From the beginning of 2023, the focus of the capital market in the first two months was mainly on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, which depends on inflation data (CPI). Consequently, the market mainly traded inflation. Since Dec. 2022, CPI data shows that the peak has passed, and the market generally expects inflation to fall back continually. The Federal Reserve may slow down interest rate hikes or cut interest rates this year. With the improvement of liquidity expectations, the Nasdaq sector's high-tech stocks have strengthened. During this period, the cryptocurrency market, led by Bitcoin, showed more characteristics of risky assets and had a positive correlation with high-tech stocks.

Recession dominated trading in Mar.- Apr. 2023

The market's style change began with the bank crisis on March 9, which disrupted the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction process and brought market doubts about the credential of the US dollar, causing gold to show stronger safe-haven properties during this period. This safe-haven sentiment also spread to digital gold, Bitcoin, too. In Apr., inflation continued to fall, causing the market to worry more about recession following with decreased inflation. This was reflected in the under-performance of the general stock market, and funds generally tended to flow into safe-haven assets. During this time, gold rose above the $2,000 and approached its historical high on Mar. 13 at $2048. Bitcoin showed stronger safe-haven properties and had a higher correlation with gold, reaching its highest point of the year at $31,050 on Mar. 14. When Bitcoin and Ether were relatively high, altcoin had a foundation for a significant range of strength.

Recent analysis of economic data and market trends

Several important economic data were released last week, and the US economic growth rate in the first quarter was lower than expected, at 1.1%, compared to the expected 1.9%, showing signs of recession in economic activity under the background of falling inflation. Following this, the PCE price index rose mom 0.1%, expected at 0.1%; and rose yoy 4.2%, expected at 4.1%. The upcoming May 3rd FOMC is not surprising, with another 25bp rate hike likely, and the Federal Reserve's hawkish will likely remain hawkish which is expected to have a negative impact on the market.

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin was strongly supported after falling to the 50-day moving average on April 24. However, it failed to stand above $30,000 in the subsequent rebound, causing it to test the 50-day moving average support again recently. Ethereum's trend is weaker than Bitcoin's, and the rebound failed to stand above $2,000. It has now fallen below the 50-day moving average, and the Shanghai upgrade trend has obviously ended. Falling altcoins are more than rising ones overall, and the core tokens in the LSD track that previously surged have all fallen sharply. Recently, the altcoin market has revolved around Meme currencies. Overall, it is still a battle between long and short internal funds, with little additional funds flowing in. It is difficult to see a sustained upward momentum until there is a significant positive catalyst.

23年开年以来，1-2月份资本市场的关注点主要集中在美联储的货币政策，而美联储的货币政策主要取决于通胀数据，因此表现为市场交易通胀为主。自22年12月以来，CPI数据显示高点已经过去，市场普遍预期通胀回落后，美联储或将减缓加息或在今年内降息。在流动性预期改善的前提下，Nasdaq板块高科技股走强。在这段时间里，以比特币为首的加密市场更多表现出风险资产的属性，和高科技股相关性更强。

23年3-4月份交易衰退为主

市场风格的转变始于3月9日银行危机，美国中小银行的流动性危机，打乱了美联储缩表进程，也带来了市场对于美元信用的质疑，导致黄金在这段时间表现出更强的避险属性，这样的避险情绪也蔓延至数字黄金比特币。进入4月份，通胀持续回落，使得市场更多担忧在通胀可控的情况下，将会不可避免地出现经济衰退，反映在大盘股的盈利不达预期，资金普遍倾向流入避险资产中。这段时间，黄金站上2k点整数位一度接近历史最高点，在3月13日达到年内最高$2,048；比特币表现出更强的避险属性，与黄金相关性更高，在3月14日达到年内最高点$31,050。在比特和以太相对高位震荡时，小币种才有一定基础大范围走强。

近期经济数据与市场走势分析

上周公布了几项重要的经济数据，一季度美国经济增速逊于预期，增速1.1%，预期1.9%，显示经济活动在通胀回落的背景下也表现出衰退的迹象。紧接着3月PCE物价指数环比增长0.1%，预期0.1%；同比增长4.2%，预期4.1%。马上到来的5月3日FOMC决议，至此已无太大悬念，大概率仍将保持再次加息25bp，同时美联储的鹰派口吻不会有太大改变，预计还是会对市场造成一定负面冲击。

技术分析上来看，比特币在4月24日下跌至50日均线后得到有力支撑，在随后的反弹中没有能够站上3w整数关口位置，导致近日再次测试50日均线的支撑。以太坊走势相较比特币更弱，反弹没有站上2k整数位，现已回落至50日均线下方，上海升级的行情显然已经结束。小币种整体跌多涨少，此前大涨的LSD赛道里的核心币种均已大幅回落，近期小币种行情主要围绕在Meme币种上。整体来看，仍然是场内资金的多空博弈，很少有场外资金的流入，在出现明显利好之前，很难见到持续向上的动力。

Since the Fed began raising interest rates since Mar. 22, from 0% to 4.75-5.00% in just one year, which has been rare as such a rapid pace of rate hikes. Before March, the rate hikes tamed the increase of inflation and negatively influenced risk assets such as US stocks and cryptocurrencies. However, before the liquidity crisis of small and medium-sized banks, the Fed had not seen any other negative impacts on the economy. Looking back at every rate hike, it would inevitably break something, and the crisis in small and medium-sized banks this month was mainly caused by the Fed's continuous interest rate hikes.

For banks, deposits from customers are liabilities on the banks’ balance sheet, while investments or loans made by banks are assets. From the liability side, if there is continued pressure on cash outflows or higher-yielding options (higher-yielding US bonds due to interest rate hikes), it will inevitably lead to outflows of bank deposits as the redemption of bank liabilities. From the asset side, external investments, such as MBS or US Treasury bonds, will continuously decrease in value under an overall rising interest rate environment, resulting in a large amount of unrealized losses on the banks’ books. If short term liquidity becomes scarce and bonds held on the asset side need to be sold at a loss, it will cause a contraction of assets, which will inevitably lead to more redemptions by depositors. To sum up, interest rate hikes affect both the asset and liability sides of banks. All banks operate with leverage and can have a maximum leverage of 12.5 times according to the capital adequacy ratio requirements of the Basel Accord. Any bank with insufficient instant cash flow has to face the pressure of redemption, leading to a bigger bank run in small and medium-sized banks.

The liquidity pressure on small and medium-sized banks, combined with the crisis at systemically important bank Credit Suisse, has caused general panic in the market. The S&P 500 fell below its long-term 200-day moving average support on March 9 and 10, until the US Treasury, Fed, and FDIC announced the emergency support plan BTFP on March 12, which brought US stocks back to the support line.

Joint Rescue by the Fed and Others to Aid Banks, Driving the Rise of Safe-Haven Assets such as Gold and Bitcoin

With liquidity pressure on small and medium-sized banks, the Fed did literally provide support with tangible action. The two charts below show the usage rate of the central bank's discount window and the changes in the Fed's balance sheet. It can be seen that on Mar. 15th, the Fed discount window usage exceeded that of the 2008 financial crisis. In terms of changes in the Fed's balance sheet, we can do a simple arithmetic problem here. Starting from Apr.22, the Fed began to reduce its balance sheet while raising interest rates, tightening whole liquidity in the market. In the past 11 months, it has decreased from the highest asset of $8.96 trillion to $8.33 trillion, a total reduction of $625.8 billion. However, in the two-week period from Mar. 7 to 21, it increased rapidly by $391.5 billion in assets. This means that the scale of reduction in the Fed's balance sheet over the past year has been reversed half in just over a week.

