News on the trench fire site

On 6 May, the Sensit Office in Sichuan Province issued an early warning on high forest grassland fires, which is expected to be 7 May - On 11 September, the level of risk for forest grass-roots fire in the market will be maintained at extremely dangerous levels.

Weather-level forecasts for the fireproofing of forest grass from the plunging market: 7-11 May, the city-wide weather was dominated by high temperatures, low humidity, and the forest grassland fire hazard class 4-5.

Table 4-5 below shows the level of risk for forest grass-roots fires in the Department of Forestry, which is upgraded: 7-11 May, level 4-5 for urban grassland fires.

Taking into account the above conclusions, it is anticipated that 7 May - 7 May - will take place in the context of meteorological conditions, forest pastures, man-made activities, wild sources and historical fires. On 11 November, the high-season fire hazard class in the market will be maintained at an extremely dangerous level, with red warnings of high forest pastures.

International Federation of Red Star journalists

The market has adjusted rapidly since the beginning of the year, and pessimism has spread. However, in recent trading days, the market rebound has boosted investor confidence, and some positive signals are gradually emerging.

It is reported that many funds have started to increase their positions at a low level. Not only has the overall position of partial equity funds increased, but some star fund managers have also opened the “bottom reading mode”. Zheng chengran, Lu Bin, Cao Mingchang and other fund managers have all scrambled to raise money on bargain hunting in the near future to capture investment opportunities.

Overweight of partial equity funds

According to the data of Haomai fund research center, as of last Friday (May 6), the current position of partial equity funds was 61.28%, which was 3.03 percentage points higher than that a week ago. Among them, the positions of equity funds increased by 1.72 percentage points, and the positions of standard hybrid funds increased by 3.21 percentage points. The current positions are 80.42% and 58.73% respectively.

The estimated positions of wind funds have also been increased. According to wind data, as of May 10, 1940 of all equity funds and hybrid funds have chosen to increase their positions, with an increase of more than 0.2%, accounting for nearly 30%; About 37% of the funds chose to stand still, and the proportion of position change was controlled within 0.2%.

Compared with the past, up to now, the positions of partial equity funds are generally at the historical median level. According to the data of Haomai fund research center, the stock position of partial equity funds once reached 70.14% at the end of the first quarter of 2021 and 52.79% at the end of the third quarter of 2016. At present, the position level of 61.28% is basically in the historical middle, which is the same as that at the end of the second quarter of 2018.

In addition to fund positions, the level of risk premium can also reflect the current market risk appetite, market sentiment and implied rate of return, which is also one of the bases often used by fund managers and macro strategy analysts to judge from top to bottom.

Lu Bin, fund manager of HSBC Jinxin, believes that the risk premiums of different style indexes, whether Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and China Securities 800, or gem and SME board, are at a historically high level, more than double the standard deviation, close to the level of the end of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019, which means that the implied rate of return of the current market can be comparable to that of the end of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019. When the risk compensation of the market is high enough, all mainstream funds, institutional funds and smart funds will gradually enter the market for investment and allocation.

Many star managers copy the bottom

Recently, a number of listed companies disclosed the latest list of the top ten circulating shareholders due to repurchase, major asset restructuring and other reasons, and the position adjustment trend of fund managers was also exposed. Public information shows that a number of star managers are scrambling for chips on bargain hunting and bottom hunting against the market in this round of market adjustment.

For example, on May 11, star technology released the latest list of the top ten circulating shareholders. Among them, Guangfa Xinxiang Xinjin managed by Zheng chengran, the star fund manager of Guangfa fund, became the eighth circulating shareholder of the stock. As of May 9, it held 15.7385 million shares, with a market value of about 70 million yuan.

Star Technology’s main business involves traditional metal wires and silicone. Its products are widely used in new energy vehicle tires, photovoltaic polysilicon chips, etc., which is also very consistent with Zheng chengran’s preference for the new energy sector. In terms of share price, stellar technology rose by more than 150% in the new energy market in 2021, and then started the correction in late February this year. During this period, it once corrected by nearly 30%, and has rebounded since the end of April.

As another example, according to the 4D tuxin announcement, as of April 29, HSBC Jinxin low-carbon pioneer Xinjin managed by Lu Bin has become the tenth largest circulating shareholder of the stock, holding 20.033 million shares and a stock market value of about 250 million yuan.

Lu Bin once said publicly that after the early market adjustment, many industries and companies have had great investment opportunities, and he is indeed making decisive moves on the opportunities he is optimistic about.

In addition, Cao Mingchang, a veteran of the “value faction” of China Europe Fund, increased his position in golis. According to the announcement, Mr. Cao has held the subject matter through the heavy position of the China EU value discovery fund since the second quarter of 2021, and has increased his position for many times since then. As of April 29, the fund held 6.6763 million shares of Galax, an increase of 100000 shares compared with the end of March, and is currently the second largest circulating shareholder.

At the end of April this year, affected by the sharp decline in the net profit of the annual report and the first quarter report, the share price of GELIS fell by the limit for three consecutive trading days, but Cao Mingchang increased his position against the trend.

In addition to the above fund managers, Qian Ruinan, a veteran of industrial fund, added positions to Saiyi information. As of April 27, the number of holdings of Saiyi information held by its managed industrial Xingrui in two years increased by 200000 shares compared with the end of March. According to the stock price, Saiyi information fell by 20% in the first quarter of this year, and there was a certain degree of adjustment in April. Qian Ruinan still chose to increase his position at a low level.

Fundamentals and emotional inflection point approaching

Both the improvement of the overall position and the bottom reading of oversold stocks show that the confidence of fund managers in the future market is gradually increasing. When will the market bottom out? Many fund managers said that the second quarter may be an important turning point in economic fundamentals and market sentiment.

“We expect the bottom of the market to form slowly in the second quarter. The primary variable is whether the domestic economy can return to work, and the secondary variable is whether the US inflation level can peak and fall.” Li Dehui, fund manager of Shanghai Investment Morgan, said. As for growth or value, he believes that in the process of basic orientation, value stocks will be more dominant than growth stocks. At present, the decline momentum of some stocks with anti risk ability and below a reasonable market value has been significantly weakened. Therefore, in growth stocks, some of the hardest core growth stocks have a high probability of stabilizing slowly.

Lu Bin will launch a new fund HSBC Jinxin times pioneer next week. As for why to launch products at the freezing point of the market, he said that at present, the risk compensation in the A-share market has been very attractive. The market has fully reflected the pessimistic forecasts such as the impact of the epidemic and geopolitics, and the short-term factors perplexing the market and industry such as rising costs are also expected to be alleviated in the second quarter or the second half of the year. From the perspective of a year or two, This is a very good investment time.

Guohai Franklin equity investment