• They r clearly natively domestic money and be constrained by de strict money cross-boarder regulation. In this case, two way showed on: shifting to local vocational&skill education and transfer to TMT(espically crypto or so called Web3.0) segment w/ solid wealth effect.

• De former one isnt sexy and groovy enough: fundamentally saying newborn goes down consecutively, ARPU story been proved wrong by a consumption ceiling, harshed red sea in tier 1+1.5 citiez, building a vocational school is quite heterogeneous and labor intensive(both teach&manage).

• Edu department once a damn good cupcake for VCs in china. The narrative repeatly is CN in the period of the regrouping of urban clusters. Tier 3-4 cities' residents shift to de 3 major agglomerations. Once the grouping done, we could see a inverse urbanization like developed countries.

• Then we could find dedicated ppl ho "understand edu paradigm", in other words, we "invest in people". Its quite similar to crypto invest in this early bird period. We find right people and relying on them to find students source, continuing to prove a horizontal bussiness model.

• Hw, there are still some discrpancies. In edu the most we encounter SOE competitor, having to take care relationships with local even central gov's fist. We depends on de increase of average comsumption power of residents and de Maslow's hierarchy of needs.

• I have met several experienced edu ventures recently, who are moving their ass to crypto now. Crypto ppl dont come to de ground for any personal improvement. They here implement for money. Thats it. No exception for gamefi, nft, socialfi, and most importantly defi proj.

• And the whole industry still a seed. Fragile and stinky exploits happens incredibly often; Capital players chases for anything newer. De most signicantly different factor is not ppl can buy more. Conversely most ppl flooded in bc they cannot make this level of money elsewhere!

• This bring many self-doubts to these prev edu investors. In such a flourish money pounds, ARPU of tools protocol(let’s say they’re non-native VC’s favorite) is crazily low. Users’ intention for paying a homogeneous code is incredibly low. Some found the key is BD or tokenomics.

• But in EDU, ppl are willing to pay for "the other but nearly the same". Almost every piano teacher starts with MARIAGE DAMOUR, every math teacher starts with arithmetic but parents are buying dat! We do invest in ppl but the core logic changes. Crypto is boarder-less and open source.

• I do rethink invest criteria and my bad bets from this. I got my case1: just ok dedicated code-driven team, fork tokenomics and so-so BD. We the "A on B" like "the Superfluid on S chain" "the Dydx on A chain". The excuses: market base is still potential. Hw, Horizontal fork would be iterated during dat certainly if your team dont keep up with the forked.

• Case2: smart niche improvement on a popular mature service, smart team good at "techinical arbitrage". Horizontally value it and got a 8/9-digit numbers. Hw, no mkt reaction after online. TVL no booms since no proved demand. Ppl come for money not for horizontal compensation.

• Thats all wat I think. Restructure invest thesis and refocus on more vertical innovation is more important than anything else in an emerging code-reined world. Some may argue the real different ones are solidly scratched by tier1 VCs but to discover a gem requires we need more focus.

• Let the code govern do not let the rush of latecomers be the regent.

本文只从纯交易角度看待NFT市场整体，而不讨论具体的nft使用途径和发展。

为什么我们把NFT塞进了我们的投资组合中，这样的配置有何优劣之处？

将NFTs 纳入投资组合是从21年九月份我从hedge fund辞职之后慢慢尝试的一种“管理不活跃的储备资产”方式，比起一种特别的资产配置，我更倾向于把它视为一种cash，并配置30%~35%的仓位。很多人会很疑惑，抛弃文化属性、艺术性、互操作性等特征，从纯交易角度看NFT整体的特性是：非同质化的、流动性割裂的、缺乏应急保障的。

NFTs function like cryptographic tokens, but, unlike cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin or Ethereum, NFTs are not mutually interchangeable, hence not fungible. While all bitcoins are equal, each NFT may represent a different underlying asset and thus may have a different value.[8] NFTs are created when blockchains string records of cryptographic hash, a set of characters identifying a set of data, onto previous records therefore creating a chain of identifiable data blocks.[9] This cryptographic transaction process ensures the authentication of each digital file by providing a digital signature that is used to track NFT ownership.[9] However, data links that point to details such as where the art is stored can be affected by link rot. from WIKIpedia

但同时我们发现，NFT市场的内部有着巨大的分野。我们可以通过投资标的的选择使得NFT配置变得可能。

1. NFT市场与Crypto整体市场行情保持着相对独立性，从历史数据回顾过去1.5年，其整体市值correlation在20%以下。我们对其hedging作用表示怀疑，但作为E本位市场指数而言有着良好的anti-shock表现。

2. Tier1/2的蓝筹项目具有非常好的保值性与独立行情特征。反之，据Coindeck：从2021年7月以来整体发售的NFT超过13万个+，绝大部分湮没在历史的尘埃中，只有少数艺术性/utility有创新的项目杀出重围。我们对腰部以上的蓝筹项目有着坚定的持仓信心，反之，对于高赔率的诱人新项目/白名单配置我们保持审慎。