The newly released liquidity to alleviate the pressure on small and medium-sized banks has naturally had an impact on the capital market. After March 10, cryptocurrencies, gold, and the Nasdaq all reacted positively to the newly released liquidity. Bitcoin broke through the resistance level of $25,000 and rose as high as $28,937. During this period, Bitcoin demonstrated more of its attributes as a safe-haven asset, with a market capitalization ratio of over 43%, which can be said to have shown a blood-sucking market trend from altcoins.

Continued Hawkish Tone of Fed and Limited Scope of Bank Rescues Bring About General Correction in Risk Assets

Facing the widespread questioning of interest rate hikes and financial stability issues, the Fed's FOMC meeting in March arrived. The odds of whether or not to raise interest rates changed significantly several times before the meeting. After the release of CPI in February and before the small banks crisis, the probability of a 50bp rate hike rose to over 70%. After the small banks crisis, the odd of a 25bp rate hike or no rate hike increased sharply. At this point, it was a relatively difficult choice for the Fed. If CPI growth is only the focus , it is highly likely to continue with a 50bp rate hike, which would further tighten liquidity in the financial market and may lead to more unexpected risks. If interest rates are not raised at all, it may lead the market to speculate whether there are more issues on financial stability that have not yet been disclosed. On March 22, the FOMC meeting decided to raise interest rates by 25bp, which met market expectations. However, during the subsequent press conference, Chairman Powell's attitude caused the market to reverse again. When Powell mentioned that the liquidity problems of small and medium-sized banks had led to credit tightening and had achieved some of the effects of rate hikes, the market still thought as a little dovish. However, Powell quickly reiterated that all voting committee members believed that there was no need to talk about interest rates decrease this year, and US Treasury Secretary Yellen almost simultaneously issued a statement saying that it was unlikely to expand deposit insurance in the near future, US stocks and Bitcoin fell consequently.

Some Predictions

Recently, from the technical analysis, S&P 500 has tested support at the 200-day moving average and has shown a trend of lower highs, while the capital market lacks new momentum. In terms of the cryptocurrency market, the continuous regulatory news from the US has also affected market sentiment, and the uncertainty of short-term volatility or correction is still high and need more time to clarify.

Disclaimer

All the contents of this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice for anyone. The sources of information contained in this article are considered reliable but are not guaranteed to be accurate and complete. The information and recommendations contained herein are subject to change without notice, and no responsibility is assumed for any direct or indirect losses or other losses related to the use of the materials contained herein.

自美联储22年3月开始加息以来，一年时间内从0利率加息至4.75%-5.00%，这样的快速加息节奏在过往也是很少见的。 在3月之前加息确实遏制了通胀的速度，并给美股、加密货币等风险资产带来较大负面冲击，然而在此次中小银行流动性危机出现之前，美联储尚未看到其他对经济的负面影响。而回看每一次加息，势必会有一定杀伤力（break something），而这个月接连爆出的中小银行的危机归根结底主要还是来自于美联储的持续加息。

对于银行来说，储户的储蓄是银行资产负债表中的负债；银行对外的投资或者发放的贷款是资产。从负债端来看，如果有持续的现金流出压力，或者有更高收益选择（加息下更高收益的国债），势必带来银行存款的流出，也就是银行负债端的偿债兑付。从资产端来看，对外的投资，例如MBS或者国债等投资品类，在整体加息环境下，市值持续下行，带来账上大量浮亏，如果再叠加现金流紧缺，而需要亏损卖出资产端持有的债券，导致资产缩水，势必带来更多储户的集中兑付。总结下来，加息同时影响到了银行的资产端和负债端。所有的银行都是加杠杆运行的，按照巴塞尔协议的资本充足率要求，最高可以有12.5倍的杠杆，任何一家现金流不足够的银行都不能幸免于兑付压力的难，于是带来了更大范围的中小银行bank run。

中小银行的流动性压力，再加上系统重要性银行瑞士信贷的危机，带来市场的普遍恐慌情绪，标普500在3月9日、10日连续跌破长期以来的200日支撑，直至3月12日美财政部、美联储、FDIC宣布紧急救助方案BTFP，才使得美股在13日开盘后重新回到支撑线附近。

美联储等机构联手救助银行，避险情绪带动黄金和比特币同频的上涨

在面对中小银行流动性压力，美联储确实是用实际行动支持了，下面两图分别是央行折现窗口的使用率和美联储资产负债表的变化。可以看到，在今年3月15日，折现窗口的使用率甚至超过了08年金融危机。而美联储资产负债表的变化，这里可以做个简单的算术题，去年4月开始美联储在加息的同时开始缩减资产负债表，对市场收紧流动性。在过去11个月时间里，从最高8.96万亿美元资产，压降到8.33万亿美元资产，共缩减了6258亿美元资产。而在3月7号至21号这短短两周时间里，又快速增加了3915亿美元资产。也就是说，美联储资产负债表在近一年的时间里收缩的规模，在不到2周时间里已经还回去一半多了。

为缓解中小型银行压力而新增释放的流动性，自然对资本市场造成了影响。在3月10号之后，加密货币、黄金、纳斯达克都对于新增释放的流动性做出正反馈。比特币更是快速突破前期2.5万美元的阻力位，最高升至$28937。在这段时间中，比特币更多凸显了避险资产的属性，在加密货币市值占有率突破43%高位，可以说是呈现了对小币种的吸血行情。

继续加息的鹰派论调和控制银行救助范围，带来风险资产的普遍回调

在市场普遍质疑加息带来金融稳定性问题的背景下，迎来了美联储3月份的FOMC会议。会前对于是否加息的概率几次显著变更，在2月份CPI释放之后，中小银行危机出现之前，利率掉期显示加息50bp的概率一度升至70%以上；而在中小银行危机出现之后，加息25bp或者不加息的概率猛增。此时，对于美联储来说是相对两难的抉择。如果单独考虑CPI增速，那大概率将继续加息50bp，同时带来金融市场流动性的进一步紧缩，可能会带来更多意料不到的危机事件发生。如果完全不加息，可能让市场猜测，是否有更大范围的挑战金融稳定性的危机尚未披露。直至3月22日，FOMC会议决议加息25bp，符合市场预期。然而，在此后的记者招待会上，鲍威尔主席的态度让市场情绪再次反转。当Powell提到，目前中小银行的流动性问题带来信贷收紧，实现了部分加息的作用时，市场还是认为偏鸽的。然而，很快鲍威尔强调全体票委一致认为今年没有减息的必要，叠加美财政部主席耶伦几乎同时发出了扩大存款保证近期可能性不大后，美股、比特币同频下跌。

后市预测

近日，技术面上，美股标普500回测200日均线支撑，呈现了高点逐渐走低的态势；消息面上，资本市场缺乏新的动能。加密货币市场方面，美国不断披露的监管消息，也影响了市场情绪，短期内震荡或回调的概率依然不小，还需注意控制风险。

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Signature Bank (SBNY) was founded in 2001, and its main business is to provide private banking services for high net worth individuals and their related business. Starting in the first quarter of 2018, SBNY added cryptocurrency business services, providing access to fiat banking services for regulated stablecoin issuers, exchanges, custodians, cryptocurrency miners, institutional traders, and others. According to its annual report released last year, by the end of 2022, its total assets were $110.3 billion, and customer deposits (liabilities) were $88.5 billion.

