price at the time they were created is lower than the current price).

UTXOs in Loss

UTXOs in Loss, as the name suggests, represents the absolute number of UTXOs in a given network which are currently in loss (i.e. the price at the time they were created is higher than the current price).

The distinction between HODL waves and Realized Cap HODL waves may be though of as follows:

• HODL waves consider the relative proportion of BTC supply in various age brackets to the circulating BTC supply.

  • A 1y-2y age bracket with a value of 5% indicates that 5% of all coins are aged between 1y and 2y.

• Realized Cap HODL waves consider the economic weight (USD realized value) of the coin supply in various age brackets, relative to the Realized Cap (total realized value of coin supply).

  • A 1y-2y age bracket with a value of 5% indicates 5% of the Realized cap USD value is derived from coins aged between 1y and 2y.

Young Coin Behaviour

The chart below presents a view where all coins older than 6 months are turned off making the proportion of young, recently moved coins stand out clearly.

As bull markets progress, long term holders spend (and likely sell) their coins. These spends result in old coins recategorizing into young coins, and with a higher Realized Price (i.e. the price the coin last moved). A higher economic weight carried by younger, more liquid coins results in the following findings in the Realized Cap HODL Wave chart:

• Distribution tops occur when young coins (<6 months) are valued at 80%+ of the value of the Realized Cap. This indicates newer buyers hold a large proportion of the economic value, creating increased probability of oversupply and a market top.

• Accumulation bottoms occur when young coins (<6 months) are valued at <40% of the value of the Realized Cap. This indicates buyers of coins during the bull cycle have either capitulated, or still hold onto the coins showing conviction. Smart money investors accumulate younger coins, and keep their older coin holdings dormant.

Old Coin Behaviour

The chart below presents a view where all coins younger than 6 months are turned off making the proportion of old, unmoved coins stand out clearly.

As bear markets progress, younger unspent coins mature and recategorize into older coins, usually accumulated by smart money, higher conviction buyers. During this period the economic weight carried by older coins increases forming growing market support. This dynamic yields the following findings in the Realized Cap HODL Waves chart:

• Accumulation bottoms occur when old coins (>6 months) are valued at 60%+ of the value of the Realized Cap.

• Distribution tops occur when old coins (>6 months) are valued at <20% of the value of the Realized Cap.

HODL Waves present a macro view of the age distribution of the coin supply and provides insight into changes to this age distribution arising from holding and spending behaviour. The metric bundles the coin supply into categories depending on age, and presents it in colour bands with a thickness proportional to the total coin supply.

Young Coins

The chart below presents a view where all coins older than 6 months are turned off making the proportion of young, recently moved coins stand out clearly.

We can see that particularly around bull market peaks, there is a marked increase in young coin supply as older coins are spent and profits realised into market strength. This provides insight into the times when smart money investors with long time horizons are spending and re-activating dormant coins. This may increase the liquid circulating supply if those coins are sold.

It is important to note that the spending of old coins will have immediate effect on the thickness of the youngest coin HODL wave colour band.

Old Coins

The chart below presents a view where only coins aged between 1-year and 5-years are turned on to demonstrate the oscillation of coin dormancy between cycles. Here we ignore ancient and lost coins (>5yrs) given their low probability of being spent back into circulation. We also ignore young coins to make changes in older coin supply clearer.

Old coin supply bands tends to peak in the during and following bear markets and into early bull markets due to the maturation time lag.

• Yellow 1yr to 2yr brackets will start to increase first as coins accumulated during the early bear market begin to mature.

• Green 2yr+ bands then swell a year later until these HODL waves start to decline as old coins are spent into bull market strength. This represents the realisation of profits by long term holders and smart money investors.

Unlike young coins, the maturation of coins into older colour bands will always be offset by the lower bound age of the bracket. For example, swelling of the 2 to 3-yr age band due to a large coin withdrawal will only commence 2-years after the coins were moved. As such interpretation must account for this time offset in each age bracket under consideration.

A general framework for considering LTH and STH supply is as follows:

• Long-Term Holders keep possession of their coins for periods of time spanning several months to years. We consider an approximate threshold of a 155-day holding period, after which dormant coins becoming increasingly unlikely to be spent.

• Short-Term Holders are newer market entrants, active traders, and "weak hands" that a more likely to exit positions in response to market volatility. Coins younger than 155-days are statistically more likely to be re-spent, and thus are considered a more liquid and active portion of the supply.

