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Some real estate agents reported that in the past month, there have been varying degrees of rent stagnation or even reduction in both commercial and residential rental markets. Perhaps, this is another signal of the intensification of the downward trend in the property market.

The author once wrote in August this year that Hong Kong’s real estate is gradually entering a sensitive moment. On the one hand, the unit price of buildings has repeatedly reached new highs, on the other hand, the bargaining space of the second-hand real estate market is increasing, and large price reductions are frequent; What’s more, the transaction price in some areas has begun to be lower than the bank valuation, reflecting that the owners are willing to sell their buildings at a price lower than the market price.

But in less than three months, the real estate situation in Hong Kong has changed from “sensitive” to “in danger”. According to the economic report for the third quarter of 2018 issued by the Hong Kong government, the trading volume of the residential property market has decreased by about 24% from 18900 in the second quarter to 14413 in the third quarter, among which the trading volume of second-hand buildings has decreased from 13933 in the previous quarter to 9918.

Further comparison with the data of the rating and Valuation Department shows that the number of building transactions in October 2018 has decreased by 58% compared with may 2018, while the monthly transaction amount has decreased by 56%!

From the perspective of unofficial indicators, the Centa city leading index (CCL), which reflects the trend of second-hand property prices in Hong Kong, recently reported 180.4 points, down 1.28% on a weekly basis, the largest weekly decline since March 2016 (two and a half years). The latest index reflects the situation from October 22 to 28 and the market situation in the fourth week after the interest rate hike of local banks in Hong Kong. So far, the CCL index has fallen for seven weeks, down 3.3%. In particular, it is worth noting that in the past three weeks, the eight sub indexes of CCL have fallen comprehensively twice, which shows that the decline of second-hand property prices has accelerated.

In just a few months, what is the reason for the dramatic changes in the Hong Kong real estate market? From the analysis of various aspects, Hong Kong real estate is facing the following danger signals:

First, Hong Kong’s macro economy is slowing down gradually. According to the statistics released by the Hong Kong SAR Government in mid November, GDP grew by 2.9% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2018, further slowing down from 3.5% in the second quarter. The annual economic growth forecast was adjusted to 3.2% from the estimated 3-4% in the previous quarter.

The main reason for the economic slowdown is the impact of trade friction. Ou xixiong, an economic adviser to the Hong Kong government, pointed out that the impact of trade friction on Hong Kong’s economy has gradually emerged. If the trade friction continues to deteriorate, it will have a greater indirect impact on Hong Kong’s financial stability and trade atmosphere. He believes that it is difficult to predict whether Hong Kong’s economic growth in the fourth quarter will continue to be affected by the above factors.

According to ou xixiong’s explanation, the first round of tariff increase measures only affected 1.4% of Hong Kong’s exports, so the overall export performance in the third quarter is still good. However, after the United States announced the additional tariff increase on Chinese goods with a value of US $200 billion in September, Hong Kong’s export performance in the fourth quarter has been affected. If the tax rate increases to 25% in 2019, it will have a greater impact on exports. On the other hand, the inflationary pressure in Hong Kong continues to rise. The Hong Kong government has raised its annual basic inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.7%.

In the market, many market analysis institutions have lowered Hong Kong’s macroeconomic forecast. ING Bank lowered its Hong Kong economic forecast for the second time this year, reducing its GDP in the fourth quarter from 2.8% to 2.2%, and its annual forecast from 3.6% to 3.3%.

If the macro economy continues to slow down and inflation continues to rise, it will further erode private consumption power, weaken the wealth effect and affect people’s willingness to invest in real estate.

Secondly, the volatility of Hong Kong’s capital market has increased, affecting consumer sentiment. According to the analysis of the Hong Kong government, the fluctuation of the financial market and the significant decline of Hong Kong stocks since the second quarter will further crack down on consumption.

After the stock market goes down, the prices of residential and parking spaces in Hong Kong usually face a decline, which has been confirmed many times in the past experience. According to some brokers, when property prices rise, many owners will carry out two or even three press financing to cash out, and some of the funds will be invested in the stock market. Once the stock market falls more, these owners have to consider selling their buildings to cover their positions as soon as possible.

On the other hand, nearly half of the people in Hong Kong are engaged in financial related industries. If the stock market does not operate, the tide of unemployment may come soon. In this case, the transaction of buying houses and parking spaces will be reduced. Just imagine, if you lose your job, who will have the mind to buy a house, collect rent or buy a car? Don’t buy a car. Taking the subway is more physical exercise; As for buying a house, we have to let it go first - in case of unemployment, we will face the risk of mortgage default.

The third and most important signal is that the recent bidding of owners is no longer aggressive, and there are frequent cases of price reduction and transaction in the market. In the Taikoo Shing area of LAN Chou estate on Hong Kong Island, some real estate agents disclosed that many owners of second-hand buildings began to take the initiative to reduce prices by 5% - 20% in order to fund the replacement of buildings as soon as possible - and after the 2008 financial tsunami, the largest decline in Taikoo Shing’s houses was about 20%.

A real estate agent of Great Wall property believes that this is likely to be the first wave, mainly due to the selling of “house changers”. For such owners, the property they originally held has exceeded the time limit for paying “additional stamp duty”, so the price reduction may be a little larger, in order to sell as soon as possible, so as to enter the market at this time to buy a larger house.

The so-called “additional stamp duty” is an additional tax currently levied by the Hong Kong government on second-hand building transactions. It is mainly aimed at the property held within 3 years. If the transfer transaction is carried out, ad valorem tax ranging from 10% to 20% shall be paid according to the different holding years. The additional stamp duty does not specify whether it is borne by the seller or the buyer, but in the case of the seller’s market, it is usually borne by the buyer.

In the past, the price of second-hand housing in Hong Kong remained high, and the “additional stamp duty” was one of the main reasons. Once many second-hand owners sell their old buildings, if they want to buy a bigger house, they need to face a higher amount of potential “additional stamp duty”. When property prices go down, if