Looking at the liabilities side, after FTX crashed down in 2022 Q4, SBNY management intentionally reduced its risk exposure in the cryptocurrency business, proactively reduced the business proportion, and decreased customer deposits by $12.39 billion. The final cryptocurrency customer deposits in Q4 2022 were $17.7 billion, accounting for 20% of all customer deposits. From the analysis of the concentration of the bank's assets and liabilities, this business proportion is relatively reasonable. From the range of services provided, SBNY does not invest in, hold, or custody cryptocurrency, only engages in USD deposit business, and can conduct 7*24 real-time USD transfer transactions through the Signet system internally established by SBNY. Unlike Silvergate Bank, SBNY also does not provide loan business with cryptocurrency as collateral and is relatively conservative in its business direction. According to the financial data of the 23 Q1 report released by SBNY earlier this month, the total customer deposits were $826 million, and the cryptocurrency-related customer deposits were about $144 million, accounting for about 17.43%; the deposit decrease was mainly due to the decrease of cryptocurrency-related customer deposits by $1.51 billion. This is partly due to the volatility of the cryptocurrency market itself, and partly due to SBNY's increased efforts to control the overall proportion of cryptocurrency business deposits.

Looking at the assets side, SBNY's disclosed data on asset adequacy ratios shows that its core capital adequacy ratios are 11.20%, and its risk-based capital adequacy ratio is 12.32%, with a leverage ratio of 8.79%, meeting the requirements of Basel III for bank risk assets, and its overall assets are at a relatively healthy level. Looking at the details of the assets side, short-term investments were $17.4 billion, accounting for 14.98%. Under extreme circumstances, even if all cryptocurrency deposits are withdrawn, liquidity can be met.

If we compared Silvergate Bank as the "bad student" by its aggressiveness for business risk, then Signature Bank can be considered the "good student" that adheres to regulations and adjusts its business focus in a timely manner when it sees changes in the market. Therefore, if we look at the business analysis, Signature Bank will not directly face liquidity risks due to the impact of the cryptocurrency market. However, at this time, the US Treasury Department, seeing Silvergate Bank as the most aggressive cryptocurrency-friendly bank, caused adverse effects on the market under the background of interest rate hikes, and decided to close Signature Bank's business for caution.

This may be due to two reasons: first, to prevent fluctuations in cryptocurrency business by affecting Signature Bank's other business customers and then extending to the traditional banking market, for in which SBNY's overall business volume is not small; second, considering the recent regulatory rules formulated by the US from Congress, the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department to the SEC and CFTC for the cryptocurrency industry, this may be a punishment for banks that have already engaged in cryptocurrency business, and a signal that regulators will soon introduce a more comprehensive and reasonable regulatory framework with strong measures for every link between the cryptocurrency market itself and the traditional financial market.

Regarding Silvergate Bank and Silicon Valley Bank, as I mentioned in my previous report, both collapsed under the dual effects of unstable deposits on the liability side and floating losses on long-term debt on the asset side in the background of interest rate hikes, leading to a liquidity crisis caused by mass withdrawals. Therefore, there are rumors in the market that the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve this month is likely to slow down its interest rate hike, and the probability of a 50bp interest rate hike has now dropped to 0. The US stock futures market has seen a small increase, and the distrust of stablecoin or fiat trading pairs has led to a simultaneous increase in the cryptocurrency market. However, looking at the timing of the uncertain cryptocurrency regulatory measures and the forthcoming release of CPI data, it may be too early to judge that the cryptocurrency market resume bullish.

References:

Signature Bank 2022 Annual Report: [https://investor.signatureny.com/pme/press-releases/news-details/2023/Signature-Bank-Releases-2022-Form-10-K/default.aspx]

Signature Bank 2023 Q1 Report: [https://investor.signatureny.com/pme/press-releases/news-details/2023/Signature-Bank-Issues-Mid-Quarter-Financial-Update-for-Its-2023-First-Quarter/default.aspx]

Disclaimer:

The entire contents of this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice to anyone. The sources of the information contained herein are believed to be reliable, but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed, and the information and advice contained herein is subject to change without notice. We assume no responsibility for any direct or indirect losses or any other losses related to the use of the materials contained in this article.

Signature Bank（SBNY）成立于2001年，其主要业务在为高净值人群提供私人银行服务，2018年一季度开始SBNY增加了加密业务服务，为包括受监管的稳定币发行方、交易所、托管方、加密货币矿工、机构交易者等提供接入法币银行服务。根据上年年报披露，截止2022年末，总资产1103亿美元、客户存款（负债）885亿美元。

从负债端来看，2022年四季度，在FTX暴雷事件后，SBNY管理层有意降低其在加密业务上的风险敞口，主动下降业务占比，减少了123.9亿美元客户存款，最终22年Q4加密客户存款为177亿美元，占全部客户存款占比为20%。从银行资产负债表集中度分析来看，这个业务占比相对合理。从提供的业务范围来看，SBNY并没有投资、持有、或托管加密货币的业务，仅限于美元存款业务，并且可以通过SBNY内部搭建的Signet系统进行7*24的实时美元转账交易。与Silvergate Bank不同，SBNY也不提供以加密货币为抵押品的贷款业务，在业务方向上相对也是保守的。在本月初，SBNY披露的23年一季报财务数据来看，全部客户存款8.26亿美元，加密资产相关客户存款约1.44亿美元，约占17.43%；存款下降主要是由于加密资产相关客户存款减少了15.1亿美元。这一方面是由于加密货币市场自身波动；另一方面也是SBNY加大力度控制加密业务存款的整体占比。

从资产端来看，SBNY披露的资产充足率数据显示，核心一级资本充足率11.20%，风险资本充足率12.32%，杠杆率8.79%，满足巴塞尔协议III对银行风险资产的要求，整体资产也是处于比较健康的水平。从资产端明细来看，短期投资174亿美元，占比14.98%。极端情况下，即使全部加密存款全部申请提现，流动性也可以满足。

从业务健康程度来看，如果说Silvergate Bank是风险偏好激进的“坏学生”，那么Signature Bank可以被认为是恪守监管，看到市场风向变化及时调整业务重点的“乖学生”。 因此，如果从业务分析来看，Signature Bank并不会直接因为加密货币市场的影响导致流动性挤兑风险。然而此时，美国财政部在看到Silvergate作为最激进的加密友好银行，在加息背景下对市场带来的恶劣影响，而决定保守起见将Signature Bank关闭业务，这背后可能有两方面原因：一是，担心加密业务波动变化影响到Signature Bank其他业务客户，再继而延展到传统银行市场中，毕竟SBNY的整体业务体量不小；二是，联想到最近美国方面从国会、美联储、财政部到SEC、CFTC不断提出的对加密行业制定监管规则来看，这有可能是对已经涉及加密业务银行的惩戒，以及监管将要出台更全面审慎监管框架的一个信号，未来必然会将涉及所有加密市场本身、加密市场到传统金融市场之间传导的每个环节，出台完整、深入、合理地有力监管措施。

关于Silvergate Bank 和Silicon Valley Bank，在此前我的报告中写到，都是在加息背景下，负债端存款不稳定，资产端长债浮亏的双重作用下导致客户不信任大量挤兑带来的流动性危机。因此，市场也有传言认为，美联储本月FOMC会议加息很有可能放缓加息，50bp的加息概率目前已下降到0，美股期货市场出现小幅上涨，叠加稳定币或法币的交易对不信任，带来加密市场同期上涨。然而，在加密监管措施仍未确定，CPI数据即将出炉的时间点来看，认为加密市场“牛回”的判断可能还为时尚早。

参考资料：

Signature Bank 2022年年报：https://investor.signatureny.com/pme/press-releases/news-details/2023/Signature-Bank-Releases-2022-Form-10-K/default.aspx

Signature Bank 2023年一季度报：https://investor.signatureny.com/pme/press-releases/news-details/2023/Signature-Bank-Issues-Mid-Quarter-Financial-Update-for-Its-2023-First-Quarter/default.aspx

免责声明

本文所载的全部内容仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。本文所载资料的来源被认为是可靠的，但不保证其准确性和完整性，也不保证所包含信息和建议不会发生任何变更，并且不对使用本文所包含的才材料产生的任何直接或间接损失或与此相关的其他任何损失承担任何责任。