3. 据NFTGO：截至17 Feb 2022 Mkt Cap属于ATH高位$16.67B，Holders超过1.8m位。但令人诧异的是，history trading volume只有$28.48B。Volume/MktCAP只有可怜的1.7。其中1097 whales🐋 hold NFTs worth $3.83B, occupying 22.98% of the global market cap of $16.67B。同时我们发现，2021年10月以来，头部的十个项目(dynamic)占了总体市值的35%和整体交易额的70%。不论是从定性和定量的简单分析都可以得出：流动性确实很差；整体市值的上涨集约地体现在了小部分标的抱团做市上；🐋鲸鱼对NFT市场影响力非常大，占了每天交易额的42%(2022.02)。

4. 我们还必须考虑整体市值的计算虚胖地考虑了按floor price计算的一些没有成交量的项目，如果把那些没有成交的项目剔除，头部项目/真实总体市值比例会有一个相当吓人的比重。

5. So the idea is clear: 对于small fund而言，在没有更好的交易机会时，抱团跟着做头部tier1-1.5蓝筹标的是很好的cash标的。用spider爬取近三个月头部3个项目（按每日交易量计）的contract call，观察按地板价list→transfer平均时长，不超过65mins。 且部分头部项目流通量一度非常低punks/BAYC 几乎到达了合理价格区间内上架就会被秒的情况。

其实上面废话了这么多，最后的结论只有一句：对于机构而言，最可行保守也最能向lp交代的事情就在于买已有的蓝筹，挂单，等被收。这样的缺点有：

1. 永恒NFT牛市思维，认为目前的存量博弈是暂时的，目前市值/用户数离潜在值仍有相当大距离。

2. 目前头部都是pfp。NFT的发展需要更多的utility和赋能，极大可能会出现新的项目和新的nft使用形式颠覆目前的pfp龙头，这个过程是潜移默化的，但对NFT内部行情的影响是很深远的。

3. 被交易平台赚手续费，需要风险补偿。

4. E本位计价导致的eth价格下跌风险，多了一个需要对冲的资产。如果基本面portfolio同时在longing ETH，会变得比较尴尬；Quant还好。

5. 因为不是职业nft trader，忽视头部项目内部的行情波段，导致如必须进行清算时cash必须顶着浮亏还不一定卖得出去，很尴尬。

6. 错失类似azuki这样的顶级新型蓝筹的早期入场机会，进场接盘挂在树上1个月。

Why not a substitute?

为什么不尝试替代投资标的？

1. 稳定币挖矿：虽然市面上有很多好用的全生态稳定币APY研究工具，如vfat.tools。但：累，需要不停的sourcing新矿，要避免土矿，需要有专门的defi矿工研究员干这个事情。尝试下来，至少这六个月收益没有nft蓝筹来得高。

2. Spot stacking：把交易系统之外的portfolio份额拿来囤现货。Risk Management问题。

3. 尝试非常火爆的NFT新项目：

   1. mint前，白名单困难。购买白名单有破发风险。大部分新项目良莠不齐。大部分新项目价值支撑变成了mint price+白名单场外价格。随后变成看社区效果+美术+创新性。需要花很多时间做无意义的dd，做了也不一定赚钱。

   2. mint后接盘，并用所谓的“量表分析”评估项目基本面。行情好的时候有效，行情不好的波段里非常无效，耗费很多精力做无意义的dd。有些NFT资产管理DAO用这个模式全职进行投资也能取得不错的收益率，但并非我的主业，不好评价。

4. 拿去投一级：好项目没额度。

5. 提现大吃大喝：违法犯罪，被lp抓。

6. Hedging backup: 已经在交易系统做了对冲。

大体操作思路

1. Tier1-2蓝筹根据行情和内部分化入手，需要关注项目动态。

2. 观察🐋鲸鱼和单项目庄家的动作，揣测了解其背后投资逻辑（必须假设大家都不是傻子）。

3. 根据trait sniper评分做相对价格，收listed的稀有品（头部项目的稀有品往往比floor更容易获得流动性）以及地板（以便清算获得流动性）。

4. 专门花时间去做市场上emerging bluechip project的分析，抓已经从new project踏入bluechip potential项目的。需要从艺术性和传播程度入手。

5. 培养审美和艺术细胞，别在垃圾身上浪费时间。多与艺术家交流和观察艺术作品。多观察NFT行业动态。

6. 别忘记自己的主业，注意风险控制。注意仓位。

感谢阅读，期待与nft trader的交流。