这里的这个趋势就比较明显了，LTH的supply跟价格基本上是反着的，STH的supply跟价格基本上是比较吻合的。

Based on previous historical spend analysis, a coin becomes statistically unlikely to be moved after 155 days of dormancy. This data point is used as a threshold to delineate between Long-Term and Short-Term Holders.

To improve visualization, a smoothing curve is used to model the weighting of the LTH-STH buckets. This smoothing ensures that resulting metrics do not suffer from artefacts related to a few hodlers suddenly crossing the sharp threshold. The midpoint is at 155 days and with a transition width of 10 days (details here).

没想到，这个155days的数据他们居然是检测过了之后统计出来的结果。这点是让我完全没想到的。

Percent Supply in Profit

A coin is in profit if the current price is higher than the price at the time it was last moved. Conversely, a coin is in loss if the current price is lower than the price at the time it was last moved.

Percent Supply in Profit highlights the percentage of the total supply which is currently in profit. This metric represents an oscillator that allows us to better understand the current state of the market for a given coin: in general, values above 95% suggest market tops, while values below 5% signal bottoms.

Supply in Profit

Supply in Profit, as the name suggests, represents the absolute amount of coins in a given network which are currently in profit (i.e. the price at the time they were last moved is lower than the current price).

This metric is helpful in highlighting market tops by suggesting when investors might be close to taking profits.

It is important to note that unlike Unrealized Profit, Supply in Profit does not account for the amount of profit - only the binary case of whether or not the coin is in profit.

Supply in Loss

An Accumulation Trend Score of closer to 1 indicates that on aggregate, larger entities (or a big part of the network) are accumulating, and a value closer to 0 indicates they are distributing or not accumulating. This provides insight into the balance size of market participants, and their accumulation behavior over the last month.

• A score closer to 1 reflects that, over the last month, big participants (or a big part of the network) have been accumulating coins.

• A score closer to 0 reflects that, over the last month, big participants haven’t been accumulating coins or that they have been selling them.

UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows at which prices the current set of Bitcoin UTXOs were created (i.e. each bar shows the amount of existing bitcoins that last moved within that specified price bucket). The price specified on the x-axis refers to the lower bound of that bucket.

SOPD (Spent Output Price Distribution)

Spent Output Price Distribution (SOPD) shows the volume of coins moved on-chain on any given day, and at which prices the movements occurred.

Spent Output Price Distribution (SOPD) shows at which prices UTXOs were spent on a given day (i.e. each bar shows the amount of Bitcoin volume that was moved within that specified price bucket). The price specified on the x-axis refers to the lower bound of that bucket.

The Stock to Flow (S/F) Ratio is a popular model that assumes that scarcity drives value. It is defined as the ratio of the current stock of a commodity and the flow of new production, and is applied across many asset classes.

Bitcoin's price has historically followed the S/F Ratio, making it a popular model for predicting future Bitcoin valuations.

Stock to Flow is defined as the ratio of the current stock of a commodity (i.e. circulating Bitcoin supply) and the flow of new production (i.e. newly mined bitcoins).

Stock to Flow Deflection

The Stock to Flow (S/F) Deflection is the ratio between the current price of an asset and its Stock to Flow Ratio. It is used to determine whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued in relation to its scarcity.

If deflection is ≥ 1 it means that the asset is overvalued according to the S/F model. If deflection is <1, the asset is undervalued according to this model.

Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Ratio describes the relationship between market cap and transfer volume. Per Willy Woo, its creator, NVT can be considered analogous to the PE (price to earnings) Ratio used in equity markets.

Another viewpoint for NVT is that it is the inverse of monetary velocity, comparing two of Bitcoin's primary value propositions:

• Store of Value: Market Cap

• Settlement/Payments Network: Transfer Volume

Via the NVT Ratio, users can witness the relative balance between these two components , with trends and extreme values providing insights via the following general framework:

• A high NVT Ratio (or uptrend) indicates that investors are pricing Bitcoin at a premium, as Market Cap growth outpaces utilisation of on-chain transaction volume and value settlement. High NVT Ratio values have historically coincided with market tops and periods of overvaluation.

• A low NVT Ratio (or downtrend) indicates that investors are pricing Bitcoin at a discount, as on-chain Transfer Volume and network utilisation outpaces Market Cap growth. Low NVT Ratio values have historically been periods where it is advantageous to accumulate, and often coincide with market bottoms and trending bull markets.