Silvergate Capital Corporation (SI), once one of the only three crypto-friendly banks in the US (the other two are Signature Bank and Metropolitan Bank), has played a significant role in the circulation of fiat and cryptocurrencies between institutions and exchanges. It has the highest proportion of crypto business and the most aggressive business development in this area. During the bull round for cryptocurrencies, Silvergate was one of the most attractive stocks in US stock market, reaching a high of $239.26 in November 2021, up from its initial public offering price of $12.75 per share in November 2019. However, in 2022, following the FTX scandal, the market speculated that Silvergate had business dealings with FTX and Alameda, causing a large number of traditional funds, including Soros Fund, to short SI, making it the most shorted stock in the US. Recently, Silvergate announced a delay in submitting its 2022 audit report to the SEC, citing significant risk to its business continuance, causing its stock price to plummet to an all-time low of $5.77. A large number of crypto-compliant institutions have stated that they will stop doing business with Silvergate. In this article, the author analyzes the reasons why SI's business is on the brink of collapse and reveals the truth behind the data by examining SI's 2021 annual report, unaudited financial data for 2022, and multiple public documents.

From SI's disclosed annual report, SI's main sources of revenue come from the following:

• Absorbing user deposits at zero cost, depositing them into other banks, and earning interest rate spreads.

• Investing in low-risk fixed-income products, such as mortgage-backed securities (MBS), to earn investment income.

• Providing 7*24 fiat-to-crypto and crypto-to-fiat trading for its own customer base through its self-built SEN network and charging transaction fees.

• Providing USD loans collateralized by BTC to institutions within the crypto industry through its platform SEN Leverage and earning interest income.

Before 2022, along with the overall development of the crypto industry, SI's revenue continued to grow rapidly. From 2017 to 2021, SI's net income was $7.64 million, $22.33 million, $24.84 million, $26.03 million, and $75.51 million, respectively. In the first three quarters of 2022, SI had a cumulative net income of $40.6 million, 108 exchange customers, and 1,069 institutional customers, but suffered a net loss of $1 billion for the full year. The main business losses occurred in the fourth quarter of 2022 after the FTX scandal. The rest of this article analyzes each of SI's revenue sources.

Firstly, as the largest crypto-friendly bank in the US, SI has always been proud of its ability to absorb huge amounts of USD demand deposits from customers at zero cost, which means that customers can withdraw these demand deposits from SI at any time. For a bank, customer deposits are liabilities, and the financial data below shows that customers' USD deposits were withdrawn by $4.706 billion in the fourth quarter. It can be seen that although SI disclosed that its business dealings with FTX were limited to deposits, customers did not see it that way.

As mentioned before, SI invests a small proportion of its customer deposits in other banks to earn interest rate spreads, while most of them are invested in fixed-income securities and issued USD loans to institutions through SEN Leverage. At the end of the third quarter of 2022, other bank deposits, investment securities, and SEN Leverage accounted for 9.09%, 80.79%, and 9.67% of SI's total assets, respectively. So, what assets do these investment securities include? As shown in the table below, these assets include real estate loans, commercial and industrial SEN loans, and bonds held to maturity.

In the fourth quarter of 2022, SI had to sell most of its investment securities to cope with large customer withdrawals, resulting in a significant unrealized loss. Here's an explanation. The debt-like bond products that SI invested in low-interest-rate conditions faced a decrease in face value as interest rates rose in 2022, resulting in an unrealized loss on its balance sheet. After selling it in a short period, this loss was realized in that period. As shown in the profit and loss statement below, this is the main reason for the $887 million loss in 2022.

In other words, SI invested short-term capital from customer deposits to relatively long-term securities or loans, leading to a liquidity crisis caused by users' withdrawals. In the fourth quarter of 2022, what other accidents happened to SI still need to wait for the annual report to SEC after the audit. As ordinary investors, what they are more concerned about is whether there are other institutions that may continue to collapse due to this. The public's attention has turned to MicroStrategy, a leveraged BTC holder who disclosed their application for SEN Leverage.

According to MicroStrategy's announcement in March 2022, its wholly-owned subsidiary MacroStrategy borrowed $205 million from Silvergate Bank through SEN Leverage. After reviewing this announcement and the detailed loan agreement, the author learned the following information. The initial Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratio for SEN is 25%, which means that customers need to pledge BTC worth four times the loan amount to apply for a loan. During the loan period, if the BTC price drops to less than twice the total pledged amount, that is, when the LTV is greater than 50%, the customer needs to supplement the pledged asset value to return to four times the loan balance, which is to reduce LTV to 25%. Based on the requirement of a 25% pledge rate and an average BTC price of $42,000 on March 20, MacroStrategy pledged at least 19,500 BTC and should have replenished the pledged assets when BTC fell to $21,000. If these pledged BTCs are sold off at once, it will indeed have a significant impact on mainstream exchanges with low liquidity and daily trading volumes around 10,000 BTC. Fortunately, in this loan agreement, SI can only sell the pledged BTC without informing the customer if the customer defaults. Judging from MicroStrategy's publicly disclosed data, it currently holds 132,000 BTC and obtained liquidity through selling BTC in the fourth quarter, with $50.86 million in cash on hand. Judging from the disclosed interest rate of about 6%, it pays about $1.02 million in SEN Leverage interest per month, and the probability of default is not too high.

SI's unaudited financial data for the fourth quarter of 2022 shows that the SEN Leverage balance was $335.8 million, which decreased to $301.7 million at the end of 2022. During the period of coping with large customer withdrawals in the fourth quarter, SI did not retrieve liquidity by reducing the size of SEN Leverage. From MicroStrategy's disclosed loan agreement, SI did not stipulate the clause of early repayment. Therefore, before SI discloses more annual report data, the impact on the overall crypto market's volatility is limited for now.

Reference:

1. Silvergate Bank 2021 Annual Report: https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001312109/000131210922000051/si-20211231.htm

2. Silvergate Bank 2022 Financial Data: https://ir.silvergate.com/news/news-details/2023/Silvergate-Capital-Corporation-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-2022-Results/default.aspx

3. MicroStrategy's wholly-owned subsidiary MacroStrategy's loan agreement with Silvergate Bank for $205 million: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312522087494/d312252dex41.htm

4. MicroStrategy's 2022 Financial Data: https://www.microstrategy.com/en/investor-relations/press/microstrategy-announces-fourth-quarter-2022-financial-results_02-02-2023

Disclaimer:

All information contained in this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice to anyone. The source of the information contained in this article is believed to be reliable.

Silvergate Capital Corporation（SI） 作为曾经全美唯三的加密友好银行（另外两家分别是Signature Bank和Metropolitan Bank），也是加密业务体量占比最高、业务发展最为激进的银行，扮演了机构和交易所之间法币与加密货币流通的重要角色。在加密货币市场整体还处于牛市时，Silvergate也曾经是美股市场最受关注的标的之一。从2019年11月上市初的$12.75每股，一度紧随BTC走势，在21年11月最高涨至$239.26。在22年SI股价逐渐走低，FTX暴雷事件之后，市场普遍猜测Silvergate与FTX和Alameda之间的业务往来，大量的传统基金，包括索罗斯的基金，加入做空SI，使得该股票一度成为全美做空最多的股票。近期，在Silvergate发出公告延迟向SEC提交22年审计报告，并称其业务有相当大的风险不可持续经营，更使得股价快速下滑至历史新低$5.77。大量的加密合规机构纷纷表示停止与Silvergate的合作关系。笔者查阅了SI已经披露的21年年报、22年未经审计的财务数据及多份公开资料，在本文中分析了其业务濒临倒闭的原因，呈现数据背后的真相。