• A constant NVT Ratio (or sideways trend) indicates that the current growth trend of both Market Cap and Transfer Volume are in equilibrium, suggesting the current market trend is sustainable. Such states are often reached during the early to mid phases of a bullish or bearish trend where the market direction is well established.

NVT Signal

NVT Signal (NVTS) is a modified version of the original NVT Ratio and carries many similar interpretation properties. It uses a 90 day moving average of the daily transfer volume in the denominator instead of the raw daily transfer volume. The implementation of this moving average makes the ratio more responsive to real time over-extensions in price action as value (Market Cap) outpaces utility (90 day Transfer Volume).

Ratio values at either extreme tell analysts one of two things:

• A high NVT Signal (or uptrend) indicates that investors are pricing Bitcoin at a premium, as Market Cap growth outpaces on-chain Transfer Volume. High NVT Signal values have historically been periods to distribute BTC and often coincide with market tops.

• A low NVT Signal (or downtrend) indicates that investors are pricing Bitcoin at a discount, as on-chain Transfer Volume outpaces Market Cap growth. Low NVT Signal values have historically been periods to accumulate BTC and often coincide with market bottoms.

• A constant NVT Signal (or sideways trend) indicates that the current growth trend of both Market Cap and Transfer Volume are in equilibrium, suggesting the current market trend is sustainable. Such states are often reached during the early to mid phases of a bullish or bearish trend where the market direction is well established.

说白了，就是每天的spent output里面的utxo有的是新的，有的是旧的，每个时间阶段都有一个他的占比。全部加起来就是100%。

一些老币开始卖了就说明一些问题。

ASOL (Average Spent Output Lifespan) is the average lifespan (in days) of all spent transaction outputs.

• High indicator values occur when a large proportion of old coins are on the move, potentially realising profits, taking advantage of market strength, or have reduced conviction to hold the asset.

• Low indicator values occur when day-to-day, young coins dominate network traffic, older transaction outputs remain dormant, and conviction to continue holding the asset is high.

MSOL (Median Spent Output Lifespan) is the median lifespan (in days) of all spent transaction outputs.

MSOL highlights on a macro level the median lifespan of coins on a per transaction output basis that were spent that day. This provides insight into the balance between short-term (young coins) and long-term (old coins) spending behaviour over a period of time.

Peaks in MSOL above 2.0 days tend to occur in periods of high market volatility as a greater proportion of network traffic is comprised of old coins being spent. High MSOL values provide valuable insight on the relative balance of young to old coins, particularly if elevated values persist for long periods of time.

Average Coin Dormancy is calculated by dividing the number of coin days destroyed in a given day by the on-chain volume of that day.

Supply-Adjusted Dormancy

Supply-Adjusted Dormancy simply divides Average Coin Dormancy by the circulating supply (total amount of coins issued).

Liveliness is a metric which provides insights into shifts in macro HODLing behaviour, helping to identify trends in long term holder accumulation or spending. It highlights periods where coin days are being destroyed at a rate faster than the global network is accumulating them.

Liveliness is powerful tool for identification of market cycles. Under the assumption that smart money HODLers accumulate cheap coins and sell expensive coins, we can use the overall trend of liveliness to assess their spending/saving behaviour. The chart below shows:

• Bull Markets: HODLers spending expensive coins destroying accumulated coin days and leading to an uptrend in Liveliness (red)

• Bear markets: HODLers accumulating cheap coins increasing dormancy and leading to a downtrend in Liveliness (green)

• Re-accumulation: Balanced on-chain activity with coin days destroyed proportional to global coin day accumulation (blue)

Coin Days Destroyed is a measure of economic activity which gives more weight to coins which haven't been spent for a long time.

For example:

• A UTXO for 2 BTC that is dormant for 100-days has accumulated 200 coin days.

• A UTXO for 0.5 BTC that is dormant for 100-days has accumulated 50 coin days.

• A UTXO for 10 BTC that is dormant for 6-hours (0.25-days) has accumulated 2.5 coin days.

CDD is a valuable tool for observing the spending behaviour of long term holders and wealthy investors as it considers both lifespan and coin volume. It is particularly well suited for observing macro trends where entities who accumulated in previous cycles begin start spending their coins.

CDD is sensitive to the spending of:

• Coins with long lifespans: where each old coin has accumulated large number of coin days.

• Large coin volumes: where wealthy investors with large coin holdings are spent destroying a large number of coin days. Note that if the same set of coins are sent back and forth, at most, one coin day per unit coin transacted can be destroyed per day.

• Large coin volumes which also have long lifespans: This combined effect will have an outsized impact on the CDD metric.

With this in mind, some example observations with respect to the CDD indicator and horizontal levels are:

• CDD values < 5 Million days have historically described day-to-day baseline traffic and in recent years has provided a lower-bound floor as the Bitcoin protocol accumulates coin days.

• CDD values > than 10 million days are often correlated with bullish markets and local market tops or bottoms as a moderate increase in older coins moving due to spending by long term holders.

• CDD values > than 20 million days are historically uncommon and tend to only occur during periods of high volatility as larger volumes of old coins are spent, potentially realising profits or losses.

• Note that absolute values of CDD will vary over time and must be considered within this context and/or considered alongside the Supply-Adjusted CDD metric.

所以，图里面显示的是每天消耗的CDD（注意，这里最后一个D对应的是Destored），也就是说对应的是当天消耗的Coin Days。

Supply-Adjusted CDD

Supply-Adjusted CDD accounts for the impact that coin day accumulation by the total supply has on the Coin Days Destroyed metric. As more coins are issued and more coin days are accumulated by the aggregate network, the lower bound of coin days destroyed will increase over time.

Binary CDD

Binary Coin Days Destroyed (Binary CDD) is a derivative of the Supply-Adjusted CDD metric. It considers whether the volume of coin days destroyed over the period of interest was more, or less, than the long-term historical average. This provides a view as to whether the spending behaviour of large volumes and/or old coins is significant relative to historical data.

Binary CDD will return either a 1 or a 0:

• Returns 1: when measured Supply-Adjusted CDD is greater than the long term average.

• Returns 0: when measured Supply-Adjusted CDD is less than the long term average.

In general, long-term holders (LTH) will spend old coins during bullish trends, taking advantage of market strength and thus destroying a larger than average volume of coin days. Conversely, during bearish market trends, on-chain activity tends to reduce and off-chain exchange volumes dominate activity. During these periods, LTHs and smart money investors often accumulate cheap coins and withdraw them to cold storage. This leads to periods with less than average coin days being destroyed.

Binary CDD is best considered in context of the prevailing market trend and can generally be considered in line with the following framework:

• Bullish market trends are typically characterised by sustained periods of Binary CDD = 1, as higher on-chain volumes and older coins are spent into the economy.

• Bearish market trends are typically characterised by a 'bar-code' style pattern in the Binary CDD metric with alternating values of 0 and 1, as on-chain volumes and coin lifespans become more variable but with a higher proportion of below average coin day destruction.

CYD (Coin Years Destroyed)

Coin Years Destroyed (CYD) takes the rolling sum of coin days destroyed (CDD) over the previous 365-day period as a macro indicator for annual economic activity.

Supply-Adjusted CYD

Supply-Adjusted CYD accounts for the impact that coin day accumulation by the total supply has on the Coin Years Destroyed metric. As more coins are issued and more coin days are accumulated by the aggregate network, the lower bound of coin days destroyed will increase over time.

Reserve Risk

这里的median VOCDD表示的是median处理的VOCDD （Value of Coin Day Destoried）意思是每天销毁的cdd的价格，所以price-median vocdd意思应该就是现价-销毁cdd的价格，也就是对应的一个机会成本；

By baking in cumulative unspent opportunity cost as the denominator, over time, the weight of long-term holder conviction increases as coin dormancy increases. This results in two observations:

• Periods of undervaluation are relatively long and often encapsulate the second half of bear markets and continue through to the first half of bull markets.

  • A Reserve Risk ratio below 0.0026 is empirically presented as an area of undervaluation based on historical performance.

• Periods of overvaluation are often short and sharp, due to the compounding effects of higher prices and the subsequent incentive for long term holders to realise profits and spend old coins.

  • A Reserve Risk ratio above 0.0200 is presented as an empirical area of overvaluation based on historical observations and often occur only briefly at global market blow-off tops.

其中两个数据比较关键，大于0.02意思就是在overvaluation阶段，小于0.0026意思就是在undervaluation阶段；

The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) is the ratio between Bitcoin supply and the supply of stablecoins, denominated in BTC.

When the SSR is low, the current stablecoin supply has more "buying power" to purchase BTC. It serves as a proxy for the supply/demand mechanics between BTC and USD.

Interpretation of the Puell Multiple can generally be considered in the following framework:

• High values indicate that current miner profitability if high compared to the yearly average. As such, the incentive for miners to liquidate their treasuries is high and greater sell pressure may be expected.