从SI已经披露的年报来看，SI主要业务收入来自以下几方面：

• 零息成本吸收用户存款，转存至其他银行，赚取息差；

• 投资低风险的固定收益产品，例如房贷抵押债券（MBS），赚取投资收益；

• 通过自建的SEN网络，为自有客户群提供7*24法币和加密货币之间的交易，收取交易手续费；

• 通过平台SEN Leverage，为加密行业内机构提供以BTC为质押品的美元贷款，收取利息收入。

在2022年之前，伴随着加密行业整体发展，SI的业务收入持续快速增长。2017年至2021年，SI每年净收入分别为764万、2233万、2484万、2603万和7551万美元。2022年前三季度累计净收入4060万美元、交易所客户数108、机构客户数1069，然而全年净亏损10亿美元。主要业务亏损发生在FTX暴雷后的22年Q4，下面从SI的业务收入来源逐一分析。

首先，SI作为全美业务体量占比最大的加密友好银行，在过往财报中一直引以为傲他们可以零息成本吸收用户的巨额美元活期存款，也就是说客户可以随时提取在SI的这些活期存款。作为银行来说，客户存款属于银行的负债，从下面的财务数据可以看出，Q4客户提取美元存款达47.06亿美元。可以看出，尽管SI在FTX暴雷后披露和他们的业务往来仅限于存款，但用户并不这样认为。

前面提到，SI将客户存款的美元一小部分存在其他银行赚取息差，而大部分用于投资固定收益等证券获取投资收益，还有一部分通过SEN Leverage发放美元贷款给机构。22年三季度末，其他银行存款和投资证券及SEN Leverage这三者占SI全部资产的比例分别为9.09%、80.79%和9.67%。那么这些投资的证券都包括哪些资产呢？如下表所示，这类资产包括房地产贷款、SEN机构贷款（Commercial and industrial）、和持有至到期的债券。

22年Q4，SI为了应付大额客户提款，只能卖出大部分的投资证券，并确认大量浮亏。这里解释下，SI在低利率环境下投资的类债券产品，在22年整体加息背景下，债券面值缩水，体现为账面浮亏。在短时间卖出后，即当期确认这部分亏损。从下面的损益表上可以看出，这是构成22年全年亏损的主要原因，共计亏损8.87亿美元。

也就是说，SI使用客户存款的短周期资金，投资了相对较长周期的证券或发放贷款，在面临客户提款需求，只能割肉卖出债券。换句话说，又是一个短借长贷、期限错配导致用户挤兑提款的流动性事故。22年四季度，SI还发生了什么其他的事故还需要等到审计后的年报披露再看。作为普通投资人，更关心的还是是否还有其他机构可能会因此而继续暴雷呢？大众的目光转向了曾公布申请SEN Leverage的杠杆囤币大户，MicroStrategy。

根据MicroStrategy（MSTR）在22年3月份的公告中，其全资子公司MacroStrategy通过SEN Leverage借款2.05亿美元。笔者查阅了这份公告及详细的借款合同，了解到如下一些信息。SEN初始质押率LTV（贷款金额/质押物价值）为25%，也就是说客户需要抵押价值4倍于贷款金额的BTC申请贷款。贷款存续期间，如果质押品BTC价格下滑至总质押金额小于贷款金额的2倍，也就是LTV大于50%时，客户需要补充质押品价值回到贷款余额的4倍，也就是降低LTV至25%。按照质押率25%的要求，以及3月20日BTC平均价格$42,000来看，MSTR至少质押了1.95万BTC，在BTC下降至$21,000时应该已经补充过质押品。如果一次性卖出这些质押的BTC，确实会对目前流动性较低，日交易量在1万BTC附近的主流交易所构成较大冲击。不过庆幸的是，在这份借款合同中，SI在客户发生违约时才可以不经告知即卖出质押的BTC。以MSTR披露的公共数据来看，现有13.2万BTC，并且22年Q4还通过短期买卖BTC获得流动性，账上现金还有5086万美元，以披露的利率大约在6%左右来看，短时间内每月支付SEN Leverage利息100万美元左右，违约概率不算太高。

在SI未经审计的22年Q4财务数据中显示，SEN Leverage 余额$335.8million; 2022年末，SEN Leverage余额降至$301.7million。在四季度应付大额客户提款期间，SI也没有通过大量下降SEN Leverage规模来收回流动性。而从MicroStrategy披露的借款合同来看，SI并没有约定提前还款的条款。因此，在SI没有披露更多年报数据之前，暂时看对整体加密市场的波动影响有限。

参考资料：

1. Silvergate Bank 2021年年报：https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001312109/000131210922000051/si-20211231.htm

2. Silvergate Bank 2022年财务数据：https://ir.silvergate.com/news/news-details/2023/Silvergate-Capital-Corporation-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-2022-Results/default.aspx

3. MicroStrategy的全资子公司MacroStrategy向Silvergate Bank借款$205million协议：https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312522087494/d312252dex41.htm

4. MicroStrategy 2022年财务数据：https://www.microstrategy.com/en/investor-relations/press/microstrategy-announces-fourth-quarter-2022-financial-results_02-02-2023

免责声明

本文所载的全部内容仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。本文所载资料的来源被认为是可靠的，但不保证其准确性和完整性，也不保证所包含信息和建议不会发生任何变更，并且不对使用本文所包含的才材料产生的任何直接或间接损失或与此相关的其他任何损失承担任何责任。

1. Feb FOMC rate decisions

Feb 1st, Fed released rate decisions for Feb’s FOMC, increasing rate by 25bps to 4.5%-4.75% unexpectedly, signaled it was on track to do so again at its meeting next month and warned not to speculate regarding a rate pause. Investors welcomed the decision, all three indexes ending the day in positive territory. Nasdaq closed up 2%, while bitcoin rallied 2.62% on the same day.

2. Job growth accelerated in Jan, unexpectedly strong

U.S. job growth accelerated at the start of the year as employers added a robust 517,000 jobs and pushed the unemployment rate to a 53-year low. The unexpectedly strong hiring gains raise means higher servicing cost for CPI. Given other factors on CPI, shelters and motors picking up in both deals and prices, retailers making new purchases for restock, CPI is most likely to remain sticky, which will prompt a more aggressive response by Fed to tame the inflation.

3. 2yr vs 10yr treasury yield spread inverted, combined SEC enforcement in crypto market

On February 9th the yield curve on the US two-year and benchmark 10-year Treasury notes inverted at its worst since 1981, raising the alarm of a recession in the next year or so. At the same time, the Fed continued its hawkish rhetoric to maintain rates higher for longer. The rising risk of a hard landing combined with the continued hawkish strategy of raising interest rates has spooked markets. On the same day, the three major US stock indexes opened lower, falling for the second day in a row. The decline in U.S. stocks led to cautious for risky assets. Below is the spread between 10yr and 2yr yields, and the shaded area indicates recession. As you can see, each time the yield spread narrowed down to inverted, there was a recession. That is why inverted yields have become one of the most important indicators for predicting recessions.

On the same day, SEC announced charges against crypto exchange Kraken on Thursday, alleging its offering of a crypto staking-as-a-service program amounted to offering unregistered securities products in the U.S. To settle the charges, Kraken is paying $30 million and shutting all of its U.S. staking services. The rumors of US regual spread, such as banning on retailers purchasing crypto. Although regulators haven’t clarified, the rumors will become the shorts’ weapon to affect market. Since the beginning of Yr 23, bitcoin rebounced from $16,531 to highest $24,262 (+46.75%), boosting crypto market cap over 1 trillion USD. Some altcoins also suprised market, like APT, Matic, OP, GRT etc. After several days rising, bitcoin and cryptos shock around, when longs realized profits. The on-chain data also shows quantitative stable coins flows out from exchange platform.