• Low values indicate that current miner profitability is low compared to the yearly average. As such, income stress may become a factor, and some miners may need to start reducing hash-power by switching off rigs. This increases the hash-share of remaining miners who can then sell fewer coins to cover their operations, reducing their impact on liquid supply.

• Halving events will drop the current coin issuance by 50% relative to the preceding year creating an immediate halving of the Puell Multiple also. The effect on miner profitability will thus be as per the point on low values above.

Net Realized Profit/Loss

通过公式直接可以看明白啥意思了。

Realized Profit

Realized Loss

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) specifically looks at the difference between Unrealized Profit and Unrealized Loss to determine whether the network as a whole is currently in a state of profit or loss.

Any value above zero indicates that the network is in a state of net profit, while values below zero indicate a state of net loss. In general, the further NUPL deviates from zero, the closer the market trends towards tops and bottoms. As such, NUPL can help investors identify when to take profit (blue) and when to re-enter (red).

Unrealized Profit

Unrealized Profit represents the total profit accrued by UTXOs which were created (i.e. realized) when the price of the asset was lower than the current price.

Unrealized Loss

LTH-NUPL

Long Term Holder NUPL (LTH-NUPL) is Net Unrealized Profit/Loss that takes into account only UTXOs with a lifespan of at least 155 days and serves as an indicator to assess the behaviour of long term investors.

STH-NUPL

Short Term Holder NUPL (STH-NUPL) is Net Unrealized Profit/Loss that takes into account only UTXOs with a lifespan of less than 155 days and serves as an indicator to assess the behaviour of short term investors.

The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator provides insight into macro market sentiment, profitability and losses taken over a particular time-frame. It reflects the degree of realised profit for all coins moved on-chain.

https://academy.glassnode.com/indicators/sopr/sopr-spent-output-profit-ratio

• SOPR values greater than 1 implies that the coins moved that day are, on average, selling at a profit (price sold is greater than the price paid).

• SOPR value less than 1 implies that the coins moved that day are, on average, selling at a loss (price sold is less than the price paid).

• SOPR value of exactly 1 implies that the coins moved that day are, on average, selling coins at break even.

• SOPR trending higher implies profits are being realised with potential for previously illiquid supply being returned to liquid circulation

• SOPR trending lower implies losses are being realised and/or profitable coins are not being spent.

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SOPR is a useful tool in all market conditions as it captures the aggregate profit and loss realised on a particular day This can often be considered a reflection of market sentiment. Both the absolute value of the indicator and the prevailing trend provides insight market spending behaviour.

aSOPR (Adjusted SOPR)

The adjusted SOPR has a similar construction and interpretation to the standard SOPR metric, however excludes all transaction volume for coins with a lifespan younger than 1hr.

Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR) filters out all UTXOs with a lifespan of less than an hour, thereby eliminating obvious relay transactions. This in turn, this provides a more accurate signal of actual sale/purchase transactions, and better captures economically meaningful activity.

The SOPR metric is sensitive to the aggregate profit and loss realised by UTXOs spent on-chain. In the Spent Output Age Bands chart below, we filter to show only spent coins with a lifespan less than 1hr. This demonstrates that coins with <1hr lifespans consistently represent between 20% and 40% of daily network traffic. Given their short lifespan, these coins generally do not realise significant profit, nor loss, however do dilute the aggregate profit and loss.

LTH-SOPR

Long-Term Holder SOPR (LTH-SOPR) is a variant of SOPR that takes into account only spent outputs older than 155 days. As such, LTH-SOPR serves as an indicator for assessing the behaviour and profitability of smart-money investors who have greater fundamental understanding of the asset and more experience in market volatility.

Over the course of 155-days (LTH threshold), it is common for market volatility and price to resolve in a direction, either above, or below the price when the UTXO was created (assumed cost basis). As a result, when a coin held by a LTH is spent, it tends to realise a sizeable profit or loss. Unlike the standard SOPR metric and variants (aSOPR and STH-SOPR), which typically oscillate around a value of 1.0, the LTH-SOPR often reaches relatively large (> 2.0) and small values (<0.8).

• High LTH-SOPR Values indicate that on aggregate, LTHs are realising high profit multiples on spent coins. A LTH-SOPR value of 4.0 can generally be interpreted as LTHs realising an aggregate average profit of 300% (4.0 - 1.0 = 3.0) that day.

• Low LTH-SOPR Values indicate that on aggregate, LTHs are realising losses on spent coins, which is typical only in bear markets. A LTH-SOPR value of 0.6 can be interpreted as LTHs realising an aggregate loss of 40% (0.6 - 1.0 = -0.4) that day.

  LTH-SOPR can provide macro cyclical top and bottom signals as demonstrated in the chart below. Macro tops have historically been reached when LTH-SOPR values >10 are achieved, indicating profits of 900%+ are being realised by LTHs. Macro bottoms have historically been established where LTHs are realising significant losses with LTH-SOPR reaching 0.6 and below (losses of 40% or more).

Glassnode

MVRV (market-value-to-realized-value) is a ratio of an asset's Market Capitalization versus its Realized Capitalization. By comparing these two metrics, MVRV can be used to get a sense of when price is above or below "fair value", and to assess market profitability. Extreme deviations between market value and realized value can be used to identify market tops and bottoms as they reflect periods of extremes investor unrealized profit and loss, respectively.

https://academy.glassnode.com/market/mvrv/mvrv-ratio

MVRV Ratio signals leave very little room for ambiguity. These signal are as follows:

High MVRV Values

• Price has diverged from cost basis by a very large margin, suggesting large unrealized profitability across the market.

• Increases likelihood that investors will begin distributing coins, adding to the liquid supply that must be absorbed by demand.

• Extreme values (historically > 3.5) are bearish signals, indicative of potential cycle tops.

Low MVRV Values

• Price has fallen below the aggregate cost basis by a large margin, suggesting investors are holding low unrealized profits, and/or large unrealized losses.

• Increases likelihood that investors will, or have capitulated, and suggests that the asset is historically undervalued.

• MVRV trading < 1 has historically signalled bear market bottoms, and smart money accumulation are in play.

MVRV-Z Score

https://academy.glassnode.com/market/mvrv/mvrv-z-score

The MVRV-Z Score is used to assess when an asset is overvalued or undervalued relative to its "fair value", as underlined by the deviation between its market cap and realized cap.

When market value is significantly higher than realized value, it has historically indicated a market top (red zone), while the opposite has indicated market bottoms (green zone).

LTH-MVRV

Long Term Holder MVRV (LTH-MVRV) is MVRV that takes into account only UTXOs as old as or older than 155 days and serves as an indicator to assess the behaviour of long-term investors.

STH-MVRV

Indicator Overview

Short Term Holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) is MVRV that takes into account only UTXOs younger than 155 days and serves as an indicator to assess the behaviour of short-term investors.

参数1: Realised cap

https://academy.glassnode.com/market/realized-capitalization

公式：

理解要点：

1. Given realized cap values each coin at the time last moved, it can be considered a proxy for the value 'stored' or 'saved' in the asset. 假想一下，2009年开始有人挖btc，那个时候没有交易没有价格，这个时候突然，有人花了100刀买了1万个btc，这个时候创建了一个新的UTXO并且这个UTXO是带价格的，那么交易完成了之后，整个BTC网络里面stored的价值就是100刀，因为此刻其他的UTXO都是在没有价格的情况下产生的。For example, bitcoin that were last spent in 2009 before BTC had a price and are now lost will have an economic value in the realized cap framework equal to zero.

2. Realized cap reduces the impact of lost and long dormant coins, and weights coins according to their actual presence in the economy of a given chain.也就是说那些老币在他们的UTXO刚刚创建的时候是非常低的价格，这个Realized Cap里面对于这些老币的计算出来的量就非常少，也就是说这个老币当时创建的时候价格是一个btc对应1刀的话，那么哪怕当时是有100万个，也计算的是100万刀而已。

Changes in realized cap will occur under the following framework:

• Increases in realized cap will occur when coins that were last moved at cheaper prices are spent. This action re-prices them higher and realized cap will increase by the volume of coins multiplied by the difference between last price and current price.

• Decreases in realized cap will occur when coins that were last moved at more expensive prices are spent. This action re-prices them lower and realized cap will decrease by the volume of coins multiplied by the difference between last price and current price.

• Magnitude of change in realised cap is directly related to the difference in price between when a coin was last moved and the current price when it is spend. Coins re-priced by more significant amounts will have larger influence on the realised cap。

  The realized cap is well paired against the market cap using the Glassnode Compare tool to observe various market phases. Under the framework that realized cap estimates the aggregate cost basis of the market:

  • Where the market cap trades above realized cap, the market is in aggregate profit.

  • Where the market cap trades below realized cap, the market is at an aggregate loss.