To sum up, lack of substantial positive events, uncertainty of risky assets represented by US equities, more enforcement in cryptos from regulators, and technical trends are yet to be confirmed, investors need to be highly alert to changes in market risk appetite. To protect profits and lower positing size will be better compared to holding. Be patient to make decisions until relatively stable.

1. 美联储2月FOMC议息决议

2月1日，美联储2月议息会议决议，毫不意外的加息25bp至4.5%-4.75%，暗示下月将继续加息25bp，并警告市场对于停止加息的预测，维持更高利率更长时间。市场对于这样符合一致预期的决议反响乐观，三大股指收盘时均为上涨。纳斯达克指数收涨2%，同日，比特币收涨2.62%。

2. 23年1月非农就业数据意外爆表

2月3日美国新增非农就业517,000，远超市场预期，失业率为53年来最低水平。非农就业数据的意外爆表，意味着强劲的就业市场将会带来更高的服务端成本。考虑影响CPI的其他几方面因素，包括：房屋和汽车市场成交和价格回暖、零售商在年初开始新增采购补库存等，CPI仍然有可能保持黏滞性，使得控制通胀需要维持更高利率更长时间。

3. 美债长短端收益率严重倒挂，叠加美证监会对加密市场的新监管措施

2月9日美国2年期、基准10年期国债收益率曲线创1981年来最严重倒挂程度，发出未来一年左右将衰退的警报。而此时，美联储继续维持鹰派言论，坚持继续加息抗通胀的论调。经济硬着陆风险攀升叠加持续鹰派加息策略，造成市场恐慌。当日，美股三大股指高开低走，连跌两日，道指创两周新低，纳指回吐1%+涨幅收跌1%。美股下跌带动市场对于风险资产的偏好趋于谨慎。如下，为美债10年期与2年期收益率差价，灰色部分为经济衰退时间。可以看到，每次美债长短端收益率差缩小至倒挂后不久，都会遭遇经济衰退。这也就是为什么收益率倒挂成为预测经济衰退的重要衡量指标之一。

同日，SEC宣布对于加密交易所Kraken提供的非注册的证券服务，即加密质押服务，处以3千万美元的罚款。市场普遍传言，SEC即将开始美版“94”对于加密货币的监管措施，例如禁止向散户销售加密货币等。尽管监管机构并未有明确指示，但在监管未实锤之前，这些传言都可能成为空方趁机发力的烟雾弹。在比特币自23年开年以来，从$16,531连续上涨反弹至最高 $24,262（+46.75%)，带动加密货币市场整体市值回升至1万亿美元以上。各小币种表现也可圈可点，APT、Matic、OP、GRT等涨幅喜人。但连续上涨多日，以比特为首的主流币种自1月21日开始横盘震荡，持续多日总会有多方获利了结。而近期链上数据显示，大量稳定币从交易所流出，或许也是多方撤退的迹象。

那么，在市场缺乏具有实质影响力的利好消息/事件、以美股代表的风险资产高度不确定性、监管机构可能对加密货币进一步推出严厉的监管措施、技术面还待确认趋势的时候，投资者需要高度警惕市场风险偏好的变化，降低仓位保护利润策略的成功概率，将高于激进进攻而高仓位持仓的策略。等待市场相对稳定后，再决定方向不迟。

In Q4 of 2022, the GDP growth in the United States was 2.9%, better than the expected 2.6%. However, when analyzing GDP data in detail, it is found that the growth was mainly driven by inventory investment, net exports, and government spending, while consumption and fixed investment both slowed down. A better measure of domestic demand, Final sales to private domestic purchasers, only increased by 0.2%, the lowest since Q2 of 2020, showing that the US economy is losing momentum. Last week's unemployment data showed that the number of first-time applicants for unemployment assistance decreased by 6,000, indicating that the job market remains tight.

However, the continued easing of inflation pressures is still good news. This trend was further confirmed by the December PCE data released on Friday (Jan. 27th). PCE is a personal consumption index that the Federal Reserve pays more attention to and represents the price index of consumer direct payments. In December of last year, the PCE fell by 0.2% compared to previous month, also the second consecutive month of declining consumer index since last year, and down 0.3% after adjusting for inflation, in line with market expectations. The fact that most American families still reduced their consumption spending during the fourth holiday season also shows the trend of economic growth slowing down.

As mentioned above, since the beginning of Jan. 2023, various economic data has shown a slowing of economic growth, a reduction in consumer spending, and a easing of inflation pressures, making a soft landing of the economy more likely. This week, the three major US stock indexes experienced slight adjustments and continued to rebound, with the S&P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones indexes rising 2.47%, 4.71%, and 1.81% respectively. Notably, the NASDAQ index has technically broken out of a double bottom and risen above its 200-week moving average. Meanwhile, BTC, which is highly correlated with the NASDAQ index, rose slightly by 0.92% last week and is operating above its 250-week moving average. Given that in December, many investors heavily sold their positions for tax loss benefits, and then re-bought those positions in early Jan, this has led to a rise at the beginning of the year. It is expected that in the short term, the direction of the market will continue to fluctuate within a range, until it is stimulated by clear policies or event news. The improvement in inflation data is still something to look forward to, and it is expected to have a positive impact on the policy direction of the next FOMC meeting. Currently, according to CME data, the probability of a 25bp interest rate hike in February has risen to 94.3%.

The cryptocurrency market value has risen above one trillion, with BTC up 44% from the beginning of the year to its highest point and currently operating between the 250-week and 200-week MA, still in a rebound trend of mean reversion. ETH, on the other hand, has risen 41% from the beginning of the year to its highest point, performing slightly worse than BTC. In addition, the new blockchain Aptos has performed impressively, developed based on Move and led by the original developers of the Facebook’s Libra project, it has higher scalability, security, and low-cost usage compared to others. After its launch, it fell to its lowest point of $3.07 from $10.21 in 2 months, but since the beginning of the year, it has rapidly risen 6.64 times. However, it is worth noting that a large amount of APT has been transferred from the developer's wallet to the exchange wallet, and there may be significant selling pressure in the short term, so be cautious when chasing high returns.

2022年Q4美国GDP增长2.9%，好于预期的2.6%。但分析GDP细节数据会发现，增长主要由库存投资、净出口和政府支出推动，而真正反映经济动力的消费、固定投资均放缓。更好衡量内需的私人国内购买者最终销售（Final sales to private domestic purchasers）仅增长0.2%，位2020年二季度以来最低，显示美国经济增长正失去动力。上周失业率数据显示，首次申请失业救助人数下降6000人，显示就业市场依然紧俏。

不过，通胀压力持续放缓仍然是好消息。此后周五（1月27日）公布的12月PCE数据更确认了这一趋势。PCE（personal consumer expenditure）个人消费指数，是美联储更注重的通胀指数，代表了消费者直接支付的价格指数。去年12月的PCE环比下降0.2%，也是自去年数月来连续第二个月下降的消费指数，调整通胀后下跌0.3%，符合市场预期。在四季度感恩节、圣诞季美国多数家庭仍然削减了消费支出也显示了经济增速放缓的趋势。

以上，2023年1月开年以来，多个经济数据均显示了经济增速放缓、消费支出削减、通胀压力有所缓解，经济软着陆更有可能实现。本周美股三大股指经历小幅微调后持续反弹，标普500、纳斯达克和道琼斯指数本周分别上涨2.47%、4.71%和1.81%。值得注意的是，纳斯达克指数从技术形态来讲，已经走出双底，站上200周线。而和纳斯达克指数高度正相关的BTC，上周微涨0.92%，保持在250周线上运行。考虑到去年12月，投资人大量浮亏账户在年底确认亏损以获得税务优惠，在1月初将原有仓位补回，带来年初的一波上涨。预计在短期内，还将在波动区间选择方向，直至受到明确的政策或者事件消息刺激。值得期待的仍然是通胀数据的好转，预计将为下月FOMC会议的政策取向有积极的作用。目前，根据CME的数据推算，2月加息25bp的概率已升至94.3%。

加密货币市场市值已回升至1万亿以上，BTC自年初到最高已反弹44%，目前在250周和200周线间运行，仍在均值回归的反弹行情中。ETH自年初到最高已反弹41%，表现略逊于BTC。然后，新公链Aptos表现抢眼，基于Move语言开发的，由原Facebook Libra项目开发人员主导的，具有更高扩展性、安全性、低成本使用的新公链，上线后2个月持续下跌至去年末最低$3.07，此后自年初至今已快速上涨6.64倍。但需注意的是，开发者的钱包有大量APT转至交易所钱包，短期内可能会有较大抛压，追高注意风险。

Looking back at the cryptocurrency market in the past 3 years: Since March 2020, the unexpected outbreak of the epidemic has caused bad expectations for the future economy, causing various institutions to sell risky assets in exchange for cash flow, bringing about a plunge of the cryptocurrency market. This is the period when economic/earnings expectations have the most pronounced impact on the cryptocurrency market. After March 15, the Federal Reserve announced interest rate cuts and quantitative easing, which caused the cryptocurrency market to quickly bottom out and rise from that point; since then, the rise and fall of the cryptocurrency market has been closely related to liquidity and monetary policy. The cryptocurrency market peaked in November 2021 after the Federal Reserve announced it was considering raising interest rates to tighten liquidity to combat rising inflation.

At present, whether the Fed raises interest rates is mainly influenced by the domestic inflation index of the United States, namely CPI, Core CPI, PCE and etc.. The Federal Reserve has repeatedly mentioned in previous FOMC meetings in 2022 that curbing inflation is the primary goal, even at the expense of economic growth. As long as the CPI does not return to the 2% target, the Fed will continue to raise interest rates.However, as analyzed in my previous report, after the November CPI data showed inflation had peaked and the Fed signaled a slower pace of rate hikes, the market anticipated that the liquidity would ease and the rate hikes would not be the rapid and sharp pace of the past year, but revert to the traditional 25bp per hike. To sum up, the path of the inflation index affecting the cryptocurrency market is as follows: CPI index (decline) - Federal Reserve monetary policy (loosening/reduced interest rate hike) - liquidity (loosening) - cryptocurrency market (rising), and vice versa.

On January 12, the inflation index of the United States in December 2022 increased by 6.5% compared with the previous year, which met the consensus expectation of the market and further confirmed the market's previous expectation that the peak of inflation has passed.In terms of the breakdown of the CPI data, the decline was most significant due to the oil prices contribution, but the core services index continued to rise (mainly due to the increase in labor wages). Also, due to the lagging statistics of the housing index, the figure is still +0.8%, but the reality is that housing-related consumer prices are already falling, which means that this component will continue to lower the CPI on forward. After the data, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively, while the cryptocurrency market was even stronger, with Bitcoin and Ethereum up 5.5% and 2.8%, respectively, on Thursday. The chart below shows the hourly K-chart of Bitcoin after the release of the CPI data. You can also see the rapid increase in trading volume within one hour after the release of the data. Thursday's breakout of the 19,000 level also means that the market has fully recovered from the impact of the FTX collapse.

Due to the slowdown in CPI growth, probabilities that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in February rose to 96% from 77% a day prior. The target of this rate hikes will be above 5%. Considering the lag of CPI data and the relatively high level of CPI last year, CPI will continue to decline before June. Although the Fed may continue to raise interest rates, it is likely to maintain less interest rate hikes. Market liquidity Relatively loose will also support the continued recovery of the cryptocurrency market. In the short term, without major changes in regulation, or major risks in the industry, the cryptocurrency market will rebound further. In addition, given that the high correlation within crypto market and higher beta of those altcoins, some newly listed tokens like APT or FTX negatively affected tokens like SOL have risen rapidly. Please be careful about short positions.

回顾过去3年加密货币市场的历程：自2020年3月，疫情的意外发生对未来经济的恶劣预期，使各类机构首先将风险资产抛售换取现金流，带来加密货币市场的暴跌。这是经济/盈利预期对于加密货币市场的影响最显著的阶段。在3月15后美联储宣布降息和量宽，使得加密货币市场快速筑底攀升；此后，加密货币市场的涨跌与流动性及货币政策紧密相关。在2021年11月份，美联储宣布考虑加息收紧流动性，以对抗日益增长的通胀，加密货币市场也在此后见顶。

目前，影响美联储加息与否的主要是美国国内的通货膨胀指数，即CPI、Core CPI、PCE等。美联储在2022年历次FOMC会议中多次提及，遏制通胀是首要目标，甚至不惜牺牲经济增速，只要CPI没有回到2%的目标，美联储则会一直加息。但正如此前我的报告中分析，在去年11月CPI数据公布后，显示通胀已经见顶，美联储预示将放缓加息步伐，使得市场预见到流动性的紧张形势趋缓，加息幅度不再像过去一年快速大幅的节奏，而是恢复到传统的每次加息25bp。总结下，通货膨胀指数影响加密货币市场的路径为：CPI指数（下降）——美联储货币政策（宽松/加息幅度降低）——流动性（宽松）——加密货币市场（上涨），反之亦然。

1月12日公布的美国2022年12月的通货膨胀指数CPI较上年增加6.5%，符合市场一致预期，也进一步印证了市场此前预计的通胀高点已经过去。从CPI数据细分结构来看，本次下降幅度最大来自于石油价格的下降，但核心服务指数仍然在上涨（主要是由于劳动力工资的上涨）。另外，由于房屋指数的滞后统计，数据显示仍然是+0.8%，但实际情形是房屋相关消费价格已经在下降，也就是说这部分还将持续降低CPI指数。数据公布后，标普500、纳斯达克指数分别上涨0.3%和0.6%，而加密货币市场走势更加强劲，周四当天比特币和以太坊分别上涨5.5%和2.8%。下图为CPI数据公布后的比特币小时K线图，也可以看到公布数据后的一小时内交易量快速攀升。而周四比特突破19000的水平，也意味着完全收复了FTX崩溃后对市场造成的影响。

由于CPI增速的趋缓，市场对于下个月美联储议息会加息决议25bp的概率从此前的77%上升至96%，预计此轮加息终点应该在5%以上。考虑到CPI数据的一些滞后性，以及对标去年CPI较高水准，CPI在6月前将持续下降，尽管美联储仍然可能继续加息，但大概率将会维持小幅加息的节奏，市场流动性相对宽松，也会支持加密货币市场持续回暖。短期内如果没有监管的重大变化，或行业内没有重大风险，加密货币市场将会进一步反弹。另外，考虑到加密货币市场内部较高的相关性，和小币种更高的弹性，带动一些新上市的小币种如APT、FTX重要相关的SOL都快速上涨，短期内上涨较快，做空请慎重😂

In US, Nov’s CPI climbed 7.1% from a year ago, down sharply from 7.7% in Oct. The pace built on a trend of moderating price increases since June’s 9.1% peak. After that, US stock indexes climbed. The market believe that the trend of inflation is consistent with Fed’s target, which amplified dovish expectation. The the following FOMC decision on Wed, as expected, increases 50bp to 4.25-4.5%, smaller increments than before, and will see more traditional 25bps hike in future. However, Chairman Powell’s hawkish speech shows Fed is trying to determine how high to raise rates and no projected rates cuts until inflation down to 2%, which make markets retreated after it. Then comes Thursday’s retail sales and manufacturing, signals slowing economy. Retail spending decreased 0.6% compared to prior month; Manufacturing output declined 0.6%, the first drop since June. The recession and higher rates hikes result in more pessimistic.  Given the last quarter moving forward and tax loss trading, the US stock market went down to the level of Nov.

In Europe and England, following with Fed’s FOMC decision on Dec. 14th, ECB and BOE decided to add 50bps, matching the federal reserve in slowing the pace of increase as inflation edges lower. Inflation remains far too high and is projected to stay above the target for too long. ECB warned rates will need to “rise significantly” given a dramatic worsening in the inflation outlook and reduce its multitrillion-dollar bondholdings starting in March, by 15 billion euros, equivalent to $16 billion, a month on average at first. BOE decided to rise 50bps to 3.5%, caution about raising rates much higher while UK economy already in a recession. However, central banks are very willing to create a recession to beat inflation.

Back to crypto market, Binance with the largest trading volume appears to be suffering from a decline in liquidity. Market rumours circulated on December 12th that the US Department of Justice was considering prosecuting its executives for financial crimes, although Binance officials denied this, it triggered Binance users’ withdraw for FUD. According to Nansen, all the public addresses disclosed by Binance showed 69.5 billion a month ago, decreased to 54.7 billion on Dec. 15th. The crypto market continued to fall in the second half of the week, underperforming as U.S. stocks continued to fall and the industry raised concerns about whether top exchanges would be subject to legal compliance risks. As previously expected, the cryptocurrency market will remain in the bottom range when the macro liquidity is restricted to improve and risks are still exposed in the industry.

美国方面，周二公布了11月份CPI数据同比7.1%，继续低于10月份的7.7%，与6月份峰值9.1%相比，已形成了明显的通胀放缓趋势。数据公布以后，美股各指数应声上涨，市场认为美联储过去的紧缩政策已表现在暂缓的通胀增速上，鸽派预期再起。紧接着周三美联储宣布利率决议，符合市场预期的加息50bp至4.25%-4.5%，放缓了加息节奏，并预计未来仍以传统的每次25bp的方式加息。但同时，鲍威尔的鹰派发言，未来仍将保持加息更长的时间，终点利率尚不明确，让市场再度悲观。继而周四公布的零售和制造业数据，显示了经济在放缓：零售数据相比上月下降0.6%，是年内最大降幅；制造业产出下降0.6%，也是自今年6月来第一次下跌。经济预期衰退，美联储仍维持高位加息的态势，让市场表现出更大的悲观。叠加年内最后一次季末移仓，和为确认损失获得税务收益的交易，让市场继续下跌至11月初时的水平。

欧洲和英国方面，继美联储12月14日公布利率决议后，欧央行和英国央行在15日也分别公布了加息50bp的决议，与美联储放缓加息节奏保持一致。 通胀数据仍处在高位，并预计还将保持更长时间。鉴于此，欧央行警示利率还将显著增高以遏制通胀，并预计于明年3月开始陆续减持近万亿元的美元债券。英国央行此次加息50bp至3.5%，并暗示通胀预计还将长期处于历史高位，然而英国经济已显示处于衰退（already in a recession）。但对于央行来说，即使有经济衰退的风险也仍然需要达成遏制通胀的目的。尽管加息节奏入期放缓，但随之而来的鹰派发言都让市场对未来担忧。

回到加密市场，已坐拥全世界加密货币最大交易量的币安最近遭遇了大量的提现。市场传言，12月12日一篇报道称美国司法部正在考虑以金融犯罪起诉其高管，尽管此消息已被币安官方辟谣，但仍然带来用户FUD恐慌提现。根据币安公布的钱包等，一个月前还持有695亿美元资产，12月15日持有547亿美元资产。随着美股持续下跌，叠加行业内对头牌交易所是否会有法律合规风险的担忧，加密货币市场在本周后半周持续下跌，表现低迷。如前预计，在宏观政策环境没有限制改善，行业内仍然陆续暴露风险的敏感期，加密货币市场还将维持在底部区间震荡。

1. Slow the pace of interest rate increase, focus on final target range

   Participants agree that it would take longer time for the full effects of monetary restraint. Fed thought they should slow the pace of the future increase, 50bps increase will probably the outcome in Dec. There are some uncertainties about ultimate level of fed funds rate target range to anchor the inflation rate of 2%, while slowing the pace of rate raise.

2. Shrank liquidity of market will bring forward the volatility due to the tax payment

   Generally, traders will close some position due to the tax payment at the year end. For instance, some loss on book will be realized to gain the tax benefit in Dec. Given the limited liquidity of market, the year-end position adjustment will be planned ahead, which probably bring the downside pressure of those assets.

3. Tightening financial condition deteriorate economic outlook

   US GDP had increased at a moderate pace in 3rd quarter. Trade deficit narrowed and net exports contributed positively to real GDP growth, as net imports declined. It results from weakening foreign economic activity and weaker demand. Participants project that inflation would decline markedly over the next two years, while tightening financial conditions were seen as downside risk to real GDP. The staff viewed the possibility that economic will enter a recession.

Based on this meeting minutes, it can be inferred as below:

As mentioned before by Fed and future markets predicted, the target range will be above 5%. According to FOMC meeting calendar in 2023 and its slower pace of interest rate rise, there is a radical prediction, the interest rate raise will be halted earliest as the end of Jun or later in 3rd quarter 2023. Regarding when or whether the policy shift to easing, it still needs more data of GDP next year.

Obviously, the market performed relatively optimistic. S&P 500 closed at 4027, a little higher than Nov. 15th’s closing at 3991 as the correction began a week ago. From the long term perspective, US stock market has maintained its rebound trend. Crypto markets also recovered slightly yesterday after a two-week slump crushed by the FTX event.

1. 放慢加息进程，着眼最终利率目标区间

紧缩的货币政策对市场的影响，还需要更长时间来充分体现。美联储考虑放慢加息节奏，12月预计加息50bp。现阶段，委员们更多考虑的是，最终的利率目标区间为多少，以保证达到通胀目标，而非更快加息。

2. 市场低流动性将会使税务筹划的交易提前带来波动

通常在每年年末12月，会有基于税务筹划考虑的交易安排。比如，一些确定亏损的头寸可以先卖出实现亏损，使当年获得税务优惠。基于这样的税务筹划而安排的交易，在今年流动性较低的市场情形下，市场参与者们将可能会提前布局缴税安排，带来比往年较早发生的市场波动。也就是说，会卖出亏损的持仓，带来这部分资产更多的下跌动能。

3. 长期紧缩的货币环境可能带来明年经济衰退风险上升

GDP三季度增速放缓，净出口持续贡献了GDP增速，主要是源于海外经济增速受限，净进口降低。委员们普遍认为，未来两年通胀将显著下降，而过度紧缩的货币环境可能带来经济下行的风险。因此，明年经济衰退的风险显著上升。如果单纯从通胀角度来讲，在今年高通胀的基数水平下，明年通胀将会得到有效遏制，美联储将更多关注经济衰退的风险。

基于该会议决议，可以得出如下推断：

结合此前美联储曾经提到的、以及利率市场预计的，利率的最终目标区间将在5%以上。按照2023年FOMC会议安排，以及美联储提到过的放慢加息进程，那么在这里可以有个大胆的预测，加息最快将在明年二季度末或最晚三季度停止。货币政策是否转向、或者何时转向，还需要再确认明年经济是否确实出现衰退迹象。

显然，市场受到这样偏鸽派的政策导向，表现还是比较乐观的。昨日，标普500收盘价4027，略高于过去一周前（开始发生调整时），11月15日的收盘价3991。从长期趋势来看，美股市场保持了反弹趋势。加密货币市场在经历FTX事件长达2周的低迷之后，在昨天也略微有所回暖。